Predicting the 2019-20 MLB Offseason's Biggest Blockbuster Trades
The 2019-20 Major League Baseball offseason isn't all about where Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg will sign. There will be big happenings on the trade market too.
We can't prove it, but we can at least speculate on which teams will make said happenings, well, happen.
We have predictions for the seven biggest trades—we dare not push our luck with more—of the hot-stove season. In some cases, real-world rumors informed our thinking. In others, we simply used our imaginations.
We'll progress roughly in order from what would be the smallest blockbuster to what would be the biggest.
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Ken Giles to the Washington Nationals
1 of 7
The Toronto Blue Jays are nearly finished with their rebuild, yet right-handed closer Ken Giles is one remaining trade chip for them to potentially cash in this winter.
Giles, who's fresh off posting a 1.87 ERA and 14.1 strikeouts per nine innings, is due for free agency after the 2020 season. While there are bound to be lingering concerns about the elbow trouble he endured in 2019, he should have a little extra appeal relative to a free-agent market that's short on ace closers.
According to Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com, the Washington Nationals talked to the Blue Jays about Giles before the July 31 trade deadline. Though the Nats traded for Daniel Hudson, his free agency gives Washington an excuse to circle back around on Giles.
The 29-year-old would fit well at the back end of a bullpen that, though reasonably functional during Washington's World Series run, finished the regular season with only 0.1 wins above replacement, according to Baseball Reference.
Giles' acquisition cost will likely be somewhat suppressed because of his $8.4 million salary projection. That should suit the Nationals, who have more money to spend than they do prospects to deal.
Jon Gray to the Houston Astros
2 of 7
The Colorado Rockies should trade someone this winter. In light of their maxed-out payroll and diminished farm system, they lack other ways forward from their 91-loss 2019.
In the wake of his 3.84 ERA—a well-above-average mark for a Colorado pitcher—Jon Gray is a rare Rockie with legitimate trade value. Between that and his tendency to follow his highs with lows, the Rockies should get something for his two remaining years of club control while the getting's good.
The 28-year-old righty is in a similar position to the one Gerrit Cole was in with the Pittsburgh Pirates following the 2017 season. Like they did back then, the Houston Astros could use this as cue to swoop in.
With both Cole and Wade Miley off their books, the Astros are in the market for at least one starting pitcher. But since they're already projected to exceed the $208 million luxury-tax threshold in 2020 by a wide margin, trades make more sense for them than free-agent signings.
The Astros would only be taking on a $5.6 million projected salary if they used spare major leaguers (e.g., Josh James) or prospects to trade for Gray. All they'd have to do then is unlock the full potential of his 96.1 mph fastball and nasty slider.
Kyle Schwarber to the Los Angeles Angels
3 of 7
The rumor mill is abuzz with chatter about whether the Chicago Cubs might trade Kris Bryant or Willson Contreras.
However, the Cubs can be forgiven if they prefer not to trade the 2016 National League MVP or a two-time All-Star catcher. They might just as soon move a player whose talent and salary are both expendable.
Basically, Kyle Schwarber. Though the 26-year-old outfielder has clubbed 94 home runs over the last three seasons, he's also posted a modest .829 OPS and 3.7 WAR. That's arguably not enough to justify paying him $8 million in 2020, especially given that the Cubs are projected to be about $10 million over the luxury tax.
If the Cubs do dangle Schwarber on the trade market, the Los Angeles Angels may see him as the perfect guy to slide into Kole Calhoun's vacated spot in their outfield.
Schwarber, whose club control runs through 2021, would be reunited with former Cubs manager Joe Maddon in Anaheim. His left-handed power would balance a lineup that leans to the right, and said power would play very well at Angel Stadium of Anaheim.
Granted, the Angels don't have much in the way of prospects to offer. But if Chicago's priority is merely dumping Schwarber's salary, that's where the Angels can absolutely help.
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Whit Merrifield to the Chicago Cubs
4 of 7
Ah, but how might the Cubs spend any savings gained from a potential Schwarber trade?
Among other things, they need a starting pitcher, relief pitchers and some combination of a new second baseman, outfielder, utility guy and leadoff hitter. Alas, no player checks all those boxes.
Whit Merrifield, however, checks most of them.
The 30-year-old got a late start on his major league career, but he's quietly cemented himself as a well-rounded star since breaking in with the Kansas City Royals in 2016. Over the last two seasons, he's hit .303 with an .809 OPS, 28 homers, 65 stolen bases and 9.6 WAR.
The Royals have been reluctant to trade Merrifield in the past, and he's less than a year removed from signing a club-friendly contract extension. Yet his age simply doesn't fit with the team's rebuild timeline, and KC may be more open to moving him following the Glass family's sale of the team.
The Cubs, meanwhile, have been linked to Merrifield here and there in the past, and Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reported he'll be a priority target this winter. He's surely worth what little the Cubs have left in their farm system.
Mitch Haniger to the St. Louis Cardinals
5 of 7
The Seattle Mariners don't anticipate a wild winter, but they're bound to listen on All-Star outfielder Mitch Haniger.
Interested parties are already lining up, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Though Haniger's 2019 season was cut short by a ruptured testicle, he established himself as one of baseball's best outfielders across 2017 and 2018. He shined particularly bright in the latter with an .859 OPS and 26 homers.
Because Haniger can play any outfield position, there are few places where the 28-year-old wouldn't fit. But since they already have an elite farm system, the Mariners might prefer to deal with a team that can offer MLB-ready talent.
Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals have an obvious need for impact hitters following their offensive flop in the National League Championship Series. Because owner Bill Dewitt Jr. wants to limit payroll increases, Haniger's $3 million salary projection would also suit the Cardinals. And they'd control him through 2022.
With plenty of spare outfielders (e.g., Randy Arozarena) and pitchers (e.g., Genesis Cabrera) at their disposal, the Cardinals could have the parts the Mariners want in a Haniger trade.
Starling Marte to the San Diego Padres
6 of 7
Out of all the possible trade candidates scattered across Major League Baseball, Starling Marte is perhaps the most likely to move.
Though it took them a while to realize such a thing was needed, the Pittsburgh Pirates have gone into rebuilding mode with successive firings of their manager, two coaches, president and general manager. Eventually, they'll turn their attention to a roster that had absolutely no fun in losing 93 games.
Marte, 31, is a clear trade chip. He was suspended 80 games in 2017 for violating MLB's Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program, but he's bounced back with an .816 OPS, 43 homers, 58 steals and 6.6 WAR over the last two seasons. He'll make just $11.5 million this year with a $12.5 million club option for 2021.
With no star center fielders on the open market, Marte will have a special appeal for teams with a need at the position. That could notably include the New York Mets, but the San Diego Padres may be the club to beat.
Though much has been made of their starting pitching shortcomings, the Padres must also see to an outfield that really doesn't have any solid starters. For their part, the Pirates might like the idea of trading for a Hunter Renfroe or a Franchy Cordero, or one or more players from San Diego's No. 1 farm system.
Mookie Betts to the Atlanta Braves
7 of 7
In addition to Bryant, the other super-duper-stars at the heart of the winter trade market are Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor and Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts. Per Morosi, at least one of the trio is expected to move this winter.
It shouldn't be Betts, who's been baseball's second-best player since 2015. But once J.D. Martinez opted in and put the Red Sox in a bind with their payroll, the signs nonetheless say that it will be Betts.
The 2018 American League MVP is only under control through 2020, during which he's projected to earn $27.7 million via arbitration. Any team that trades for him must therefore be a World Series contender with abundant cash and prospects.
For instance, the Atlanta Braves. They secured a second straight NL East title with a 97-win 2019, and now they're operating with plenty of payroll space and MLB's third-best farm system. And unless they want to commit to Ender Inciarte in center field, they have an opening in their outfield.
If there's a problem with this scenario, it's that an all-in trade for Betts would be the kind of risk-heavy move the Braves have shied away from in recent years. But since they can spare the prospects and would only have to pay Betts for a year, they might come around anyway.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Salary arbitration projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.
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