Can Anyone Stop Tua Tagovailoa from Winning College Football's 2019 Heisman?

Tua Tagovailoa threw an interception this past weekend against Texas A&M, snapping a streak of 185 consecutive attempts without one.

Despite that rare demonstration that he is, in fact, a human being capable of error, the left-handed wonder not only remains the favorite to win the 2019 Heisman, but it's starting to feel like he cannot be caught.

Warning: Lethal doses of rat poison forthcoming.

Tagovailoa entered the week at -150 (bet $150 to win $100), per Caesars Sportsbook. Joe Burrow was +350 (bet $100 to win $350). Jalen Hurts was +450. No one else was closer than +1500. Burrow was almost perfect against an excellent Florida defense, posting a passing efficiency rating of at least 230 for the fourth time in six games. Hurts had some missteps with a bad interception and a brutal fumble, but he racked up 366 total yards and four touchdowns in leading the Sooners to a victory in the Red River Rivalry.

Those heroic efforts did little to help those gentlemen in the Heisman race, though, as Tagovailoa accounted for at least four touchdowns for the sixth consecutive game to maintain his status as the favorite. He is at -120 while Burrow and Hurts improved marginally to a tie at +275.

This is hard to believe if you'll recall what a sensation Tagovailoa was for the first two months of the 2018 season, but in many ways he has been significantly more proficient as a junior than he was as a sophomore.

He isn't quite as efficient as he was at this point last season, but his drastic increase in volume more than makes up for the slight decline from "historically efficient" to "still ridiculously dominant."

Instead of an average line of 12.7 completions on 16.8 attempts (75.2%) for 249.2 yards and 3.0 touchdowns per game, he is throwing nearly twice as often for an average line of 22.3-of-30.3 (73.6%) for 335.2 yards and 4.5 touchdowns with a passing efficiency rating of 214.3.

During his 15-game breakout campaign, Tagovailoa threw for 3,966 yards and 43 touchdowns, shattering Alabama single-season records in both categories. But if he were to maintain his current averages for 15 games, he would finish the year with more than 5,000 yards and approximately 67 touchdowns.

Considering only three players in FBS history have ever thrown for more than 50 touchdowns in a single season—Colt Brennan (58 in 2006), David Klingler (54 in 1990) and B.J. Symons (52 in 2003)—a number in the 60s is nothing short of mind-boggling.

It's not like he has to go through elite secondaries while trying to maintain that pace, either. As far as passing efficiency rating is concerned, the best defense left on Alabama's schedule is LSU's, which ranks 37th nationally at 119.3 and allowed both Texas and Florida to throw for more than 300 yards and four touchdowns.

So even though Burrow is putting up similar numbers (79.6% completion, 359.5 yards, 4.2 touchdowns, 218.1 PER), and even though Hurts has almost identical passing stats and better rushing stats than Kyler Murray had through six games last year, it's no surprise that Tagovailoa is the clear betting favorite to win the Heisman.

As long as he stays healthy and Alabama keeps winning, it's Tua's title to lose. And considering he has only been sacked seven times and ESPN's FPI projections give the Crimson Tide at least a 70 percent chance of winning each remaining game—including a 76.5 percent chance of a head-to-head, distance-creating victory over Burrow on Nov. 9—neither an injury nor a loss seems imminent.

Of course, we've been here before with Tagovailoa, and it didn't end in a Heisman Trophy last time.

Vasha Hunt/Associated Press

On October 15, 2018, Tagovailoa was listed at -180 to win the Heisman, per Action Network. At that point in the season, he had 21 passing touchdowns without an interception and an almost unfathomable passing efficiency rating of 248.1. Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins were tied in second place at +250, though it already felt like they were jostling for silver—not much unlike the current state of affairs. No one else was better than +1200.

By early November, there didn't even appear to be a competition anymore. Tagovailoa was -1000 and Murray was next closest at +900.

Here's a comparison to help put that number into context: Alabama closed as a 17-point favorite against Texas A&M this past week, and the moneyline bet on the Crimson Tide ranged from -800 to -1000, per Vegas Insider. In other words, -1000 isn't quite a "Rafa Nadal in the first round of the French Open" stone-cold lock, but it's darn close to a sure thing.

We all know how that turned out. Murray put on his dual-threat Superman cape week after week to save Oklahoma from its own putrid defense, knocking on a door that Tagovailoa threw wide-open with a disastrous SEC Championship performance.

And Tagovailoa certainly wasn't the first person to relinquish a perceived midseason stranglehold on the Heisman Trophy. In late October 2017, Saquon Barkley was the heavy favorite before finishing in a distant fourth place behind Baker Mayfield. Similar story for Leonard Fournette, who plummeted from clear favorite in mid-October 2015 to a sixth-place finish in that year's vote.

Lamar Jackson remains the exception to the rule, opening October 2016 as the favorite and hanging on to win it. But even he got a significant push from Deshaun Watson near the finish line.

So, no, the race isn't over, and it won't be until all the conference championship games have been played on December 7. However, this is probably your last chance to get a decent return on investment on a Tagovailoa bet, because he should annihilate Tennessee and Arkansas in the next two weeks before gradually running away with this thing throughout November.

Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.