Gridiron Digest: The NFC Playoff Picture Has Turned Upside Down

The 49ers tumble from the first to the fifth seed in the NFC playoff race. The Seahawks move to the top of the heap. The 7-7 Cowboys are in position to not only host a playoff game but rest their starters in Week 17.

The NFC is a topsy-turvy world, and Gridiron Digest kicks off this week by breaking down the entire NFC playoff picture so you don't lose your equilibrium. Plus:

• The Texans and Titans prove yet again that no team wants to win the AFC South

• Tom Brady comes within two touchdowns of breaking an all-time record. But will Drew Brees beat him to it?

• A defensive duel between the Bills and Steelers brings a little clarity to the AFC wild-card race

• Some coaches on the hot seat make a case to keep their jobs, while others do not

...all that and much, much more!

Making Sense of the NFC Playoff Picture

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Leave it to the Falcons to mess everything up.

The 49ers were up 19-10 on Atlanta midway through the fourth quarter Sunday, and for a while the NFC made perfect sense. They were cruising toward the top seed in the playoffs. The Packers, Vikings and Seahawks all dispatched inferior opponents to stay in the chase. Even an unexpected Cowboys smackdown of the Rams provided clarity, keeping the Eagles from stinking up the conversation while reducing the inconsistent defending conference champions to long-shot outsiders.

But the Falcons are such screw-ups that they can't even lose when they are supposed to. After narrowing the lead to 19-17 and then falling behind 22-17 in the final minutes, they rallied to win 29-22 thanks to a late drive, a Julio Jones touchdown (after an apparent juggling Austin Hooper touchdown was overturned) and a fumble recovery on the final 49ers kickoff return.

Suddenly, the entire NFC playoff race was thrown into a state of confusion: 

• The 49ers plunged from the first seed to fifth, putting what looked like the NFC's best team for most of the season in position to go on the road in the playoffs.

• The Seahawks took over the top seed, with the Packers second and the Saints poised to gum things up further on Monday night.

• The Seahawks, 49ers and Packers are all 11-3, the Saints 10-3 and the Vikings 10-4, meaning almost anything can happen in the next two weeks, especially with head-to-head Packers-Vikings and 49ers-Seahawks matchups left on the schedule. 

• The Cowboys no longer look like a laughingstock.

• The Eagles do look like a laughingstock, but they remain in the race to capture the NFC East.

We'll have more coverage of the NFC playoff race (and the AFC race) throughout this edition of Gridiron Digest. But for now, let's set the stage for the next two weeks:

No. 1 seed: Seahawks

Remaining schedule: Home for the Cardinals and 49ers. 

Sunday's result: The Seahawks controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against what's left of the Panthers. The victory wasn't as close as the 30-24 final score would suggest.

The skinny: If the Seahawks look unimpressive for a top seed—their net point differential, for example, is just plus-26, and they're just a week removed from a lopsided loss to the Rams—it's because they had faced the second-toughest schedule in the NFL entering Week 15, per Football Outsiders. They have home-field advantage the rest of the way, have Russell Wilson and have a knack for squeaking out close wins. The close wins may be mostly the result of luck, but the other two are proven commodities. 

No. 2 seed: Packers

Remaining schedule: At the Vikings and Lions.

Sunday's result: It was a typical Packers victory. They built a 21-3 lead and then the offense took the rest of the afternoon off, allowing the Bears to claw their way back to 21-13 and come within a lateral drill of possibly forcing overtime. 

The skinny: Both the 49ers and Seahawks hold tiebreaker advantages over the Packers, making it hard for the Packers to climb to the top seed even if they win out. But a first-round bye and a second-round trip to Lambeau would make the Packers formidable playoff foes, despite their habit of playing about two-and-a-half quarters of outstanding football per week.

No. 3 seed: Saints

Remaining schedule: Home for the Colts on Monday, then at the Titans and Panthers. Like the Packers, the Saints will be forced to take care of their late-season business on the road.

The skinny: Last week's 48-46 barnburner may have done severe damage to both the Saints and the 49ers. The Saints lost defenders Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins for the year in that game and will be without several other starters on Monday night. The 49ers lost center Weston Richburg and were without Richard Sherman and others in Sunday's loss. Winning the NFC will be all about surviving the NFC.

No. 4 seed: Cowboys

Remaining schedule: At the Eagles, then home for Washington.

Sunday's result: The Cowboys racked up 263 rushing yards while Sean McVay outsmarted himself in a stunningly lopsided 44-21 Cowboys victory.

The skinny: The Cowboys could clinch the NFC East by beating the Eagles next week and then rest their starters in Week 17 and await a visit from some beaten-up team like the 49ers. That could easily lead to a first-round upset victory, which would probably save head coach Jason Garrett's job while allowing an inferior team to advance in the postseason due to flukes and technicalities.

In other words, you should root for the Eagles next week. Because if they somehow sneak into the playoffs, they ain't beating anybody.

No. 5 seed: 49ers

Remaining schedule: Home for the Rams, then at the Seahawks. That's quite a gauntlet for a team that already survived a Packers-Ravens-Saints gauntlet.

Sunday's result and the skinny: We'll cover the 49ers a little more in the next segment of Gridiron Digest.

No. 6 seed: Vikings

Remaining schedule: Home for the Packers and Bears.

Sunday's result: The Vikings defense forced seven turnovers in a 39-10 thrashing of the Chargers that few people saw because we were either watching Cowboys-Rams, biting our nails at the end of Falcons-49ers or waiting to see if the Browns would just give up and start attacking each other with sideline equipment during their loss to the Cardinals. 

The skinny: The Vikings can still win the NFC North if they win out and the Packers lose out, and they can earn a first-round bye a variety of ways. Adam Thielen's return and a pair of home games make them a team that you don't want to overlook, and "Kirk Cousins will let them down in a big game" isn't really a legitimate reason to write them off.

Still mathematically alive:

The Rams: They can still win the wild card if they win out and the Vikings lose out (by virtue of what would be an 8-4 conference record compared to what would be a 7-5 one). But before you get excited about them making playoff noise because they are the defending NFC champs, Aaron Donald is great, etc., keep in mind that the Rams lost to the Cowboys and Ravens by a combined 62 points over the past month.

The Eagles: Maybe if they win the NFC East, Jerry Jones will force Jason Garrett to eat a lightbulb before firing him. 

Upset Spotlight: Falcons 29, 49ers 22

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What happened

The 49ers did one big thing wrong and lots of little things wrong, jeopardizing their chances of winning the NFC West and earning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs:

• The big thing they did wrong: With Richard Sherman unavailable, they failed to figure out how to cover Julio Jones. Jones caught 13 passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns. He had both the game-winner and a 25-yard catch-and-run to set up the game-winner.

• The little things they did wrong: a Matt Breida fumble, a dropped interception, settling for a field goal after reaching the 3-yard line before halftime, inability to chew more clock on their final possession (and so forth).

The 49ers held a 19-10 lead in the fourth quarter after punching in a touchdown following a fumbled Falcons kickoff return. But they allowed a pesky team with a veteran quarterback and All-Pro wide receiver to remain in the game, and they paid for it.

What it means

We covered the 49ers playoff scenarios earlier in Gridiron Digest. 

This was not a panic-button loss by any means. They were without Sherman, Dee Ford and center Weston Richburg (out for the season), and they looked a little weary after their brutal two-game Baltimore-New Orleans road trip, which is understandable

But that's December playoff football: There are no breaks left in the schedule unless you make one by securing a first-round bye, and many teams are battling serious injuries. It's up to the untested 49ers to prove that they can handle it.

What's next

The 49ers end their season with a visit from the Rams and a trip to Seattle. The Falcons host the Jaguars before ending the year in Tampa. They could end the season with six wins in their final eight games.

Game Spotlight: Texans 24, Titans 21

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What happened

It was an AFC South classic: two teams knotted for first place squaring off in mid-December, both playing as if they don't quite want to actually win the division.

A long opening Texans drive ended with an interception at the goal line. After a blocked Titans field goal and some back-and-forth punting, a long Titans drive ended with a tip-drill interception at the goal line and a Whitney Mercilus return to set up a Deshaun Watson-to-Kenny Stills touchdown. The Titans later battled back from a 14-0 deficit to tie the game with the help of yet another drive-killing interception, this one in the end zone. 

Ultimately, the Texans took a 24-14 lead in the fourth quarter and then held off a Titans rally to demonstrate that they want the AFC South more, or at least don't want it a little less.

What it means

The result increased the Texans' odds of making the playoffs to 95 percent and decreased the Titans' to 37 percent, per initial calculations from Aaron Schatz at Football Outsiders. But beyond the percentages, both of these teams reminded us yet again of who they are. 

The Texans have been able to beat wild-card-caliber competition for years but are vulnerable to both big-game losses (it remains to be seen whether their victory over the Patriots three weeks ago taught us more about them or the Patriots) and the occasional meltdown against an opponent like the Broncos. Assuming they win the AFC South, they will be the team that the wild cards hope to face in the first round. 

The Titans are on pace for their fourth straight 9-7 finish, despite all of the enthusiasm surrounding Ryan Tannehill's hot streak. The three victories since their bye came against Jaguars, Colts and Raiders opponents in various stages of collapse; if they hoped to prove that they're a better team than they were during the Marcus Mariota era, Sunday was the day to do it. Instead, they played like a second-place team when it mattered.

What's next

The Titans and Texans face off again in Houston in two weeks. Before that, the Texans visit the unpredictable Buccaneers, while the Titans host a Saints team that is likely to have a lot to play for.

Game Spotlight: Bills 17, Steelers 10

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What happened

The Bills clinched a playoff berth by doing the same things they have done all season: forcing turnovers on defense, doing a little more than the bare minimum on offense and beating an opponent that wasn't really very good.

The Bills defense intercepted Steelers rookie quarterback Devlin Hodges four times, with two of the interceptions thwarting late fourth-quarter drives deep into Bills territory. Josh Allen threw one touchdown pass and rushed for another, leading the Bills 70 yards on six plays for the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter after struggling to move the ball for much of the game.

It was a hard-hitting, punt-heavy contest, which is a nice way of saying that it was rather dull and that neither of these teams would be anywhere near the playoff race if they played in the NFC North or West.

What it means

Both teams have 8-6 records, but the Steelers hold a wild-card tiebreaker advantage over the Titans based on a 6-4 record against AFC opponents (the Titans are 6-5). The Steelers also have a relatively easy schedule with the Jets next week and a Ravens team that could be resting its starters in Week 17. The Titans have the Saints at home and then travel to face a Texans team they just lost to at home.

While a playoff berth is still very possible, the Steelers' biggest concern coming out of Sunday night is how easily the Bills defense exposed Hodges' limitations. Hodges is starting to look like the inexperienced, undrafted player that he is, and the Steelers may have run out of Wildcat wrinkles and defensive heroics. 

When it comes to the Bills, at this point you are either a table-smashing superfan who believes Allen is developing into Tom Brady and that the road to the Super Bowl is paved with narrow victories over mediocre opponents, or you are like the rest of us who know the Bills will be knocked out of the playoffs the moment they face an opponent that cannot be beaten by a can-do spirit and 139 passing yards. In a conference full of underachievers like the Browns and Jets, it has been fun to watch the Bills reach the playoffs just by blocking and tackling properly and not beating themselves every week. But reality sets in when January arrives.

What's next

It's a Le'Veon Bell Revenge Game (or, more probably, a Le'Veon Bell Begs His Old Team to Take Him Back Game) as the Steelers visit the Jets.

The Bills get to visit the Patriots and say, "Hey, now we're a playoff team just like you!" And the Patriots will smile patiently and give them a cookie before trouncing them. 

Inside the Numbers

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Tom Brady, quarterback, Patriots: 15-of-29 for 128 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions

Brady moved past Drew Brees and into second place on the career passing touchdown list with 538. He now trails Peyton Manning by just one touchdown. Of course, Brees plays on Monday night and has 537, so he could pass both Brady and Manning with a typical performance. Brady and Brees are likely to jockey back-and-forth for first place on the all-time list for the rest of the season and beyond. 

Philip Rivers has the most passing touchdowns of any active quarterback besides Brady and Brees, with 395 after Sunday's Chargers loss to the Vikings. Rivers will never catch Brady and Brees, and Eli Manning (366 after Sunday) and Ben Roethlisberger (363) won't either. 36-year-old Aaron Rodgers (362 career touchdowns) can average 35 touchdowns per year for the next five years and still end up with 537 career touchdowns, one less than Brady has now.

So let's celebrate Brady's career accomplishments and politely pretend his numbers Sunday against a terrible opponent don't look like the sort of stats Case Keenum would produce against the Legion of Boom during a monsoon. 

Adrian Peterson, running back, Washington: 16 carries for 66 yards and one TD

Peterson tied Walter Payton for fourth place on the career rushing touchdown list with his 110th on Sunday, a 10-yard cutback against an overpursuing Eagles defense. Peterson also nosed past Curtis Martin on the career rushing yardage list: Peterson now has 14,102 to Martin's 14,101.

Peterson is like Brady in reverse. He is playing about as well as he ever has during his late career, but the organization around him is terrible. Brady…well, we've already belabored the point. 

Kenyan Drake, running back, Cardinals: 22 carries for 137 yards and four TDs

Drake had runs of 21, 17, 16, 14, and 12 yards in the game, in addition to touchdown runs both up the middle and on option pitches. 

Since coming over from the Dolphins, he has 87 carries for 417 yards—4.8 yards per carry—and five rushing touchdowns, plus 22 catches for 130 yards in six games. Add him to Ryan Tannehill and DeVante Parker as evidence that Adam Gase was a bad coach who held back some effective playmakers in Miami. Pretty soon, we're gonna need an evidence table with a 100-foot diameter. 

Greg Ward Jr., wide receiver, Eagles: Seven catches for 61 yards and a TD

The Eagles suited up just three wide receivers Sunday: practice squad call-up Robert Davis (who was not targeted for a pass), rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (who was targeted twice, dropping a catchable touchdown bomb) and Ward, a former college quarterback at Houston and three-year training camp regular who finally got called up from the practice squad after (takes deep breath) DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor got hurt and Mack Hollins and Jordan Matthews were released for general uselessness.

Ward, like the other remaining Eagles receivers, was nearly invisible for three-and-a-half quarters as Carson Wentz distributed passes to tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert and backs Miles Sanders and Boston Scott. But Ward caught four passes for 40 yards and a touchdown on the final comeback drive, sparing the Eagles the embarrassment of losing to Washington while keeping their (ugh) playoff hopes alive.

A bronze statue of Ward will be unveiled in front of Lincoln Financial Field on Tuesday.

Tank Watch

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Giants 36, Dolphins 20

Say what you will about Eli Manning: He's not a sub-.500 career quarterback. Manning's career record fell to 116-117 after Monday night's loss to the Eagles, so he stormed back Sunday to prove how historically average his career has been in the most Eli Manning way possible: by overcoming three interceptions to beat a terrible opponent that was incapable of moving the football for most of the afternoon.

Spoiling their chance at the top draft pick by playing for pride under Eli down the stretch was the most predictably Giants-like development of this miserable Giants season. They may not even finish at the top of the draft order among teams unlikely to select a quarterback, thanks to Sunday's other developments.

Eagles 37, Redskins 27

Watching NFC East divisional games this season is like watching cataract surgery on some educational cable channel. Every play of this game was either an Eagles defensive blunder, a Carson Wentz fumble—some of which were recovered by the Eagles, ruled incomplete passes or carried away and raised as its offspring by a mother opossum—or Washington defenders leaving Eagles tight ends and running backs wide-open for completions even though the Eagles didn't bother suiting up any wide receivers. 

Washington, the Giants and Dolphins are now knotted at 3-11, two games off the Tank Watch pace-setter.

Patriots 34, Bengals 13

The Bengals took an early 10-7 lead, but Andy Dalton threw four interceptions to mark a fitting and final end to his overextended Bengals career while allowing the Patriots to prove that they are still a great team as long as they face nothing but last-place competition. 

The Bengals are two games ahead of the Tank Watch field at 1-13 with two games left to play. But because draft order is determined by overall strength-of-schedule, they don't have the top pick in next year's draft sewn up just yet. 

What's next

Tune in next week for an epic loser-takes-all Tank Watch double feature: The Bengals are at the Dolphins and the Giants at Washington! Gridiron Digest will provide all the coverage you need. Please do not risk your emotional health and well-being by trying to watch these games yourself!

Awards Digest

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Defender of the week: Stephon Gilmore's first interception came at the start of the third quarter when the Patriots were clinging to a 13-10 lead over the Bengals. It gave the Patriots the ball near midfield, setting up a touchdown drive. His second interception was a pick-six on the next possession, giving the Patriots a 27-10 lead that turned the game into a laugher. Gilmore now has six interceptions this year, two of them pick-sixes. And he hasn't been scored on. He has been the Patriots' most valuable player and deserves NFL Defensive Player of the Year consideration. Tom Brady should give Gilmore an extra-thoughtful Christmas present this year, like some autographed TB12 merchandise.

Danielle Hunter of the Vikings earns honorable mention for his two forced fumbles against the Chargers, one of which was returned for a touchdown by teammate Ifeadi Odenigbo before halftime to help the Vikings take control of the game. Hunter may be the most underrated defensive player in the NFL, except for Gilmore. 

Offensive line of the week: How 'bout that Cowboys offensive line of Tyron Smith, Xavier Su'a-Filo, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin and La'El Collins? They helped both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard rush for over 100 yards while holding Aaron Donald and company without a sack. 

Special teamer of the week: Houston's Angelo Blackson blocked a 44-yard Ryan Succop field-goal attempt early in the Texans-Titans game. He shares this award with a pair of teammates who made timely special teams plays in the narrow Titans victory: Lonnie Johnson Jr. broke up a pass on a fake punt, and Justin Reid recovered a late-game onside kick to stymie a Titans rally.

Johnny Hekker fake punt of the week: You know the Rams were having a bad day when even the fake punt was a struggle. Hekker completed a five-yard laser to Mike Thomas on a 4th-and-4 fake punt, but Thomas appeared to fumble the ball, and a Cowboys defender pounced on it. The ball was awarded to the Rams after a replay review, which was just about the only thing that went their way after the first quarter. Hekker is now 13-of-22 for 184 yards with one touchdown, one interception and 13 first downs for his career as a passer. 

Meaningless fantasy touchdown of the week: Todd Gurley II had nine carries for 11 yards before running seven yards for a touchdown to cut the Rams deficit to 37-13 late in the fourth quarter. He then let a two-point conversion pass bounce off his chest in the end zone, but a Cowboys penalty gave him a second chance, and he dove in for two more precious fantasy points. In fairness to Gurley, he also had a receiving touchdown early in the game, and it's not like anyone on the Rams did much worth celebrating (receiver Cooper Kupp had an even later, more meaningless touchdown, and tight end Tyler Higbee padded his stats late to pass 100 receiving yards for the third straight week).

Fantasy leech of the week: Dalvin Cook injured his shoulder against the Chargers, and backup Alexander Mattison was inactive, leaving third-stringer Mike Boone to carry 15 times for 56 yards and two late-game touchdowns in a 39-10 Vikings rout. Expect to see more of Boone unless the Vikings want to stumble into the playoffs with Cook too injured to function and the offense poised to collapse against a quality opponent. Which, come to think of it, is exactly the sort of thing the Vikings often end up doing.

Best supporting actors in someone else's highlight: On the stat sheet, it reads as a 23-yard Tom Brady touchdown pass to James White. On the field, the play consisted of a 15-foot toss by Brady (that's still within the big man's range) followed by an open-field wallop by Joe Thuney to obliterate one Bengals defender, a road-paving block by Ted Karras to neutralize another defender as White breezed past him and Shaq Mason shoving Bengals safety Shawn Williams all the way into the end zone so White could coast in for the score. 

Mystery touch of the week, part 1: Here's a rundown of everyone who touched the ball during a wild final play of the 21-13 Packers victory over the Bears:

• Mitchell Trubisky tossed a slant to Tarik Cohen...

• Cohen lateraled back to Trubisky, who somehow juked out defenders Kyle Fackrell and Jaire Alexander with a super-slow motion Lamar Jackson impersonation...

• Trubisky eventually lateraled to reserve tight end Jesper Horsted, who rumbled for about nine yards...

• And Horsted fumbled Holy Roller-style near the end zone. The ball rolled between teammates Allen Robinson II and Anthony Miller and into the clutches of defender Tramon Williams, sparing the world the prospect of the Bears sneaking back into the playoff chase thanks to a play in which Trubisky handled the football twice.

Mystery touch of the week, part 2: Here's a rundown of everyone who touched the ball during that wild final play of the 29-22 Falcons victory over the 49ers:

• Deebo Samuel fielded a squib kick and pitched the ball back to Richie James Jr....

• James gained some yardage before getting surrounded by defenders and pitching back to Raheem Mostert...

• Mostert said, "The heck with doing things logically," winded up and heaved the ball across the field with all of his might to…Samuel? Samuel was the only teammate within about 20 yards of the throw. Mostert may have just been trying to throw the ball into the stands...

• Falcons receiver Olamide Zaccheaus won the footrace to retrieve the loose ball for a touchdown.

For whatever it's worth, the Bears are clearly much better at playground pitch-and-pray plays than the 49ers.

Digest Sportsbook

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Lines on the move: The Cowboys opened as three-point favorites against the Rams and then plunged to 1.5-point dogs late in the week because, per Patrick Everson of Covers.com, "pros and public alike have slammed Rams at multiple price points." The game ended up as a pick 'em at many books near kickoff thanks to some Cowboys buyback. Both Pros and Joes took a bath in a surprisingly lopsided Cowboys win. The Cowboys open as one-point favorites on the road against the Eagles next week; that line looks like it will quickly climb to about -3 once the public digests this week's results, so jump aboard early if you like the Cowboys (we do). The Rams opened +6 against San Francisco next week; we'll let the dust settle before we form an opinion on that one. 

Push it real good: Seahawks -6 looked like an easy win when they took a 30-10 lead over the Panthers midway through the fourth quarter. But Carolina scored two late touchdowns after the Seahawks eased off the gas pedal for a 30-24 final. Not everyone who bet the Seahawks escaped with a push, though: Gridiron Digest wagered Seahawks -6.5 from a New Jersey sportsbook before kickoff and felt the pain when Curtis Samuel hauled in a Panthers touchdown with 3:15 to play. But we were sweating from the moment Jason Myers missed the extra point after an easy early-game Seahawks touchdown drive, anyway. Missed extra points and 6-6.5 point spreads are a guaranteed formula for heartburn.

That's one way to cover: Washington appeared to be poised to cover for the fourth straight week when it trailed the Eagles 31-27 (the Eagles were seven-point favorites) in the waning seconds. But Dwayne Haskins attempted a desperate lateral on the game's final play, and Nigel Bradham scooped up the loose ball and rumbled for a game-clinching and spread-covering Eagles touchdown.

Overwatch: The Buccaneers are 11-3 at clearing the over this season after beating the Lions 38-17. The Bucs-Lions number was a lowly 46, thanks to third-stringer David Blough and the hapless Lions offense. Next week's over for the Bucs against the Texans opened at 53. We think they'll clear it faster than you can say "four Jameis Winston touchdowns and at least 14 points off turnovers."

Undertale: Sportsbooks did what they could when Arrowhead Stadium was blanketed in unexpected morning snow. They dropped the over from 45.5 down to the 42.5-43 range (books vary) to account for the wintry conditions, but even wagerers who jumped on the lower under were rewarded with a 23-3 field-goal fest. Sadly, Gridiron Digest parlayed the under with the Broncos +9.5, assuming that the slippery conditions would slow Tyreek Hill down a step. Hill was indeed a step slower, as was everyone on the Broncos defense, which means Hill remained the fastest dude on the field by about two steps.

Monday night action: The Colts are +10 at the Saints. Digest Sportsbook hates double-digit spreads, especially when the underdog isn't among the NFL's bottom feeders. The Saints are just 2-4 against the spread as home favorites this season and are injury-riddled on defense, with Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins out for the year and Vonn Bell and Patrick Robinson (among others) out Monday night. The Colts are the closest thing Digest Sportsbook has seen to a Monday night lock all year. 

Betting odds courtesy of TeamRankings.com.

Coaching Hot Seat Digest

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Happy holidays! Let's talk about dudes losing their jobs!

Probably Gone

Doug Marrone, Jaguars

Marrone acknowledged that he was coaching for his job (though it was couched in non-committal "everyone in the NFL is always fighting for their jobs" rhetoric) after the Jaguars lost their fifth straight game by 17 or more points last week. Their comeback victory against the Raiders on Sunday was adorable, but organizational decisions should not be based on Gardner Minshew II's groovy Tebow ability to play poorly for three quarters and then catch fire in the final 10 minutes. 

The team's problems aren't all Marrone's fault, of course. The Jaguars are now 35-75 in seven seasons with Dave Caldwell as general manager, and it's hard to tell precisely what Tom Coughlin contributes to the organization these days. It's amazing how quickly this franchise lapsed back to irrelevance after the brief magic of 2017.

Dan Quinn, Falcons

There was a steady "give Quinn one more chance" drumbeat among the Atlanta media entering this week: Here's the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's D. Orlando Ledbetter advocating for Quinn not once but twice, invoking the likes of Chuck Noll and Browns-era Bill Belichick as a caution against being too hasty with a struggling coach. And here's The Falcoholic's James Rael playing devil's advocate in the usual ways: The candidate pool isn't spectacular, lots of stuff went wrong that was outside the coach's control this year, and so forth. 

The "Keep Quinn" arguments sounded a lot like the sort of thing we write about a 4-9 team because you have to write something about a 4-9 team. (We've been there.) But the Falcons are now 4-2 in their last six games, with road wins over the Saints and 49ers. Their late-season surge looks like more than just a brief jolt of "win one for ol' Coach" energy. If they win their final two games, ownership should consider keeping Quinn and giving him one more chance to win with this veteran core.

Pat Shurmur, Giants

Ron Rivera's availability, his relationship with GM Dave Gettleman and Shurmur's drab sub-mediocrity have resulted in inevitable speculation that Rivera will replace Shurmur at approximately 9:06 a.m. on December 30. Frankly, it's not a terrible idea, and beating the Dolphins on Sunday shouldn't factor into management's decision.

Shurmur's record as a head coach is now 18-45. As an offensive coordinator or head coach, his teams finished in the top 10 in scoring three times in 11 years: twice as Chip Kelly's wingman for the Eagles and once during Case Keenum's improbable run with the Vikings. If he is dismissed by the Giants, look for Shurmur to use this glowing resume to remain an NFL coordinator for most of the next 20 years, and lead his offenses into the top 10 about three more times.

Probably Safe

Vic Fangio, Broncos

Attention, new coaches! If you want to ensure job security in your first season, stick with your mediocre starting quarterback as long as possible (until he's injured, criticizes the game plans or somehow injures himself by criticizing the game plans), then insert the obscure backup rando until fans cannot take any more and then unleash the talented rookie when expectations have hit rock bottom around Thanksgiving. The rook is sure to provide some late-season wins and thrills, making management forget that the team was in turmoil in midseason and granting you another season so the rookie can benefit from "continuity."

Adam Gase, Jets

The perfect coach for an ownership family that's not really paying attention and doesn't know what it's doing, anyway. 

Freddie Kitchens, Browns

Kitchens has literally done nothing right this season, from developing Baker Mayfield to managing games to handling controversies professionally to, per Mary Kay Cabot, communicating with his assistant coaches. Yet NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reported on Sunday morning that the Browns plan to stick with Kitchens. Sunday's 38-24 loss to a Cardinals team with a less experienced coach and quarterback and a far less talented roster should prompt the Haslams to reconsider their position. 

The best argument for keeping Kitchens is that this year of stupefyingly awful coaching will somehow transform him into a good coach. This is the same logic that Browns ownership has applied to coaches, executives and quarterbacks for many years, and it both explains the state of the organization and speaks volumes about Browns ownership.

Matt Patricia, Lions

Patricia delivered an animated sideline tirade when the Lions trailed the Bucs 21-3 in the second quarter. The motivational tactic "worked," sort of: The Lions cut their deficit to 24-17 and didn't give up another touchdown until the fourth quarter of what ended as a 38-17 Bucs rout. 

Patricia gets graded on the curve of "made the Lions semi-competitive for about a half hour by screaming at them" because the team is down to third-string quarterback David Blough and riddled with major injuries at nearly every position. Also, Lions GM Bob Quinn chose Patricia, and firing him after two years would be admitting a mistake. So Patricia should be safe to rant and rave on the sideline and receive credit for slightly mitigating blowouts for at least one more year.    

Life's Greatest Mystery

Jason Garrett, Cowboys

As Sunday reminded us, this dude has nine lives, plus an ability to beat Sean McVay-types by letting them overthink things while Garrett himself does as little thinking as possible.  

Point-Counterpoint

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Spygate 2.0: NFL investigates a videographer contracted by the Patriots who was caught taping the Bengals sideline during a game.

Point: NFL investigators think the optimal strategy for Clue is throwing the cards away and announcing, "No crime has been committed here," so I'm sure this will be sorted out quickly and to everyone's satisfaction. 

Counterpoint: Maybe the Patriots should make their super-secret video crew follow around the scouts in charge of selecting wide receivers to figure out what the heck they are doing wrong.

Le'Veon Bell bowls a 251 after being sent home by the Jets for an illness ahead of last week's Dolphins game.

Point: Bowling a 251 is actually the greatest athletic accomplishment by a Jets player since Super Bowl III. Bell should get a 16-pound game ball. 

Counterpoint: Bowling instead of working? Hooking up with young ladies? Contracting mono? Are the Jets a football team or a reboot of Ferris Bueller's Day Off? Come to think of it, Adam Gase would make a great principal Ed Rooney...

Roger Goodell claims Colin Kaepernick passed up an "incredible opportunity" when he chose not to participate in the NFL's hastily assembled November workout.

Point: "Incredible opportunity" is the same language my brother-in-law uses when he tries to talk me into his multilevel marketing scheme. And Goodell is just as convincing as he is.  

Counterpoint: The mouse behind my cupboard also keeps passing up the incredible opportunity to eat the peanut butter I lay out on that cardboard rectangle under the dangling copper wire. 

Giants release Janoris Jenkins for calling a fan a "retard" on Twitter.

Point: "Cancel culture" has really gotten out of control if an overpaid, mediocre cornerback playing out the string on a nearly last-place team is expected to act civil and professional and avoid broadcasting derogatory language across the internet, am I right?

Counterpoint: No, you are not. And Jenkins' biggest problem is that he puts about as much effort into his internet discourse as he puts into his tackling.