X

Week 14 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

Zach Buckley@@ZachBuckleyNBANational NBA Featured ColumnistDecember 5, 2019

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo looks to pass the ball during the first half of an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Dec. 1, 2019, in Baltimore, Md. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)
Gail Burton/Associated Press

It's Week 14 of the 2019 NFL season. 

How's your wallet looking? Hopefully, the football (or betting) gods have treated you well so far.

However, there's still plenty to be made heading into the final stretch, so let's break down the latest spreads from Caesars Sportsbook and offer expert advice on how to handle each one.

                

Week 14 NFL Odds

Dallas Cowboys (-3.0) at Chicago Bears

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-8.5)

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-9.0)

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-13.0)

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5)

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)

Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-12.5)

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.0) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3.0)

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Oakland Raiders

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+0.0)

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5)

                

Spread Advice

Play the Cowboys, Lay the Points

Forget what the 6-6 record suggests; the Cowboys are elite.

They combine the eighth-best scoring offense with the eighth-best scoring defense. Add both sides of the ball together, and Dallas enjoys a robust plus-74 scoring differential, the sixth-highest mark in the league.

For context, the Cowboys have a better point differential than both the Saints and Seahawks, who each sport seemingly pristine 10-2 records.

Dallas needs a win. It still controls the NFC East, but it's only a game up on the Eagles.

The Bears, meanwhile, finds themselves third in the NFC North, and it would be a lot worse if not for scheduled victories over the Lions (twice) and Giants, their only triumphs since September.

Chicago also holds a forgettable plus-4 point differential, highlighting the talent gap between these two .500 teams.

If you sat these rosters side-by-side, you'd expect a blowout. So, it's a small sacrifice to give the three points here, even if the annual speculation surrounding Jason Garrett's job security has again sparked up thanks to cryptic comments from owner Jerry Jones to KRLD Radio (h/t Fox News).

Jon Machota @jonmachota

Jerry Jones: “In my opinion, Jason Garrett will be coaching in the NFL next year.”

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Bears 20

                

Pounce on Jags As Home 'Dogs

Jacksonville getting points at home here is bizarre.

Yes, the Jags are mired in a four-game losing streak, but they spent two-plus games in this stretch trying and failing to reintegrate Nick Foles into the offense. With Gardner Minshew II (and his killer mustache) back under center, their offense should be in great shape.

Minshew has thrown 14 touchdowns against five interceptions. Leonard Fournette has tallied 1,433 scrimmage yards and three scores. DJ Chark Jr. has established himself as a top-shelf target with 58 receptions for 881 yards and eight touchdowns. This unit has weapons.

The Chargers, on the other hand, have shown little more than an uncanny ability to find new ways to give away games. Oh, and if you're worried about the Jags' four-game skid, it's worth noting L.A. has dropped three in a row and six of its last eight, so it's not like momentum is on its side.

By name recognition and passing yardage, Philip Rivers would seem the superior passer. But the veteran has become a turnover machine (15 interceptions, four fumbles), and Minshew takes care of the football.

The Jags have enough to not only cover here, but also to win the game outright.

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Chargers 17

                

Take the 'Niners and the Points

The gauntlet goes on for the 49ers, who face their third nine-plus-win team in as many weeks. After steamrolling the Packers, they fell a field goal shy of the Ravens and now head to New Orleans for a matchup with the red-hot Saints.

The Bayou's finest have won three in a row, a spurt in which they've captured the NFC South title and, for now at least, risen to the top of the entire conference.

With Drew Brees throwing darts, Michael Thomas catching everything and Alvin Kamara punishing defenses as both a rusher and receiver, the Saints boast the weaponry to dismantle opponents in every fashion.

But San Francisco's body of work speaks for itself. The Niners have 10 wins in 12 tries, and their only "stumbles" were against the Ravens and Seahawks—by a total of six points. Whether in the friendly confines of the Bay Area or away from home, they aren't the kind of team typically on the wrong side of the point spread.

"Anytime I can get points by taking the 49ers this year, it'll be really hard to turn down," CBS Sports' Tyler Sullivan wrote.

This is shaping up to be yet another nail-biter, but the Niners look better on paper—plus-166 scoring differential to the Saints' plus-50—and our crystal ball says they'll look better on the gridiron, too.

Prediction: 49ers 31, Saints 27