NFL Playoff Predictions at the Midseason Mark
Every year, prognosticators take their best shots at how the forthcoming season will unfold with playoff predictions—only to see those projections torn to shreds because of unknown variables such as injuries, trades and unexpected losing or winning streaks.
Most people deserve a second chance, so we'll go ahead and roll out a midseason playoff forecast, taking into account injuries, changes to rosters and unforeseen trends that came to light within eight weeks of action.
You can take a minute to look back at the way-too-early postseason predictions to see how the picture has changed over the past six weeks.
Will a team with a losing record sneak into the wild-card round? Assuming the undefeated San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots clinch playoff berths, how far do they advance? Who's going to meet in Miami for Super Bowl LIV?
AFC Wild Card Round
1 of 7
No. 6 Cleveland Browns (9-7) at No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
We kick off the AFC Wild Card Round with a surprise. The Cleveland Browns will win seven of their last nine contests to claim the sixth seed. Although this sounds like a long shot, take a look at their schedule.
Starting Week 9, Cleveland will play a bunch of teams with losing records or backup quarterbacks.
Denver Broncos quarterback Brandon Allen is first on the list. The Browns will see Pittsburgh Steelers signal-caller Mason Rudolph twice. The Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals, who benched Andy Dalton, remain winless. In Arizona, rookie first-rounder Kyler Murray hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since Week 6.
While it's trendy to poke fun at an agitated Baker Mayfield at a presser, the Browns will rebound in a second-half surge into the playoff picture.
Cleveland will draw a tough matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs, who will likely take the field without quarterback Patrick Mahomes (dislocated knee) for at least another week, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. We still don't know how the signal-caller will respond coming off an injury, which explains the AFC West club's slight fall in seeding from the previous forecast.
Assuming Mahomes plays at full strength in January, the Chiefs should steamroll a Browns squad that can beat terribly flawed teams with backup quarterbacks but struggles against stiffer competition.
The Chiefs don't have a shutdown defense, but defensive end Frank Clark and interior tackle Chris Jones should be healthy and active. They'll put immense pressure on Mayfield and force him to throw ill-advised passes, which plagued him in the first seven regular-season games as he leads the league in interceptions (12) along with Jameis Winston.
Prediction: Chiefs 34, Browns 24
No. 5 Indianapolis Colts (10-6) at No. 4 Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Frank Reich will deserve Coach of the Year votes for leading this squad to 10-6 and a playoff berth following Andrew Luck's shocking retirement announcement in August. At 5-2, the Indianapolis Colts should be able to stay in the postseason race and earn a wild-card spot with a lunch pail-type squad full of grinders.
This matchup holds some historic value with the Baltimore Colts tied to both franchises. The two teams will also enter this contest with identical records.
Although the Baltimore Ravens went into their Week 8 bye on a three-game win streak, quarterback Lamar Jackson hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since Week 5—in a game he also tossed three interceptions. Keep your eyes on his development through the next nine contests.
Similar to the Los Angeles Chargers last year, the Colts should be able to handle a run-first Ravens squad with limitations in the passing game. If defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus sells out to stop Jackson along with running backs Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards on the ground, the AFC South club should advance to the next round.
Baltimore has a weak pass rush, which ranks 28th in sacks (12) this season. Pernell McPhee, who ranked second on the team in that category (three), landed on injured reserve with torn triceps.
Indianapolis fields one of the best pass-protecting offensive lines in the league, ranking eighth, per Football Outsiders. Expect quarterback Jacoby Brissett to have enough time to attack the Ravens' 26th-ranked pass defense without much pressure bearing down on him in the pocket.
Prediction: Colts 21, Ravens 20
NFC Wild Card Round
2 of 7
No. 6 Minnesota Vikings (11-5) at No. 3 Green Bay Packers (13-3)
The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings square for a third time with raised stakes.
The Packers earned a Week 2 victory over their division rivals, and they'll travel to Minnesota for a Monday Night Football matchup in Week 16.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has put together a string of impressive performances without wideout Davante Adams through October, throwing for 10 touchdowns and just one interception while completing 68.61 percent of his attempts, per Zach Kruse of Packers Wire.
After wideout Adam Thielen's criticism of the passing game and rumors swirling about Stefon Diggs' unhappiness in Minnesota, quarterback Kirk Cousins also had an impressive October, tossing 10 touchdown passes with only one pick, completing 78.45 percent of his passes.
Green Bay's defense has made headlines with pass-rushers Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith breaking through offensive lines for a combined 15 sacks, but we should also note the development of the short passing attack, which will take the spotlight off Adams on the perimeter.
Running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams have taken on bigger responsibilities compared to previous years, handling more touches in the passing game. Furthermore, the Packers have logged at least 118 yards on the ground in three of their last four games.
Although Cousins has played well over the last four weeks, he'll go against arguably the best pass-rushing duo in the league. Green Bay's aerial attack should be able to move the ball against a pass defense tied for 22nd in touchdowns (14) allowed. If cornerback Xavier Rhodes holds on to his job despite recent struggles, he'll wear a bull's-eye in the secondary.
Prediction: Packers 28, Vikings 24
No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (11-5) at No. 4 Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
The Los Angeles Rams' success could hinge upon running back Todd Gurley's availability and workload. When he sat out Week 6, the offense only mustered up 157 total yards in a 20-7 loss to the 49ers.
In comparison to recent years, head coach Sean McVay has scaled back Gurley's touches, which hurts this team against top-level competition.
At 5-3, the Rams have four opponents with sub-.500 records remaining on the schedule. If the two-time All-Pro tailback is preserved for crucial matchups against the Ravens, Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys and 49ers late in the season, Los Angeles can win at least two of those matchups.
At 4-4, the Philadelphia Eagles' schedule softens up a bit as well with five opponents below the .500 mark in the win-loss column. Their tougher matchups against the Patriots, Cowboys and Seahawks are at home.
Until we witness a complete collapse from either team, the Rams and Eagles will return to the postseason and possibly meet in a wild-card contest.
Whether Gurley suits up at close to 100 percent or not, Los Angeles should be able to exploit Philadelphia's 21st-ranked pass defense. The Rams' aerial attack features Cooper Kupp, the league's No. 2 pass-catcher in receiving yards (792), and ranks fourth overall. Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks (concussion), if healthy, complete arguably the top wide receiver trio.
General manager Les Snead acquired cornerback Jalen Ramsey weeks before the trade deadline. He can take away half the field, forcing quarterback Carson Wentz to cycle through his reads, giving more time for the pass rush to take him down.
Perhaps the Eagles have issues in the locker room or their problems boil down to poor preparation for games, but this club's overall performance has slipped since winning its first Super Bowl two years ago. Wentz tastes playoff action for the first time and loses to a better team with Gurley ready to handle 20-plus touches in a win-or-go-home circumstance.
Prediction: Rams 27, Eagles 23
AFC Divisional Round
3 of 7
No. 5 Indianapolis Colts (10-6) at No. 1 New England Patriots (14-2)
The Colts' Cinderella story ends at Gillette Stadium. Brissett's predecessors struggled to beat the Patriots' duo, head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady. Indianapolis' young signal-caller will have an introduction to this playoff rivalry.
Brissett won Super Bowl LI with the Patriots. In that year, New England fielded the No. 1 scoring defense. He'll see a unit that gives up the fewest number of points from the opposing sideline.
New England ranks fourth against ground attacks and second in aerial defense. Typically, we hear about the Patriots' intention to neutralize the opponent's top offensive threat. Expect the defense to target wideout T.Y. Hilton.
If Hilton produces an average performance, Brissett doesn't have a consistent second option to rely on in the passing game. That hurts the Colts' ability to attack the Patriots' vaunted defense.
With bracket cornerback-safety coverage over Hilton, New England's front seven can focus on stuffing running back Marlon Mack at the line of scrimmage. The Patriots defense leads the league in takeaways (25) so expect a forced fumble or at least one interception to turn the tide in their favor early in this contest.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Colts 17
No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at No. 2 Houston Texans (11-5)
This is a Week 6 rematch between two evenly matched teams and a pair of phenomenal upstart quarterbacks, Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. The Houston Texans won the regular-season matchup 31-24, dominating the time of possession (39:48–20:12).
This time around, the Chiefs should be prepared to stop running back Carlos Hyde and the Texans' ground attack. Kansas City can look back at the film and force Houston to make adjustments. It would also help if Jones is available to play, which wasn't the case for the first contest.
With the Chiefs' focus on the ground attack, to avoid losing in the same fashion twice, Kansas City will force a shootout-type competition. Mahomes and Watson will trade scoring drives throughout this game in a thrilling high-scoring showcase. We'll also see star wideouts Tyreek Hill and DeAndre Hopkins on the receiving end of some spectacular throws.
In the end, the Chiefs will test the Texans' run defense since defensive end J.J. Watt is on injured reserve with a torn pectoral. At home, Kansas City burns the clock with its trio of running backs LeSean McCoy, Damien Williams and Darrel Williams for a game-winning field goal on the final drive.
Prediction: Chiefs 38, Texans 35
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NFC Divisional Round
4 of 7
No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (11-5) at No. 1 New Orleans Saints (14-2)
With all eyes fixated on the referees because of a no-call on what seemed like pass interference between these teams last year, the New Orleans Saints welcome the Rams back to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. This time, the clubs meet in the NFC Divisional Round instead of the conference championship.
Even if Gurley comes into this contest healthy enough to handle a full load, he'll struggle against the Saints' defensive front. That unit hasn't allowed two running backs to combine for 100 rushing yards since its matchup with Los Angeles in Week 2.
Gurley probably won't look as fresh after a full season and a grueling matchup with the Eagles in the wild-card round.
Quarterback Jared Goff must move the ball consistently to give his team a fair chance to win this contest, but he'll face heavy resistance. The Saints have only surrendered 10 touchdown receptions through eight games and rank 12th in yards allowed. Over the last four weeks, the group held three signal-callers to fewer than 200 passing yards.
Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen's defense is tied for sixth in sacks (24), which also doesn't bode well for Goff.
We'll likely see an intriguing matchup between Ramsey and wideout Michael Thomas. Nevertheless, expect Drew Brees to lean on tight end Jared Cook and running back Alvin Kamara as playmakers to challenge rookie safety Taylor Rapp, 34-year-old Eric Weddle, who may have lost a step in his 13th season, and inexperienced starting linebacker Bryce Hager.
Brees picks his spots, and the defense closes the deal with critical stops late in the game.
Prediction: Saints 26, Rams 20
No. 3 Green Bay Packers (13-3) at No. 2 San Francisco 49ers (14-2)
The 49ers' eight-game win streak comes with one major question mark. Can Jimmy Garoppolo put together a strong performance when the rushing attack isn't ripping off chunk yardage?
Before Thursday's four-touchdown performance against the Arizona Cardinals' 29th-ranked pass defense, Garoppolo threw for nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. He's tossed a pick in six out of eight contests.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan has utilized the ground game as the offensive engine. San Francisco leads the league in total carries and ranks second in rushing yards.
The Packers won't have many opportunities to expose the holes in Garoppolo's game because they allow chunk yardage on the ground (4.8 yards per carry), which plays to the 49ers' strengths.
Shanahan can use running backs Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert to bludgeon the Packers' 24th-ranked run defense, neutralizing the Smith duo as pass-rushers off the edge.
Rodgers will have a tough time cutting through the league's No. 1 pass defense, which has allowed just five touchdowns in eight contests.
Jones and Williams will run into the 11th-ranked run defense, adding another layer of difficulty to the Packers' attempt to score points.
Think back to the Packers' only loss in Week 4. Philadelphia ran the ball straight through Green Bay's defensive front for 176 yards. Shanahan can open a clinic in designing effective plays for the ground attack. The 49ers could rush for 200 yards in a physical battle that ends in victory.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Packers 21
AFC Championship Game
5 of 7
No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at No. 1 New England Patriots (14-2)
In an AFC Championship rematch, the Chiefs face the Patriots. Unlike last year, Kansas City goes on the road to Gillette Stadium.
Mahomes will challenge New England's defense with deep throws to his wideouts, Hill, Demarcus Robinson and rookie second-rounder Mecole Hardman. Tight end Travis Kelce can force the linebackers to sit back on the heels in coverage, which allows some room for the ground attack.
Belichick won't be able to focus on one offensive threat with Mahomes targeting a handful of pass-catchers. Expect the Patriots to give up big plays to Kansas City's top-level playmakers because of head coach Andy Reid's tendency to push the ball downfield.
Brady doesn't need to match Mahomes, but he can't rely on his defense to keep the Chiefs under 20 points. The Patriots haven't run the ball well through eight weeks, ranking 23rd in rushing yards, but they should see improvements as the offensive line jells going into the second half of the season.
At some point, Isaiah Wynn may be able to return from turf toe. If ball-carrier Sony Michel doesn't turn the corner, Brady can target running back James White to spark the short passing game. His quick, high-percentage throws will force the Chiefs' linebacker corps to cover the middle of the field or flank out to the flat areas.
That passing strategy could eventually clear some space for Michel between the tackles against Kansas City's 30th-ranked run defense.
With a clear-cut weakness in the Chiefs' front seven, Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels focuses on that soft spot and finds a breakthrough with Michel and Rex Burkhead.
Unlike the Texans, the Patriots have a defense that won't allow Mahomes and company to put up 30-plus points on the scoreboard.
Prediction: Patriots 30, Chiefs 26
NFC Championship Game
6 of 7
No. 2 San Francisco 49ers (14-2) at No. 1 New Orleans Saints (14-2)
Prepare for a defensive slugfest between the Saints and 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. San Francisco gives up the fewest yards and ranks second in points allowed. The New Orleans defense continues to improve as the season progresses, listing sixth and ninth, respectively, in the aforementioned categories.
The 49ers running backs will have to work hard for every yard on the ground against the No. 2 run defense. Furthermore, interior tackle Sheldon Rankins should perform at closer to full strength after missing the first three games while recovering from a torn Achilles. He's suited up for five contests but still needs time to work into pre-injury form.
The Saints and 49ers have solid offensive lines that protect their quarterbacks. Both rank top 10 in pass protection, per Football Outsiders. Nonetheless, it's easier to trust Brees than Garoppolo in big moments. The latter tossed seven interceptions in eight games this season; the former has thrown just eight regular-season picks since 2017.
In a matchup with points and yards coming at a premium, count on Brees to make enough plays to put his team in position for a late fourth-quarter score.
If the 49ers struggle to move the ball against the Saints' No. 2 run defense, Garoppolo would be in a tough spot. New Orleans has allowed just 10 passing scores through eight games. Wideout Emmanuel Sanders would likely draw a tough matchup with cornerback Marshon Lattimore.
Met with strong resistance on the ground and through the air, the 49ers offense sputters through 60 minutes with a couple of turnovers that give the Saints a short field on scoring drives.
Prediction: Saints 20, 49ers 16
Super Bowl LIV
7 of 7
No. 1 New England Patriots (14-2) vs. No. 1 New Orleans Saints (14-2)
Saints fans could experience deja vu.
A decade ago, New Orleans advanced to Super Bowl XLIV to face off against quarterback Peyton Manning and the Colts at Hard Rock Stadium. Brees and head coach Sean Payton walked away victorious, hoisting the franchise's first Lombardi Trophy.
The Saints will attempt to take down another iconic quarterback in Brady and a mastermind head coach, who's reportedly calling defensive plays this year, per Ben Violin of the Boston Globe.
On the flip side, the Patriots must also prepare for a defensive group that's on the rise but also features proven playmakers like Lattimore, who's performing at his best in recent weeks. The Pro Bowl cover man is tied for seventh in pass breakups (nine). Defensive end Cameron Jordan is one of three with eight sacks, which lists fourth leaguewide.
Jordan, Rankins and Marcus Davenport will test the Patriots' five-man group, specifically fill-in starting left tackle Marshall Newhouse or Isaiah Wynn, who could take over the spot with only two regular-season appearances.
The Patriots would face a top-notch defense capable of covering their offensive weapons. The Saints' No. 2 run defense is equipped to bottle up Michel and Burkhead on the ground. Linebacker Demario Davis can chase down pass-catchers out of the backfield. Defensive backs Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Marcus Williams and Vonn Bell can shadow wide receivers Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu in shallow or deep areas.
Last year, New England didn't have to defend Gurley, who spent most of his time on the sideline with a knee injury. Kamara will give this unit everything it can handle and more because of his dual-threat capabilities. If the Patriots neutralize Thomas on the perimeter, the two-time Pro Bowl running back could have a strong outing.
The Patriots have allowed 135 or more rushing yards in three contests this season—two of the games weren't close, but the Saints should test New England's defensive front with Kamara and Latavius Murray. If the floodgates open, the former could win Super Bowl MVP because of his involvement in the passing game.
For the Saints, their NFL journey comes full circle as they win another Super Bowl in Miami.
Prediction: Saints 23, Patriots 20
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