
The Biggest X-Factors in the 2020 CFP National Championship Game
Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne are among the familiar names who will headline the national championship game between No. 3 Clemson and No. 1 LSU at the Superdome on Monday, and the superstars will have an enormous impact on the result.
But every matchup, no matter the star power, has underrated aspects that can determine the game.
Individual players—or even specific portions of their skill sets—can play an important role. How an offense or a defense performs in a particular situation will help shape the championship.
The magnitude of these factors only increases in a clash of 14-0 teams and with a national title at stake.
Red-Zone Efficiency
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Numbers alone don't always provide a clear picture, but the following set of statistics tells a distinct story.
LSU's offense leads the FBS with a 97.1 red-zone scoring percentage, and its 78.6 touchdown rate is fifth. Clemson's defense ranks second nationally in both red-zone touchdown rate allowed (35.7 percent) and total red-zone trips allowed (28).
Earning the advantage in this category appears to be vital, especially after it saved Clemson in the semifinal against Ohio State.
For those interested in the opposite numbers, Clemson's scoring attack is ninth with a 75.4 red-zone touchdown rate. LSU's defense has a less inspiring 63.2 clip allowed, which ranks 84th. While it's fair to suggest blowouts may skew the number, LSU's opponents in close games—Texas, Florida, Auburn and Alabama—combined for 12 touchdowns in 19 red-zone trips to produce an identical 63.2 rate.
Clemson's Targets Not Named Tee Higgins or Justyn Ross
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Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross are outstanding receivers. Heading into the title game, they've combined for 117 catches with 1,904 yards and 21 touchdowns—and would've had more production if Clemson didn't wreck nearly every opponent.
But they're about to face major challenges.
LSU's starting cornerbacks are a potential first-round NFL draft pick in Kristian Fulton and a true freshman, Derek Stingley Jr., who secured a first-team AP All-American nod. Higgins and Ross won't be silenced, yet a 100-yard performance would be well-earned, for sure.
In the likely event Fulton and Stingley are disruptive to Clemson's top wideouts, quarterback Trevor Lawrence will be looking for another target to fill the void. Against the Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl, it was Travis Etienne, who scored twice on three receptions, and Amari Rodgers, who had a crucial 38-yard catch on the go-ahead drive.
Clemson needs at least one—and probably two—of Etienne, Rodgers, Diondre Overton, Joseph Ngata or even Lyn-J Dixon to make a couple of big plays.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire as a Receiver
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Clyde Edwards-Helaire barely played against Oklahoma in the Peach Bowl because of a hamstring injury. While the junior's relative absence didn't affect LSU's offense much, Chris Curry wasn't as confident a pass-catcher.
Edwards-Helaire's likely return provides that valuable element to an already-exemplary aerial attack.
Over a six-game stretch from Oct. 26 through the SEC title, the running back caught 38 passes for 325 yards and a touchdown. He notched seven-plus receptions against Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia and 49-plus yards in five games.
Clemson faces an immense challenge in trying to cover Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Terrace Marshall Jr. and Thaddeus Moss. If Edwards-Helaire is available, though, he will ensure LSU has a legitimate fifth pass-catcher on every snap.
Brent Venables' Plan for Isaiah Simmons
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Burrow is a smart quarterback. He's about to face a defense led by a brilliant coordinator in Brent Venables, who has the ultimate versatile player in Isaiah Simmons.
Listed at 6'4" and 230 pounds, Simmons does a little bit of everything for Clemson. The converted safety has a fluid position, lining up everywhere from an edge-rushing spot to a conventional linebacker position to nickelback and safety.
"You can't really work around him because he's everywhere," an opposing coach said, per ESPN's David M. Hale. "It felt like he was playing defensive line, linebacker and safety all in the same play. He's a problem. He wrecks any matchups you think you might be able to create. He chews up space in like two strides."
One play, he'll blitz off the edge. In the same alignment, he may defend the flat or carry a vertical route. From a deeper position, he's reliable in coverage yet is a punishing downhill tackler.
Simmons leads Clemson with 95 tackles, 14 stops for loss and seven sacks, and only Tanner Muse has more interceptions.
LSU wants to distribute the ball quickly anyway, but Burrow must account for Simmons on every snap.
Joe Burrow's Ability to Escape Pressure
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Is there anything more deflating for a defense than locking down receivers only for a quarterback to scramble and create a play?
We might as well refer to this as "The Joe Burrow Experience."
This season, LSU's quarterback has calmly maneuvered in the pocket or sidestepped potential sacks to keep a play alive. Entering the CFP, according to Pro Football Focus, Burrow had a 69.3 percent completion rate and 146.5 passer rating when pressured.
And with a 29-of-39 clip for 493 yards and seven scores against Oklahoma, he sure didn't get rattled against the Sooners either.
Additionally, while Burrow doesn't run often, he's lethally efficient with his legs. The senior has ripped off 24 gains of 10-plus yards and notching 35 first downs on 72 non-sack rushes.
If Burrow creates a couple of first downs when a play seems finished, it would be crushing for Clemson's defense.











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