1 Big Warning to Each MLB Team Before 2019-20 Free Agency, Trade Season
It's getting near time for Major League Baseball to fire up the hot stove, which makes now a perfect moment to offer some words of warning.
We've taken a look at how each of MLB's 30 teams is preparing to enter the 2019-20 offseason and determined which blunt message they need to hear. The specifics vary, but these messages generally cover how teams should or shouldn't show restraint in free agency or on the trade market.
We'll go division by division, starting in the American League East and ending in the National League West.
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American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: Be Realistic with Trey Mancini
Where do the Baltimore Orioles go next after losing 223 games across 2018 and 2019? Certainly not back into contention right away in 2020.
The Orioles' offseason focus will be squarely on their long-term future. Among other things, they might seek to further boost their farm system through trades of veterans. With a 35-homer season behind him and three more years of club control still ahead of him, Trey Mancini is a prime candidate to move.
Mancini, 27, is limited defensively, and his power is nothing special in baseball's current homer-happy era. The Orioles will need to be practical with their asking price, lest they scare suitors away and waste what's likely Mancini's peak trade value.
Boston Red Sox: Don't Underestimate What You Have
The Boston Red Sox's disappointing 84-78 season ultimately cost president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski his job. It now seems like more heads will roll as the team seeks to scale back its payroll.
However, that effort should only go so far. This is still largely the same team that won 108 games and the World Series in 2018. And according to Baseball Reference, the Red Sox ranked eighth in wins above replacement this past season despite their pedestrian record.
None of this is likely to stop the Red Sox from subtracting, but it should convince them to also do some adding. Specifically, the team could use pitching depth and perhaps a new first baseman.
New York Yankees: Don't Ignore What Didn't Work
The New York Yankees have won 203 regular-season games over the last two seasons, only to fall short of the World Series both times. Those experiences should fill them with determination to get better.
Yet it's possible to see a scenario in which the Yankees play it quiet this winter. After all, they already have a lot of money on their books, and they could potentially fill the holes they have from within.
But if nothing else, the Yankees would be remiss not to upgrade their starting rotation. It struggled with a 4.51 ERA in the regular season, and its lack of depth was sorely evident in the club's loss to the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series.
Tampa Bay Rays: Now Is No Time to Be Cheap
The Tampa Bay Rays won 96 games and nearly knocked off the Astros in the American League Division Series. Sans context, that's absolutely a season to build on.
But with the Rays, there's always a question about how much money they have to spend. It typically isn't much. And because their 2020 payroll is already projected to surpass their 2019 payroll, that could be the case once again this winter.
Then again, the Rays might soon have a new TV contract to draw funds from. If not, they might free up money by non-tendering guys like Mike Zunino, Matt Duffy and Jesus Aguilar. They thus have two possible avenues to spending on, say, a catcher and cleanup hitter.
Toronto Blue Jays: Don't Be Too Patient to Start Adding
The Toronto Blue Jays are in the "hurry up and wait" phase of their rebuild.
They've already harvested some key fruits—i.e., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio—from their farm system, and their long-term books contain plenty of space for new contracts. But fresh off a 95-loss season, it's too soon to go all-in on contending.
However, it isn't too soon for Toronto's ownership to throw a good-faith bone to the club's young roster and fanbase. A multiyear contract for a much-needed veteran starting pitcher could energize both by bringing the organization's bright future into sharper focus.
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American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: It's Time to Make a Move
The Chicago White Sox had a palpable sense of progress in the 2019 season. Lucas Giolito, Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada blossomed as stars, and Eloy Jimenez was looking like one in September.
However, the White Sox still lost 89 games and ranked 20th in overall WAR. They're all but assured to re-sign veteran first baseman Jose Abreu this winter, but they may want to see if they make more progress in 2020 before they invest in additional veteran talent.
Yet compared to, say, the Blue Jays, the White Sox are in a better position to go for it. They should have plenty of money to spend, and the road to the top of the AL Central isn't long. With the right moves, they might at least catch up to the competition.
Cleveland Indians: Don't Underestimate What You Have
The Cleveland Indians were on a mission to cut payroll last winter, and they might not be in a mood to build it back up this winter. Even superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor could be expendable, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan.
But like the Red Sox, the Indians must not lose sight of what they have going for them. Albeit in a weak division, they won 93 games in 2019. And that was without healthy versions of Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco and a half-functional Jose Ramirez. All will be back and potentially better in 2020.
Even if they have to do it on a budget, the Indians should seek to add this offseason. They could especially use an impact outfielder and depth for their bullpen.
Detroit Tigers: Be Realistic with Matthew Boyd
The Detroit Tigers lost 114 games and allowed 333 more runs than they scored in 2019. To boot, their farm system experienced improved only mildly.
There isn't much the Tigers can do to push forward with their rebuild at this point, save for cashing in Matthew Boyd on the trade market. The 28-year-old broke out with 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings in 2019, and he's under club control for three more seasons.
However, Boyd won't have as much appeal as free agents like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg (if he opts out), Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel. The Tigers need to take both that and Boyd's season-ending slump into account when assessing a proper asking price.
Kansas City Royals: Few Players Should Be Untouchable
The Kansas City Royals are also a rebuilder coming off a 100-loss season, but they aren't quite in the same boat as the Tigers.
For one thing, the Royals' farm system improved quite a bit throughout 2019. And whereas the Tigers only have Boyd, the Royals have a handful of trade chips with which they might net a haul of young talent.
The only question is how many, if any, the Royals actually want to make available. Star shortstop Adalberto Mondesi notwithstanding, the answer should be all of them, up to and including Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield and Hunter Dozier. Trading them would dramatically hasten the team's rebuild.
Minnesota Twins: Don't Hold Back
The Minnesota Twins slugged an MLB-record 307 home runs and just missed tying a franchise record with 101 wins. Yet it was all for naught when the Yankees swept them in the ALDS.
An experience like that ought to have the Twins champing at the bit to get even better, but that's going to take some effort. With Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda and potentially Martin Perez about to hit free agency, they could have as many as four rotation spots to fill. They also have needs in their bullpen.
Fortunately, the Twins basically have nothing on their long-term books and good depth in their farm system. They therefore have what they need to go wild both in free agency and with trades, and they should do exactly that.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: Don't Give Up on Re-Signing Gerrit Cole
The Astros are preoccupied with winning the World Series at the moment. But before long, they'll be tasked with re-signing ace right-hander Gerrit Cole as a free agent.
It perhaps speaks volumes that team owner Jim Crane tried to temper expectations in late September, according to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle: "We'll see where we end up after the year. We may make a run at it. We're not sure yet."
But if ever there was a time for the Astros to add a huge contract to their books, it's surely in the middle of the most successful run of the franchise's history. And if they don't re-sign Cole, who's coming off the best single-season strikeout rate in MLB history, they risk emboldening the competition in the AL West.
Los Angeles Angels: Don't Skimp on Starting Pitching
Following their hire of Joe Maddon as their new manager, the Los Angeles Angels now need to go out and get the rest of a functional contender.
Their shopping list should include a catcher, relief pitchers and, above all, starting pitchers. The Angels lost their best starter when Tyler Skaggs tragically died in June, and the group as a whole ended up posting an MLB-low 0.8 WAR.
This problem can't be fixed with bargain-bin shopping. The Angels need to go all-in on Cole, and they should reset their sights on the likes of Stephen Strasburg, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel if they miss out on him.
Oakland Athletics: Now Is No Time for Being Cheap
Much of what we said about the Rays can also be said about the Oakland Athletics. Though the A's are also a notoriously frugal team, back-to-back 97-win seasons should have them in a mood to invest.
If there's a big difference with the A's, it's that they may have a clearer path to the top of their division. The Astros will be weakened if they indeed lose Cole to free agency. And even if the Angels add the parts they need, a drastic improvement on this season's 90 losses might still elude them.
Another difference is that the A's don't need a whole lot. Claiming AL West supremacy might be as simple as adding a mid-rotation starter and a late-inning reliever.
Seattle Mariners: Don't Give Away Mitch Haniger
Throughout the last year, the Seattle Mariners have been busy clearing their books and building up their farm system. Both are now in terrific shape.
But while the Mariners hypothetically could take such things as an excuse to point their ship back toward contention, general manager Jerry Dipoto indicated in September that they won't do so. He'll still be in rebuilding mode this winter.
Mitch Haniger therefore figures to hit the block, but the Mariners don't need to trade him. Though he's coming off an injury-ruined season, he was an elite outfielder as recently as 2018, and he's under club control for three more years. The Mariners can risk hanging on to him if no good offers come through.
Texas Rangers: Pick Your Battles
It should surprise nobody that the Texas Rangers are planning on raising their payroll in 2020. After all, they're getting ready to move into a new stadium fresh off a surprisingly competitive season.
The thing is, the Rangers have a lot of needs they could potentially fill. They were weak at catcher, first base, second base and third base in 2019, and they could also use outfielders and arms for both their starting rotation and their bullpen.
The Rangers won't get their ideal solutions to all of these problems, so they'll have to pick their battles. To wit, they already have two aces (Mike Minor and Lance Lynn) and two high-upside hitters (Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara), so upgrades at their positions aren't totally necessary.
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National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: Don't Hold Back
Rather than dig in their heels following their surprise 90-win 2018 season, the Atlanta Braves spent only $31 million in free agency over the winter and waited until June to sign Dallas Keuchel.
They won 97 games and a second straight NL East title anyway, but such a conservative approach should be out of the question this winter. And not just because Keuchel and Josh Donaldson headline a long list of free agents whose spots must be filled.
There's also the matter of the NL East's depth. With the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and NL champion Washington Nationals all in contention, the Braves can't play it safe and expect to retain power in the division. They should be ready to put both dollars and prospects toward new additions.
Miami Marlins: Caleb Smith Shouldn't Be Untouchable
As 105-losses seasons go, the Miami Marlins' 2019 campaign wasn't a total disaster. They made some trades that helped to turn their farm system into one of the best in baseball.
The Marlins can't make many more potential impact trades, but they're bound to get calls about Caleb Smith this winter. And even though the left-hander is under their control through 2023, they should be willing to listen.
Like Matt Boyd, Smith broke out as a strikeout artist early in 2019—he whiffed 11.0 batters per nine innings through July 29—before struggling down the stretch. But because Smith, 28, has an extra year of control over Boyd, pitching-needy teams may prefer him and be willing to pay more for him.
New York Mets: Don't Neglect Your Bullpen
The Mets didn't make the playoffs in 2019, but they won a respectable 86 games and got ahead on replacing Zack Wheeler with a surprise trade for Marcus Stroman.
The only other pending free agent who sticks out is Todd Frazier, whose departure will open a hole at the hot corner. But since breakout star J.D. Davis can fill said hole, the Mets don't necessarily have to go all-out for someone like Donaldson or Anthony Rendon.
The bullpen, on the other hand, will need attention. It's understandable if the Mets front office has misgivings about adding new faces after high-profile additions of Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia backfired in 2019, but it can't risk another 1.0-WAR season from relievers.
Philadelphia Phillies: Don’t Rush to 'Fix' Your Offense
The Phillies won only 81 games in 2019 in part because their offense didn't live up to its lofty billing. Its 4.8 runs per game were exactly the same as the NL average.
That ultimately comes down to Andrew McCutchen's season-ending knee injury and disappointing performances by newcomers Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto and incumbent Rhys Hoskins. In the wake of this experience, the Phillies may like the idea of spending big bucks on a big bat.
However, they're better off focusing on a pitching staff that produced a total of 9.3 WAR in 2019 and which generally needs depth in between ace Aaron Nola and closer Hector Neris. They can use free agency for that and hope for better returns from their key bats in 2020.
Washington Nationals: Don't Neglect Your Bullpen
No matter how the World Series pans out, the Nationals are headed for a pivotal offseason. They'll be tasked with re-signing not only Rendon, but also Stephen Strasburg if he opts out of his contract.
Regardless of how those pursuits pan out, the Nationals must also make their bullpen a priority. It produced a meager 0.1 WAR in the regular season, and it has only weathered the postseason because manager Dave Martinez has been able to rely strictly on Daniel Hudson, Sean Doolittle and Tanner Rainey.
By way of Hudson's free agency, the Nats will have at least one major hole in their pen to fill this winter. If they're smart, they'll fill it and pursue upgrades for other spots.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: Nobody Should Be Untouchable
Parting ways with manager Joe Maddon was the first step of a transitional phase for the Chicago Cubs. Now they must repair a roster whose returns have diminished since the club's historic 2016 season.
To this end, it would be easiest for the Cubs to entertain offers for players like Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Albert Almora Jr. Yet they'll probably get more calls about Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, and they must not hang up right away.
Trading either one of them could be a means for the Cubs to add the young pitching they sorely need. Such deals would also be a way for the Cubs to clear some salary—$18.5 million for Bryant and $9.3 million for Baez, according to MLB Trade Rumors—that could be reinvested elsewhere.
Cincinnati Reds: Don't Be Afraid to Trade for Impact Hitters
The Cincinnati Reds are going to be on the lookout for bats this winter. Their hitters ranked 22nd in WAR while scoring a pedestrian 4.3 runs per game in 2019.
The Reds' payroll can only go so high, however, and their long-term books are already crowded with commitments. It also happens that the two best hitters on the market (Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson) play the same position as 49-homer slugger Eugenio Suarez.
In light of these things, the Reds might be better off putting what prospect capital they have left toward the trade market. If they do, they might have a shot at game-changers like Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor and Starling Marte.
Milwaukee Brewers: Don't Let Yasmani Grandal Get Away
The Milwaukee Brewers have their work cut out for them in re-signing or replacing Gio Gonzalez, Drew Pomeranz and Jordan Lyles. They'll face further challenges if Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas decline their mutual options for 2020.
If they do, the Brewers will be tasked with replacing a catcher and third baseman who combined for 63 home runs in 2019. But between the two, the Brewers should be most adamant about keeping Grandal.
Between his offense and his framing talent, the 30-year-old ranked as the best overall catcher of 2019, per Baseball Prospectus. The Brewers would therefore face an impossible task of filling his shoes if he were to depart for more lucrative pastures, so they need to be ready to make him an offer to his liking.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Staying the Course Won't Get You Anywhere
Where do the Pittsburgh Pirates go after a 93-loss season that was marred by literal infighting and ultimately ended with the sacking of manager Clint Hurdle?
Good question. The Pirates might see their inferior major league roster and middling farm system as good reasons to rebuild. Alternatively, they could label 2019 as a fluke and retool for 2020 with funds from their fresh TV contract.
Whatever the case, the Pirates need to pick one direction or the other. Because in a division as competitive as the NL Central, they can't hope to rise up the ranks by merely staying the course.
St. Louis Cardinals: Don't Neglect Your Offense
The St. Louis Cardinals made it to the National League Championship Series, but the Nationals swept them in four games.
More than anything, the NLCS underscored the extreme weakness of the Cardinals offense. It produced a mediocre 4.7 runs per game in the regular season and was shut down to the tune of six runs and a .374 OPS in the NLCS.
Re-signing Marcell Ozuna is the least the Cardinals can do for their offense this winter. If they're serious about avoiding further offensive pitfalls in 2020, they should even be willing to go as far as signing Rendon or trading for Betts.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: Don't Underestimate What You Have
The Arizona Diamondbacks unloaded their most expensive and arguably best player when they traded Zack Greinke to the Astros in July. Such a maneuver typically heralds the beginning of a rebuild.
But these D-backs are different. They won a solid 85 games in 2019 despite the Greinke trade, and they accumulated nearly as much WAR as the Braves. Going forward, their clean books and deep farm system could help them make noise in free agency and on the trade market.
In short, the Snakes have what they need to be a legit contender as soon as 2020. They just need to believe they can be and act accordingly.
Colorado Rockies: Staying the Course Won't Get You Anywhere
The Colorado Rockies achieved a franchise first with consecutive postseason appearances in 2017 and 2018. But in 2019, everything crumbled en route to 91 losses.
The Rockies haven't given any indications that they want to rebuild, yet they're apparently unwilling to do what they must to hoist themselves out of the NL West cellar. According to Nick Groke of The Athletic, owner Dick Monfort doesn't foresee a payroll increase for 2020.
The Rockies are essentially the Pirates of the NL West. They need to pick a new direction, whether it's spending beyond their comfort zone or playing the long game with trades that would boost their poor farm system.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Don't Hold Back
Over the last seven seasons, the Los Angeles Dodgers have averaged 96 wins per season and played in the World Series twice. And yet their championship drought still dates back to 1988.
This is starting to feel less and less like bad luck. While president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman pulls off an impressive juggling act by maintaining a strong major league roster, a deep farm system and a manageable payroll, this act precludes him from ever going all-in during a particular season.
It's time for that to change. Rather than pinch pennies and hoard prospects, the Dodgers should do what they must on the free-agent and trade markets to build a truly unstoppable juggernaut.
San Diego Padres: Don't Be Afraid to Trade for a No. 1 Starter
The San Diego Padres are basically the inverse of the Reds. Their Manny Machado- and Fernando Tatis Jr.-led offense has potential, but they likely can't contend until they bolster their pitching staff.
Specifically, the Padres must improve a rotation that put up only 5.3 WAR in 2019. They have a clear need for a top-of-the-rotation starter who could serve as both a stopper and, ideally, as a leader for Chris Paddack and the organization's other young arms.
However, the big salaries the Padres already have on their books could make it tough to buy an ace in free agency. It could be easier for them to find one on the trade market, where sellers will surely have an interest in plucking talent from their top-ranked farm system.
San Francisco Giants: Don't Overestimate What You Have
The San Francisco Giants are coming off a third straight losing season, and they're now looking at life after Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith.
Then again, there have been signals from the Giants' front office that a reunion with Bumgarner shouldn't be ruled out. And in light of the pass they made at Bryce Harper last winter, perhaps it's not out of the question that they'll pursue even larger investments.
But the Giants must be careful about believing they're only a few pieces away from contention. They have a lot of salary tied up in older players who are clearly past their respective primes, and their farm system ranks in the middle of the pack. They're more pretender than contender, and they should act as such.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
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