B/R NBA Digest: David Stern's Legacy Is Basketball's Globalization
The new year brought with it the loss of an NBA legend as news broke on Jan. 1 that longtime commissioner David Stern had passed away.
From 1984 to 2014, Stern led the league through a transformative era that took us from Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird to LeBron James' Heatles.
Perhaps more than anything else, Stern's basketball legacy is largely about the globalization of the game under his watch. More on his incredible influence will be found later in this week's Digest.
Elsewhere around the league, we received news of a potential debut for Zion Williamson, a possible NBA return for Darren Collison and the emergence of Karl-Anthony Towns rumors.
Then, as always, you'll get your fill of Digest staples like Fun with Numbers, Lines of the Week and Matchups to Watch.
And finally, with All-Star voting now underway, we'll discuss whether the current selection process is the best way to go.
The Legacy of the NBA's Longest-Tenured Commissioner
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Stern took over as the NBA's commissioner in February 1984. That season, a total of 10 players born outside the United States combined for 17,092 minutes. That made up a total of 3.7 percent of the individual minutes logged during the campaign.
By the 2013-14 season, the number of players born outside the states had ballooned to 97. They combined for 112,382 minutes, or 18.9 percent of the total.
The expansion of the league's talent pool from essentially one country to the entire planet has had an unquestionably positive impact on the game of basketball.
Players from around the globe have brought varied and unique skill sets to the NBA. Arvydas Sabonis laid the groundwork for playmaking bigs like Nikola Jokic and Marc Gasol. Dirk Nowitzki completely redefined what a power forward is and helped usher in positionless basketball. Luka Doncic growing up in Spain's ACB led to him becoming perhaps the most polished rookie in NBA history.
Perhaps many of these changes were inevitable. Globalization has generally impacted just about every industry and field. But Stern made concerted efforts to reach out to previously untapped countries. And his desire to expand the game didn't stop there, as he played an integral part in the June 1997 founding of the WNBA.
The beauty of the current game has a lot to do with his influence.
Can Zion Lift the Pelicans to the Playoffs?
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On Thursday, The Athletic's Will Guillory reported that "Zion Williamson was able to go through a full practice today." And that came on the heels of a New Year's Eve report from Stadium's Shams Charania that Zion was on track for a January debut.
We're getting close.
For fans of the NBA, this is big. Williamson is coming off one of the most dominant individual seasons in the history of college basketball. Beyond his 22.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.1 steals and 1.8 blocks in just 30.0 minutes per game, he posted the best box plus/minus in Sports Reference's database.
All the things that made him unstoppable in college—size, explosiveness, touch around the rim and feel for defenses—looked every bit as real against NBA players in the preseason.
Unfortunately, his 23.3 points per game on 71.4 percent shooting in four outings for the New Orleans Pelicans wound up being a tease. Meniscus surgery robbed us of his unique game for a couple of months.
If he's healthy, he'll be well worth the wait. And his Pelicans may have done just enough to stay in the playoff hunt during his absence.
New Orleans is 11-23, but it's only four games out of eighth place in the Western Conference with the fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NBA. Combine all those factors and it's not hard to buy the nearly 50 percent chance at the playoffs the Pelicans are getting from FiveThirtyEight.
Williamson slots in naturally at the 4 alongside Derrick Favors at the 5. Since the latter returned from his own injury, New Orleans is 5-4 and eighth in net rating.
With those two anchoring the defense and Zion, Jrue Holiday and Brandon Ingram leading the charge on the other end, eighth place should be there for the taking.
Karl-Anthony Towns Should Be Nowhere Near the Trading Block
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Karl-Anthony Towns isn't set to hit free agency until 2023. That's more than four seasons away. So, while it makes plenty of sense for good teams in big markets to be interested, the Minnesota Timberwolves shouldn't even begin to entertain trade offers.
"He's under contract until 2023-24 but has less reason than [Giannis] Antetokounmpo to be thrilled with his team's trajectory," The Athletic's Ethan Strauss wrote. "This was a topic among multiple team executives at the recent G League Showcase, with a few relaying word that Towns is unhappy in Minnesota."
Player movement and freedom are important, but if players want to leave teams at the drop of a hat, they're free to sign one-year deals (after their rookie contracts expire, of course). If they get traded during a lengthy contract, they get to know what plenty of employees feel when transferred from one office to another.
The trade-off for NBA superstars is something that more traditional employees will never feel, though. The Timberwolves are paying Towns an average of $31.6 million annually from now until 2024. That's more than enough to buy the amount of time on the contract necessary to make him happy (assuming he is, in fact, unhappy).
Additionally, Towns has legitimate franchise-cornerstone talent. That's tough to come by even if you have a No. 1 pick. Minnesota should know. It drafted Andrew Wiggins first overall the year before it did the same with KAT. The difference between those two picks is immense.
The Wolves already checked the most important box for team-building: Find a superstar. If they trade him for a bunch of question marks, then there's no telling when that box will be filled again.
Who'll Land Darren Collison?
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This summer, free-agent point guard Darren Collison wrote for The Undefeated, "I have decided to retire from the NBA.
The news was, in a word, unexpected.
At the time, Collison was just a couple of months shy of his 32nd birthday. He was coming off back-to-back solid seasons for the Indiana Pacers in which he'd averaged 11.8 points, 5.7 assists and 1.2 threes with a 43.9 three-point percentage. He barely missed the top 50 in wins over replacement player during that period.
Less than a year later, Collison apparently wants back into the league.
"After a stunning retirement prior to free agency, veteran guard Darren Collison is considering a February return to the NBA—with the Lakers and Clippers emerging as his two preferred destinations," ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Wednesday.
Both those spots make sense for Collison, who went to high school about 40 miles east of Los Angeles and played his college ball at UCLA.
For the Lakers (who don't currently have a point guard playing at an above-average level, per BPM), Collison's steady hand as a floor general could stabilize a second unit that struggles to win minutes when LeBron James is on the bench. His shooting could also make him another assist target when sharing the floor with LeBron.
The Clippers (who have plenty of above-average point guard minutes from Patrick Beverley and more offensive punch from Lou Williams) would be even deeper with Collison on the books.
Both are legitimate contenders, and Collison doesn't have a ring, so his reported desire to come out of retirement makes sense.
Who Are This Year's All-Stars?
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The NBA revealed its first batch of All-Star voting results on Thursday. Some of the returns make plenty of sense. Others lead one to wonder how much say fans should even have in this process.
The Western Conference roster is fine at the top. If the voting ended today and fans were still entirely responsible, the starters would be Luka Doncic, James Harden, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis.
But if you scan a little further down, you'll find Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis in the top 10 for frontcourt players. Alex Caruso is eighth among guards.
Among the 308 players with at least 300 minutes, those four rank 53rd, 278th, 195th and 156th, respectively, in BPM. And those aren't the only problems out west.
Now BPM is just one number with its own issues. No one is suggesting it should be the sole arbiter here. And fans having a say in a game that's for the fans makes sense. But year after year, we seem to end up with some egregious snubs.
Kyrie Irving alone might have led to one of those in years past. Under the old system and if voting ended today, he'd start alongside Trae Young (whose own case might be shaky given his team's record), Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid and Pascal Siakam.
The league went a long way toward remedying this problem when it added player and media voting to the selection process for starters. Some objective criteria might still help.
Last year, Utah Jazz executive vice president of basketball operations Dennis Lindsey took such a proposal to commissioner Adam Silver, according to Jody Genessy of the Deseret News.
"Dennis Lindsey's proposed changes," 1280 AM's Scott Garrard tweeted. "Form an All-Star selection committee consisting of media, former players, scouts, former coaches, and analytics gurus. Much like NCAA Selection Committee. Voting should be transparent. Criteria is based on stats, win-loss, analytics, etc."
Perhaps a fan vote could still contribute to that somehow, but the process generally needs to be taken more seriously.
Hall of Fame cases are influenced by the number of All-Star nods a player gets. Agents may be to blame for this, but contract incentives are often tied to such accolades, too.
Let's come up with a system that gets it right.
Fun with Numbers
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Starting seems to agree with "Slo-Mo" Joe Ingles. After coming off the bench for all but one of the Utah Jazz's first 21 games, he's been a starter during Mike Conley's most recent absence.
Over the last 12 games, all of which feature him in the opening five, he's averaging 15.3 points, 5.8 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 3.3 threes and 1.1 steals with a 70.9 true shooting percentage. Utah is 9-3 in those games, and all this begs the question: What should the Jazz do when Mike Conley, whose season-long true shooting percentage is 49.1, returns from his hamstring injury?
The team just sent a significant package of players and picks to acquire Conley from the Memphis Grizzlies this summer. He's set to make over $30 million both this season and next. Bringing him off the bench probably isn't feasible.
Instead, Utah should probably keep starting Ingles at the expense of Royce O'Neale, who's been great all season. The difference between Ingles and O'Neale seems to be that the former may be more reliant on being surrounded by top-tier talent.
Ingles has averaged 7.6 points with a 49.6 true shooting percentage as a reserve. He's not the kind of player who can singlehandedly lift a bunch of teammates on offense. He's better as a complement.
And if the Jazz want to re-enter the conversation about legitimate contenders, they need this version of him.
From one red-hot scorer to another.
New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson remains the brightest spot for a team that has failed to produce many over the last 20 years. RJ Barrett, Kevin Knox and Frank Ntilikina were all picked higher in their respective drafts (each top-10 selections, compared to Robinson's No. 36 in 2018), but he has shown far more than any of them.
His season-long true shooting percentage of 70.5 leads the NBA. His 16.8 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.1 blocks per 75 possessions jump off the screen. He's the only Knick who's above-average in BPM, and his score of 5.4 is tied with Jimmy Butler for 11th in the NBA.
And he still hasn't even hit his 22nd birthday.
New York has been mired in awful play for years, but Robinson offers some hope for the future.
Lines of the Week
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The parade of 40-point performances slowed a bit this week, but James Harden still gave us another. And three of the game's best all-around contributors added to this season's growing triple-double count.
James Harden, Dec. 28: 39 minutes, 44 points (17-of-27 from the field, 6-of-10 from three, 4-of-9 from the line), 10 rebounds, six assists, three blocks, one steal, 37.2 game score
Harden has topped 40 points in 13 of the 33 games he's played this season. That puts him on pace for 30-plus games of at least 40 points.
Wilt Chamberlain is the only player in NBA history who topped that pace in a single season (and he did so six times).
Luka Doncic, Dec. 28: 30 minutes, 31 points (8-of-16 from the field, 5-of-8 from three, 10-of-10 from the line), 15 assists, 12 rebounds, two steals, 36.9 game score
Luka has played in 101 career games. His 31-point, 15-assist, 12-rebound masterpiece this week gave him two career games of at least 30 points and 15 assists, tying him with Michael Jordan and Tiny Archibald for the second-most in a player's first 101 games.
Nikola Jokic, Dec. 28: 33 minutes, 31 points (12-of-19 from the field, 2-of-5 from three, 5-of-7 from the line), 10 rebounds, 10 assists, one steal, 30.1 game score
So much for that slow start, huh? After this triple-double and another week of stellar play, Jokic is up to 20.8 points, 9.4 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game over 16 appearances since the start of December.
LeBron James, Jan. 1: 38 minutes, 31 points (11-of-21 from the field, 1-of-4 from three, 8-of-12 from the line), 13 rebounds, 12 assists, two steals, one block, 29.9 game score
It didn't take long for LeBron to snag his first triple-double as a 35-year old. Less than a week after his birthday, he went for 31, 13 and 12 against the Phoenix Suns.
His one triple-double at the age of 35 or older already ties him for 10th all-time. The all-time leader, Jason Kidd, had eight after his 35th birthday. LeBron might catch him before this season ends.
Matchups to Watch
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Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks, Jan. 8 at 7:30 p.m. ET
We may be desensitized to triple-doubles at this point. We have Russell Westbrook to thank for that. But this Wednesday gives us a battle between Doncic and Jokic, who are first and third, respectively, in total triple-doubles this season (LeBron is second).
This is also a good offense vs. good defense game. The Mavericks are tops in the league in points per 100 possessions. And while the Nuggets have been sliding recently, they're still top-10 in points allowed per 100 possessions.
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, Jan. 9 at 7:00 p.m. ET
FiveThirtyEight's projection model gives the Milwaukee Bucks a 49 percent shot to win the East. But if some other team from the conference is to reach the Finals, it might just be one of the two facing off Thursday.
The Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics are second and third, respectively, in that same forecast of odds to get out of the East.
And the philosophical differences in these two squads make for fun matchups. Boston's largely positionless and modern approach is a stark contrast to the bruising, jumbo lineups employed by the Sixers.
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, Jan. 9 at 9:30 p.m. ET
This game sells itself. After 11 seasons, eight All-Star appearances and one MVP, Russell Westbrook left the Oklahoma City Thunder this past summer after asking for a trade.
This is his first game back, but don't expect the kind of cold reception Kevin Durant received in his first away game against the Thunder.
The circumstances are different. When Paul George demanded out, the writing was on the wall for the dynamic point guard. Fans understood the Westbrook era had hit its ceiling, and it was hard to blame him for wanting to go to a contender rather than waiting out a rebuild in his 30s.
Now, the interesting twist here is that OKC isn't playing like a rebuilding team. Turns out, Chris Paul is still good. And the supporting cast has plenty of talent with Steven Adams, Danilo Gallinari and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
With the way the standings sit today, Houston and the Thunder are in range of each other for a first-round playoff series. If that happened, Westbrook might not get many more warm receptions at his old home arena.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, courtesy of Basketball Reference, NBA.com or Cleaning the Glass and current heading into games on Thursday.
