Ranking Remaining Games with the Biggest College Football Playoff Implications
Ten teams still have a realistic path to the 2019 College Football Playoff, and Alabama is the only member of that group that has already been eliminated from playing in its conference championship.
Even though we often talk as though three of the four spots are already locked up and there are only a couple of teams vying for the No. 4 seed, there is a ridiculous number of possible scenarios still in play with just two weeks remaining.
So many scenarios, in fact, that we decided to rank the 10 most important games remaining and still had a few potentially critical games left on the cutting room floor. There are four games this week—Utah vs. Colorado, Baylor at Kansas, Clemson at South Carolina and Georgia at Georgia Tech—which could be massive if the heavy favorite takes a loss. They didn't crack the top 10, though, because they most likely won't matter.
The primary basis for this ranking boils down to the answer to one question:
All other things being equal, how much does this game matter?
Take the Pac-12 championship, for example. It might be important if Utah wins and things break the right way in the other four conference championships, but it also might not matter in the slightest—especially if Utah loses the aforementioned game to Colorado and it ends up being Oregon vs. USC for the Pac-12 title.
Conversely, the SEC championship is going to be critical, regardless of what happens elsewhere.
With that in mind, let's take a look ahead at what is guaranteed to be an entertaining finish to the season.
Listed rankings are from the Week 13 CFP Top 25. Oregon certainly isn't going to be No. 6 anymore, but that's the only one that figures to change substantially on Tuesday night.
10. The 7OT Rematch
1 of 10
Game Details: Week 14, Texas A&M at No. 1 LSU, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
Playoff Implications
If LSU wins out, it will either be the No. 1 or No. 2 overall seed, depending on what Ohio State does in its final two games. If both teams are 13-0, it's probably the Buckeyes at No. 1 and the Tigers at No. 2, but there's plenty of time left for that debate.
If LSU happens to lose this game, the Tigers are far from dead. Bounce back to defeat Georgia in the SEC championship and they'll be right as rain, finishing no worse than No. 3 in the final rankings.
The opposite scenario—beat Texas A&M; lose to Georgia—would also probably be enough for LSU to finish in the Top Four. Things could get dicey for the Bayou Bengals if Clemson wins out and Minnesota beats Ohio State in the Big Ten championship. Picking the "least deserving" team from that five-team pool would be a tough, controversial decision for the committee, but LSU would still have an argument.
So as long as LSU doesn't lose both this game and the subsequent game against Georgia, there's a good chance it will get a shot at playing for the national championship. Just a matter of seeding.
Prediction: LSU 38-31
This was an instant classic one year ago, and the Aggies aren't just going to roll over and die this year, either. They have gone 0-4 against teams with winning records, but they put up good fights against Georgia and Auburn and weren't completely embarrassed by Alabama or Clemson. They ultimately drop to 0-5. However, not before further exposing an LSU defense that has allowed at least 530 yards three times already this season.
9. The Iron Bowl
2 of 10
Game Details: Week 14, No. 5 Alabama at No. 15 Auburn, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
Playoff Implications
The obvious implication is that Alabama needs to win this game if it is to have any hope of backing into the playoff. The Crimson Tide do not yet have a victory over a current CFP Top 25 team, but a road win over No. 15 Auburn would be a nice end-of-season boost to this iffy one-loss resume.
Not only does Alabama need to win, but it probably needs to do so convincingly while getting a strong showing from new starting quarterback Mac Jones. He has been great against Arkansas and Western Carolina (28-of-34, 510 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT), but we have yet to see what Alabama looks like against a moderately competent opponent sans Tua Tagovailoa. If Jones struggles and the Crimson Tide squeak out an ugly win, it won't do much to help a case that previously was constructed on the basis of an unstoppable Tagovailoa-led offense.
The less obvious implication is the Auburn ripple effect around the nation. The Tigers beat Oregon by six points on a neutral field to open the season and lost to LSU and Georgia by three and seven, respectively. Oregon is unofficially eliminated at this point, but that's still a quality win in Auburn's book. Thus, Alabama could get quite the transitive feather in its cap by blowing out an opponent that played well against three of the best teams in the country.
Alabama also already boasts the most convincing victory over Texas A&M, which played (and lost to) Clemson, Auburn and Georgia and plays LSU next week. Alabama may have lost some style points arguments with Tagovailoa out, but it could be in great shape in the common opponents department.
Prediction: Alabama 27-17
Auburn has a solid defense, but I can't put a vote of confidence behind an offense that averaged 295.0 total yards and 15.7 points in losses to Florida, LSU and Georgia. Jones is an unproven commodity at quarterback for Alabama, but no one is holding an offense with Najee Harris, Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle and Co. below 20 points. Bama finds a way and stays in the playoff conversation until the bitter end.
8. Pac-12 Championship
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Game Details: Week 15, No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 7 Utah or No. 23 USC, Time and Network TBD
Playoff Implications
This one got a whole lot less important with Oregon's loss to Arizona State, but it could still matter.
That's only the case if Utah beats Colorado this week, though, and only if the Utes proceed to defeat Oregon in this game, too. Short of that, every Pac-12 team will have multiple losses, and frankly the conference could wind up without a single team in the Top 10 of the final rankings.
Even if Utah does finish 12-1, though, it is nowhere close to a lock for the Top Four. The Utes are likely going to move up to No. 6 in the new CFP rankings, but we're still talking about a team whose best win of the season was either a close call at 6-5 Washington or an 18-point win over 7-4 BYU. Picking up a now-devalued win over Oregon in the Pac-12 championship isn't likely to change much.
Margin of victory could be crucial.
If they destroy the Ducks by flexing those defensive muscles, the Utes could stay ahead of a one-loss Oklahoma with massive question marks on that side of the ball. It would probably also move the Utes ahead of Alabama—even though one could certainly argue that Alabama's remaining schedule (at Auburn) is more difficult than Utah's (vs. Colorado, neutral vs. Oregon).
But, to reiterate, this game probably only matters in the slightest if Utah wins convincingly. It's hard to put that mandate any higher than this.
Prediction: Utah 28-10
The Utes have held five of their last six opponents to seven points or fewer. Given how bad Oregon's offense looked for most of the night against Arizona State—as well as against Auburn, California and Stanford earlier this season—there's no good reason to believe the Ducks are going to light up the scoreboard against that D.
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7. The One for Paul Bunyan's Axe
4 of 10
Game Details: Week 14, No. 12 Wisconsin at No. 10 Minnesota, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Playoff Implications
Got to love a winner-take-all game for a spot in a conference championship, and you've got to love it even more when both teams still have a chance at reaching the College Football Playoff.
Despite suffering an embarrassing home loss to Illinois and getting spanked by Ohio State one week later, Wisconsin is the lone two-loss team that still has a playoff pulse. The Badgers smashed both Michigan and Michigan State in the first half of the season, they narrowly defeated Iowa, and a road win over Minnesota would put them in a position to exact some revenge against the Buckeyes.
They would still need help to get in. A Big Ten championship looks great, but the SEC champ, 13-0 Clemson, 12-1 Oklahoma and 12-1 Utah would all finish ahead of the Badgers. Even with the head-to-head win for the conference title, there's a good chance Ohio State would remain ahead of Wisconsin in the final rankings, too. Possibly Alabama, as well.
But they still have a chance if they win this game.
One-loss Minnesota would have an even better chance.
The Golden Gophers scored that program-defining win over Penn State a few weeks ago, and their lone loss (23-19 at Iowa) is more forgivable than, say, Oklahoma's loss to Kansas State or Utah's loss to USC on a night when the Trojans unexpectedly had to turn to backup QB Matt Fink. This resume is already strong, and it could get a whole lot stronger with season-ending victories over Wisconsin and Ohio State.
Prediction: Minnesota 34-31
Did you know that Minnesota has not yet allowed an opposing team to rush for more than 178 yards in a game and that only two of its 11 foes averaged so much as 3.8 yards per carry? Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor has stomped his fair share of mud holes through quality defenses, but it's feasible the Gophers slow him down just enough for their offense to win the Big Ten West.
6. Big 12 Championship
5 of 10
Game Details: Week 15, No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Baylor, Time and Network TBD
Playoff Implications
This should be a huge game. However—for reasons we'll discuss shortly—this week's Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State game is even more important in the grand scheme of the Big 12's playoff hopes, so it ranks a little bit higher.
If both teams get to this game with just one loss, though, the winner is going to have one heck of a strong argument for the No. 4 seed.
Even if things break poorly for the Big 12 in the other conferences and we end up with 13-0 Clemson and 12-1 Georgia, LSU, Minnesota and Ohio State, maybe Oklahoma or Baylor would be able to edge out LSU and Ohio State because it would have that all-important conference championship.
If not, you can take it to the bank that Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby is going to lose his mind while pointing out the hypocrisy of his conference's best team being left out of the BCS/CFP several times in the past in large part because the league didn't have a conference championship game from 2011 to '16.
If the three undefeated teams manage to get to 13-0, though, and we're just left to debate the Big 12 champion and 12-1 Utah for the final spot, getting an 11-1 vs. 11-1 showdown should push Oklahoma or Baylor in over the Utes—even though the Pac-12 team is currently ranked ahead of both Big 12 squads.
Prediction: Oklahoma 38-35
It's going to come down to the final possession. That has been the case for five of Oklahoma's last six games, as well as for six of Baylor's last nine games. But while they both have a lot of experience in close games this year, I'm rolling with Oklahoma because Lincoln Riley and Jalen Hurts have substantially more experience dealing with pressure over the past several seasons. Hurts has made some careless turnovers in the past few games, but he comes through in the clutch far more often than not.
5. "The Game"
6 of 10
Game Details: Week 14, No. 2 Ohio State at No. 13 Michigan, Noon ET on CBS
Playoff Implications
Even if the Wolverines come out and win "The Game" as dominantly as Ohio State did last year, there's no scenario in which two-loss Michigan plays for a Big Ten or national championship. Might be enough to keep us from immediately beginning to wonder if Jim Harbaugh will still be the head coach next year, though.
But this one is huge for Ohio State.
If the Buckeyes win, there's going to be a strong case that they deserve to go to the College Football Playoff no matter what happens during championship week. They already have wins over Cincinnati (42-0), Wisconsin (38-7) and Penn State (28-17). Adding a fourth regular-season victory over a CFP Top 20 team should ensure the Buckeyes have a better resume than any other team without a conference title.
That includes Alabama, it includes Clemson if it happens to lose the ACC championship, and I believe it would include LSU if the Tigers lost to Georgia in the SEC title game—though that probably depends on how well Ohio State beats Michigan, how badly it loses to Minnesota/Wisconsin and how incredible the SEC championship ends up being.
If Ohio State wins each of its remaining games, it arguably deserves the No. 1 seed in the playoff. After all, the Buckeyes entered Week 13 leading the nation in both points scored and points allowed—and got there against a respectable schedule.
One could argue this should be ranked much lower, because the Buckeyes could lose this, win the Big Ten championship and still make the playoff with room to spare. But no matter the result, this game is going to have major implications on how the national picture looks heading into conference championship week.
Prediction: Ohio State 35-13
This changes considerably if Justin Fields is affected by the ankle injury he suffered late in the fourth quarter against Penn State. He jogged off the field, but it looked ugly. Might be the type of thing that bothers him more as the week progresses. We'll see. But if he's a full go, the Buckeyes get the W. They had a minus-two turnover margin against the Nittany Lions and still won by double digits. And it's not like Harbaugh has had much success in this rivalry.
4. Bedlam
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Game Details: Week 14, No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 21 Oklahoma State, Time and Network TBD
Playoff Implications
Regardless of the Bedlam outcome, Oklahoma is facing Baylor in the Big 12 championship. But Oklahoma could hurt itself and Baylor the same way Oregon messed up the entire Pac-12's case for the College Football Playoff by losing to Arizona State in Week 13.
An Oklahoma loss to Oklahoma State would knock the Sooners out of the conversation, it would make Baylor's only loss of the season (vs. Oklahoma) look a little less forgivable, and it would also preemptively devalue a potential Baylor Big 12 championship. Just an all-around landmine type of result for the conference.
Baylor certainly should win the season finale at home against Kansas, meaning an Oklahoma win would set up a tasty 11-1 vs. 11-1 showdown. A Baylor win would mean revenge for its lone loss of the season and further validation of its legitimacy as a championship contender. An Oklahoma win would mean we get to keep arguing about whether this defense seriously deserves a spot in the Top Four.
Either way, the Big 12 champion is going to be a major topic of conversation if Oklahoma wins this game. A loss here changes that considerably.
Prediction: Oklahoma 42-38
They call it Bedlam for a reason, but Oklahoma is 15-1 all time in this series when both teams are ranked in the AP Top 25. The lone exception to that rule came in 2011 when the Cowboys were No. 3 in the nation. They aren't that good this year. But they are going to put up one heck of a fight. It wouldn't surprise anyone if this is a repeat from two years ago when Oklahoma State scored 52 points with a running back who rushed for more than 200 yards...and still lost by 10 at home.
3. ACC Championship
8 of 10
Game Details: Week 15, No. 3 Clemson vs. Virginia or Virginia Tech, Time and Network TBD
Playoff Implications
It's probably going to be a bloodbath no matter which team from Virginia represents the ACC Coastal Division, but it's still an extremely important game as far as the playoff picture is concerned.
If Clemson wins this game—as well as the Week 14 showdown with South Carolina—it's going to finish in the Top Four. Save your "But they ain't played nobody" arguments for another year. The Tigers faced two SEC teams (Texas A&M and South Carolina), and it's not their fault the rest of the ACC was awful this season.
Plus, aside from that one blip against North Carolina, Clemson destroyed everyone, already winning nine games by at least a 31-point margin. If that team gets to 13-0, it's getting a shot at the national championship. Considering the Tigers have won the last two ACC championships by a combined score of 80-13, there's a good chance that happens.
If Virginia or Virginia Tech shocks the world, though, there's almost no case for Clemson making the playoff. The SEC and Big Ten champs would definitely finish ahead of the Tigers. If it wins the Iron Bowl, Alabama would, too. 12-1 Utah and/or a 12-1 Big 12 champion would also bypass the Tigers. Even the SEC and Big Ten runners-up might belong in front of Clemson if it loses this game.
Prediction: Clemson 45-13
Virginia Tech has pitched back-to-back shutouts against Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, while Virginia is mostly winning with offense, but neither team has beaten anyone close to the caliber of Clemson. Heck, aside from each losing to Notre Dame, the Hokies and Cavaliers haven't even seen anything resembling a Top 15 team. Wild upsets happen all the time in this sport, but it's just so hard to imagine Clemson blowing this one.
2. Big Ten Championship
9 of 10
Game Details: Week 15, No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Minnesota or No. 12 Wisconsin, Time and Network TBD
Playoff Implications
The implications of this one depend on who comes out of the Big Ten West and whether Ohio State beats Michigan this week.
As we've previously discussed, Wisconsin has a case for making the playoff with two losses, but it's not a slam dunk. Wins over Minnesota and Ohio State would obviously move the needle in the Badgers' favor. Whether it's enough to climb all the way into the Top Four depends on a lot of results out of their control.
If it's one-loss Minnesota against undefeated Ohio State, the Big Ten is definitely sending at least one team to the playoff. Realistically, the only way Minnesota could be left out with a win would be if Clemson wins out, Georgia beats LSU, both of those SEC teams finish in the Top Four and the selection committee decides to keep Ohio State ahead of Minnesota in spite of the head-to-head result, which might happen. Even in that scenario, there's a Big Ten team vying for a title, hence the above wording.
It's also possible that both Minnesota and Ohio State get in if the Golden Gophers win this game. The likelihood of that outcome increased significantly with the combination of Oregon's loss to Arizona State and Oklahoma's latest ugly win. It really depends on the SEC championship more than the Big 12 or the Pac-12.
But, most likely, Ohio State wins this game and the Big Ten ends up with one team as either the No. 1 or No. 2 seed and no other teams legitimately in the conversation.
Prediction: Ohio State 38-17
I've picked Minnesota to win every game this season and have nothing but respect for P.J. Fleck and the Gophers, but Ohio State is simply operating at a different level. The Buckeyes are so stingy on defense and so relentless on offense that it would take some special teams chaos or a ridiculous turnover margin for them to lose this game. As long as Justin Fields is healthy and Chase Young remains eligible, the Buckeyes get it done.
1. SEC Championship
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Game Details: Week 15, No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Georgia, Time and Network TBD
Playoff Implications
Feel free to whine about "SEC Bias" if it helps you sleep at night, but do you realize how long it has been since the last time this conference championship didn't have massive national championship implications?
The winner of this game has gone to each College Football Playoff thus far, and there's no way that streak is about to end this year. Not only that, but in eight consecutive years from 2006 to '13, the winner of this game played for the BCS national championship.
Interestingly enough, the last time this game didn't factor into the race for the national championship was when these same teams squared off in 2005. BCS No. 4 LSU lost to No. 13 Georgia, but those Tigers had already suffered a loss that season while both USC and Texas went undefeated. Even if LSU had won that game, it wasn't going to jump into the Top Two.
If Georgia wins it again this year, though, there's a good chance both teams get in. LSU would probably drop to No. 4 behind undefeated Ohio State, undefeated Clemson and 12-1 Georgia, but the Tigers—even without a conference championship—have a better resume than either Oklahoma or Utah. This may well be where we find out just how much a conference title does or does not matter.
In fact—hope you're sitting down for this news—there's still a real scenario in which the SEC gets three teams into the playoff. If Ohio State wins out, Clemson loses a game and neither the Big 12 nor Pac-12 produces a one-loss champion, isn't the logical conclusion that Ohio State, 12-1 LSU, 12-1 Georgia and 11-1 Alabama battle for all the marbles?
In conclusion: The winner of this game is definitely in. The loser might be, too, but that depends on which team loses, as well as which other teams lose that weekend.
Prediction: LSU 27-24
LSU has the second-highest-scoring offense in the nation and Georgia boasts one of the stingiest defenses. Given the degree of competition each team has faced along the way, one could reasonably argue this is the best offense against the best defense. LSU will win that battle often enough to score a few touchdowns, but the real key to this game is how Georgia's inconsistent offense does against LSU's porous defense. Let's just hope Kirby Smart doesn't call any ridiculous fake punts again this year.
Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.
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