Canelo Alvarez vs. Sergey Kovalev: Roundup of Expert Picks for the Superfight

Saul "Canelo" Alvarez will try to win a world title in a fourth division on Saturday when he takes on Sergey "Krusher" Kovalev for the WBO light heavyweight belt.

Alvarez (52-1-2, 35 KOs), the biggest star in boxing, is jumping up two weight classes after a highly successful run in the middleweight ranks. Alvarez will be at a disadvantage in height, reach and weight when he and Kovalev (34-3-1, 29 KOs) step between the ropes at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, but his skill, speed and defensive ability have most experts backing him to win the bout.

Ring Magazine rounded up 20 expert predictions for the bout. Eighteen are in favor of Alvarez, while just two are picking Kovalev. The dissenters are manager Vadim Kornilov and Now Boxing Promotions' Cameron Dunkin.

Kornilov has Kovalev winning by TKO, Dunkin on points. Dunkin believes Kovalev's jab will see him through, noting "GGG landed so many jabs on Canelo and [Kovalev is] so much bigger than Canelo."

A steady onslaught of heavy jabs from a natural 175-pounder could prevent Alvarez from getting to the body, which he has said will be part of his strategy for defeating Kovalev, per ESPN.com's Dan Rafael. 

Boxer-turned-analyst Andre Ward has beaten Kovalev twice and is backing Alvarez to do the same, although he doesn't think it will be easy. In a video for FightHype.com, Ward said Canelo will have to "be in the lion's den" to succeed, but he ultimately said, "If I had to choose, I'm going to go with Canelo late." 

ESPN.com's Andres Ferrari solicited several opinions on the bout. Like the Ring roundup, the group heavily favored the 29-year-old Mexican superstar, with 11 experts picking him and just two going for the 36-year-old underdog.

ESPN UK's Nick Parkinson believes Alvarez will target the midsection, and fans should "look for Canelo's crunching body shots to hurt Kovalev and possibly leave the judges' redundant." 

ESPN's Teddy Atlas believes Kovalev's difficult TKO win over Anthony Yarde in August might hurt him, saying the lack of recovery time "can be a recipe for disaster." Atlas thinks Alvarez will score a knockout. 

Welterweight boxer Danny Garcia is backing Alvarez to win, but he thinks the Mexican will pay a price for it. 

"That's a dangerous fight [for Canelo] because of the size," said Garcia, per Sean Jones of BoxingNews24.com. "Kovalev can punch. I can see Canelo winning a close decision, but I think he's going to get hurt in that fight. I think he'll get stunned by the third or fourth round and come back."

The odds also favor Alvarez. According to Caesars (as of Friday, Nov. 1), Alvarez is a -450 favorite (bet $100 to win $22.22), while Kovalev is at +360 (bet $100 to win $360).

Kovalev's paths to a big upset appear limited. He's unlikely to outbox Alvarez, who is quicker and a phenomenal counterpuncher. If the big Russian is going to pull this off, it will most likely be that Alvarez has overextended himself by moving up to 175 pounds and Krusher has enough power to clobber his undersized opponent. 

If Kovalev defies the odds and the pundits on Saturday, it would be the signature victory of his career. Alvarez is an incredible, all-around talent in his prime, while Kovalev is an aging bruiser with a suspect body.

The power and size are in his favor, but he has to hope it's enough. Alvarez has shown his chin might be impossible to crack. On top of that, he's a calculating, brilliant boxer who is going to be fully prepared once he gets in the ring. When it comes to outfoxing his opponents, Alvarez has proved himself to be an expert.