Week 12 NFL Picks: Over/Under Projections, Odds Advice and Line Spreads

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistNovember 19, 2019

TAMPA, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 17: Michael Thomas #13 of the New Orleans Saints runs the ball during the third quarter of a football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on November 17, 2019 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas have put up enormous statistics, but that has not always translated to their teams being involved in high-scoring affairs. 

In Week 12, the two NFC South stars face each other for the first time in 2019 as the Carolina Panthers visit the New Orleans Saints. While the first instinct may be to bet the over, the recent trends from Carolina's offense and New Orleans' defense suggest otherwise. 

Lamar Jackson's offensive success could also trigger an immediate push to bet the over in the Ravens' road game, but there is no guarantee of that happening against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday. 

          

Week 12 Schedule

All Times ET.

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Odds via Caesars; predictions against the spread in bold.

Thursday, November 21

Indianapolis at Houston (-3.5) (Over/Under: 45.5) (8:20 p.m., Fox/NFL Network) 

        

Sunday, November 24

Denver at Buffalo (-4) (O/U: 37) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Pittsburgh (-6.5) at Cincinnati (O/U: 39) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Carolina at New Orleans (-9.5) (O/U: 47) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Oakland (-3) at New York Jets (O/U: 46) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-4.5) (O/U: 52) (1 p.m., Fox) 

New York Giants at Chicago (-6) (O/U: 40.5) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Miami at Cleveland (-10.5) (O/U: 44.5) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Seattle at Philadelphia (-1.5) (O/U: 49) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Detroit (-3.5) at Washington (O/U: 42) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-3) (O/U: 41.5) (4:05 p.m., CBS) 

Dallas at New England (-6.5) (O/U: 46) (4:25 p.m., Fox) 

Green Bay at San Francisco (-3) (O/U: 46) (8:20 p.m., NBC)

          

Monday, November 25

Baltimore (-3) at Los Angeles Rams (O/U: 46) (8:15 p.m., ESPN) 

            

Odds Advice

Carolina at New Orleans (Under 47) 

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - NOVEMBER 17: Kyle Allen #7 of the Carolina Panthers walks off the field after an interception during the second quarter during their game against the Atlanta Falcons at Bank of America Stadium on November 17, 2019 in Charlotte,
Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images

Despite McCaffrey putting up over 100 total yards in the last four games, the Panthers have struggled to find the end zone. 

Since its Week 7 bye, Carolina produced 62 points, 30 of which came from the Week 9 win over Tennessee during the only victory in that stretch. 

Ron Rivera's team scored a season-low three points Sunday in the loss to Atlanta, as Kyle Allen was intercepted four times

Allen's regression over the last four games brings up concerns that the Panthers can compete with the Saints in Week 12. The backup quarterback has averaged 255.5 passing yards, thrown three touchdowns and been picked off nine times in the last four weeks. 

In five home games, New Orleans averaged 22.6 points and allowed 19.4 points per contest. Those numbers plus Carolina's offensive incompetency suggest the under will hit with ease Sunday. 

If the visitors continue to slide, Drew Brees could pick apart the Panthers secondary with ease. Thomas has four straight 100-yard receiving performances, and his two highest totals have come against NFC South opposition at the Superdome. 

Even if Sean Payton's team hits the 30-point mark, like it has in two of three divisional clashes, there is no guarantee the over will hit.

Carolina is going up against a defense that has allowed a single 100-yard rushing performance in seven games and three quarterbacks to throw for more than 250 yards. 

                 

Baltimore at Los Angeles Rams (Under 46) 

PITTSBURGH, PA - NOVEMBER 10: Aaron Donald #99 of the Los Angeles Rams celebrates with Cory Littleton #58 after sacking Mason Rudolph #2 of the Pittsburgh Steelers for a safety in the fourth quarter at Heinz Field on November 10, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Penns
Justin Berl/Getty Images

After watching the Ravens rack up 127 points in the last three games, our first instinct would be to bet the over for their Week 12 trip to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. 

But the Rams' recent defensive production suggests Jackson, Mark Ingram and Co. could be slowed down for stretches Monday. 

Sean McVay's team has conceded 44 points in the last four weeks, and if you take out Tampa Bay's 55-point outburst in Week 4, it has allowed 11.5 points per contest at home. 

Aaron Donald and Dante Fowler have combined for 26 tackles for loss, 25 quarterback hits and 14.5 sacks as part of a defense that has allowed 89.1 rushing yards per game. 

Baltimore's lowest rushing total this season is 136 yards, and it has five games with over 200 yards on the ground. Because their ground game has been successful, the Ravens have not produced 250 passing yards since Week 2. 

Forcing Jackson to beat them through the air could benefit the Rams, as they have only allowed 13 passing touchdowns and give up the fifth-fewest yards per passing attempt at 5.8.

Even if the Ravens break loose on offense, the under could still hit due to the Rams' recent production. 

The Jared Goff-led offense has 29 points in two games since the Week 9 bye, and it only managed 157 yards in its last home clash with a playoff contender in Week 6 versus San Francisco. 

John Harbaugh's team is one of four to allow under 10 passing scores this year, and that may force the Rams to beat it with the run. That likely will not happen since Los Angeles has a pair of 100-yard rushing performances since Week 3.

                     

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference

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