One Dark-Horse MLB Free-Agency, Trade Suitor for the Top 25 Stars Available
The well-known adage that "You can't predict baseball" can be just as true of MLB's offseason as of the games themselves.
We've gotten ahead on sniffing out some hot-stove surprises by highlighting one potential dark horse for each of the top 25 free agents and trade targets—ranked according to their general desirability based on their talent, position, age and, in the case of trade chips, club control—on the market.
What makes a team a dark horse? It varies, but the general description is of a club that doesn't seem like an obvious fit for a player but swoops in to nab him anyway.
We didn't include players who could become free agents via opt-out clauses (J.D. Martinez, Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman) or options (Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas).
Let's get to it.
25. Trade Target: RHP Ken Giles, Toronto Blue Jays
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Assuming the San Diego Padres prefer to hang on to Kirby Yates, Ken Giles will be the top rental closer on the winter trade market.
The 29-year-old has bounced back from a lost 2018 to post a 1.90 ERA with 82 strikeouts in only 52 innings in 2019. But because they're not quite finished rebuilding, the Toronto Blue Jays will likely see what they can get for Giles before he becomes a free agent after 2020.
Giles' dwindling club control might limit his market to contenders with next year's World Series firmly in their sights. But there could be room for lesser yet still ambitious contenders, such as the Cincinnati Reds.
They're fresh off making a surprise trade for Trevor Bauer, who will still be part of a deep, talented starting rotation next season. A subsequent surprise trade for Giles would upgrade their bullpen and set them up to pitch their way to the 2020 postseason.
Dark Horse: Cincinnati Reds
24. Free Agent: LHP Cole Hamels
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The July 2018 trade that sent Cole Hamels to the Chicago Cubs helped revitalize his All-Star reputation to the tune of a 3.36 ERA over 38 starts.
But with his 36th birthday due up in December, Hamels may only be in the market for one- or two-year deals this winter. He might also value familiarity at this stage of his career, which could lead him home to San Diego or to a reunion with the Cubs or Philadelphia Phillies.
However, the other Chicago team might also have a shot at Hamels. The White Sox will need starters, after all, and they may be able to convince Hamels he'd be a perfect partner in crime for Lucas Giolito and a finishing piece for a roster that's loaded with young talent.
The right offer would also help the White Sox's chances. To this end, the cleanliness of their long-term books can only help.
Dark Horse: Chicago White Sox
23. Trade Target: LHP Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks
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The Arizona Diamondbacks scored a huge haul when they traded Zack Greinke in July. Further trades might nonetheless be in order this winter, starting with Robbie Ray.
From one perspective, the 27-year-old is a slightly above-average starter whose club control runs out in 2020. From another, he might be an ace in his walk year if he could only gain other talents to go with his elite strikeout ability.
The Houston Astros will be perhaps the most obvious suitor for Ray, and not just because they stand to lose Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley to free agency. He'd also be an ideal project for their famed pitching analytics gurus.
But keep an eye on the Texas Rangers. They'll be on the lookout for stars worthy of their new stadium. Perhaps they'll have a notion to work the same magic on Ray that they did on Mike Minor and Lance Lynn.
Dark Horse: Texas Rangers
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22. Free Agent: LHP Wade Miley
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Wade Miley seemed finished as a viable starter after four straight disappointing seasons, from 2014 to 2017. But over the last two years, he's reclaimed his dignity with a 3.52 ERA in 49 starts.
Yet the 32-year-old's value comes with strings attached. Since he's neither a strikeout artist nor a control specialist, he fits best with clubs that can put a good defense behind him.
If the Astros don't re-sign Miley, the Dodgers, Oakland Athletics and St. Louis Cardinals could give him a look. But while they're nobody's idea of big spenders, the Cleveland Indians might also get involved.
They might free up some money by trading Francisco Lindor or declining $34 million worth of club options belonging to Corey Kluber and Jason Kipnis. Even if they don't, they might still see Miley as an affordable fit for a rotation that could use a little stability.
Dark Horse: Cleveland Indians
21. Free Agent: RHP Jake Odorizzi
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After subsisting as a merely average starter from 2014 to 2018, Jake Odorizzi picked a good time to break out with a 3.51 ERA and 178 strikeouts in 159 innings.
The 29-year-old might be just unspectacular enough to avoid a qualifying offer from the Minnesota Twins. Even without that dragging him down, he may be ostracized for having a fly-ball style at a time when fly balls are more dangerous than ever.
Odorizzi will fit best with clubs that can offer him a big home ballpark and a good outfield defense. The Dodgers and A's, for example, could look at him and see a good fit.
But if Arizona leans into contention, few teams will make as much sense for Odorizzi as the Diamondbacks. Chase Field hasn't been a launching pad since it got its humidor, and he'd be pitching in front of an outfield that's racked up 32 defensive runs saved in 2019.
Dark Horse: Arizona Diamondbacks
20. Trade Target: LF Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs
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Now that the Cubs have been eliminated from playoff contention, the question becomes which executives, coaches and players will survive the winter.
Specifically, Kyle Schwarber has never looked more like a trade candidate. It's apparent that the 26-year-old won't become the elite hitter he was once billed as, so the Cubs might see if teams are willing to pay a premium for his club control through 2021 and his prodigious power. He's cranked 93 home runs since 2017.
Then again, not many teams need a pure power hitter these days. Least of all the Yankees and Twins, who've both shattered the previous record for home runs in a season.
But perhaps the Yankees will be open to doubling down on their power output with a trade for Schwarber. His left-handed stroke would go well with Yankee Stadium's short right field porch, and he could share left field, right field and designated hitter with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
Dark Horse: New York Yankees
19. Free Agent: SS Didi Gregorius
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Didi Gregorius established himself as one of the better shortstops in MLB in 2018. But then he underwent Tommy John surgery last October and hasn't quite recaptured his best form this season.
For the Yankees, this may lead to an opportunity to re-sign the 29-year-old at a favorable rate. If they don't, the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets—who could move Amed Rosario to center field—will be obvious fallbacks on account of their common need to upgrade at shortstop.
But the Reds could be a crasher of the Gregorius party. They'll have an open hole at short once free agency claims Jose Iglesias. Gregorius would not only fill it, but he'd also provide their offense with some left-handed power. He's clubbed 88 homers over the last four seasons.
Gregorius himself, meanwhile, may be happy to go home to the organization that first signed him in 2007.
Dark Horse: Cincinnati Reds
18. Trade Target: RF Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners
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In 2018, Mitch Haniger was an All-Star who finished with 6.1 wins above replacement, according to Baseball Reference. He sunk to 1.4 WAR through his first 63 games of 2019 before a ruptured testicle ended his season.
As such, now might not be the best time for the Seattle Mariners to trade the 28-year-old. But rather than pay him a raise via arbitration, they might try to sell teams on his talent and three remaining years of club control.
Haniger hypothetically fits best on contenders with holes in their outfields and plenty of prospects in their farm systems. For instance, the Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays.
Yet Haniger could also be an option for the Cubs, who may need to replace Nicholas Castellanos amid their winter retooling effort. In lieu of prospects, they might base a deal with the Mariners around established major leaguers such as Schwarber, Albert Almora Jr. or Ian Happ.
Dark Horse: Chicago Cubs
17. Free Agent: RF Yasiel Puig
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Though Yasiel Puig was saved from a qualifying offer by the July trade that sent him from the Reds to the Indians, he still may be in for a difficult time in free agency.
If teams aren't turned off by his history of controversial behavior, they might be turned off by his track record of inconsistent production. He hasn't been a true star-caliber performer since 2013 and 2014.
Still, some teams will zero in on Puig as a source of power, speed and good defense in right field. And the further his price drops, the more the field might open up.
Puig's price could end up being right even for the Rays, who will so happen to have needs for a right-handed slugger and an everyday right fielder this winter.
Dark Horse: Tampa Bay Rays
16. Free Agent: LHP Will Smith
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Though his value could be compromised by ties to draft-pick compensation if he rejects a qualifying offer from the San Francisco Giants, Will Smith will otherwise have plenty going for him in free agency.
Smith missed all of 2017 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, yet he's come back with a 2.66 ERA and 4.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the last two seasons. He's also a rare left-hander who typically doesn't have much of a platoon split.
Smith, 30, will be the top free-agent option for clubs in need of late-inning relief. That list covers usual suspects such as the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs.
But don't count out the New York Yankees. They've grown accustomed to having strong bullpens in recent years, but their need for Smith will only grow if ace closer Aroldis Chapman opts out of his contract and follows fellow relief ace Dellin Betances onto the open market.
Dark Horse: New York Yankees
15. Free Agent: LF Marcell Ozuna
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Marcell Ozuna may never have another season like he did in 2017, which he finished with a .924 OPS, 37 homers and 6.1 WAR.
Nonetheless, the 28-year-old is generally one of the better left fielders in baseball. He hit 23 homers in a "down" 2018 season, and he's played well with an .807 OPS, 29 homers and a career-high 12 stolen bases in 2019. Despite a likely qualifying offer, he'll be one of the top position players on the market.
The Cardinals could make a bid to bring him back. If not, the Padres, Reds and Colorado Rockies could see him as a fix for holes in left field.
Not to be overlooked, however, are the Red Sox. They don't need Ozuna now, but that could change if they trade Mookie Betts or have J.D. Martinez opt out of his contract. Either incident would open a need for a right-handed slugger who can play the outfield.
Dark Horse: Boston Red Sox
14. Free Agent: RF Nicholas Castellanos
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At least the Cubs' deal for Nicholas Castellanos went right for them. All he's done in 51 games since a deadline-day trade with the Detroit Tigers is post a 1.002 OPS with 37 extra-base hits.
The swap also cleared Castellanos of qualifying-offer eligibility, but he shouldn't dream of a megadeal just yet. He's more of a good hitter than a great one, and his defense is a notorious liability. He therefore fits the mold of a player who'll get a wide berth on the modern free-agent market.
If so, the tide might end up taking the 27-year-old back to the Cubs. Or perhaps to the White Sox, Reds or Red Sox if the latter does indeed lose Betts or Martinez.
Or, it might take him to Miami. If the Marlins are in a mood to spur their rebuild and generate fan interest with a big signing, they could do worse than a Miami native who makes loud noises in the batter's box.
Dark Horse: Miami Marlins
13. Free Agent: RHP Zack Wheeler
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Zack Wheeler has never shown anything other than electric stuff, yet his tenure with the Mets will be defined by modest results on either side of a two-year recovery from Tommy John surgery.
The 29-year-old is going to be a coveted free agent anyway. Good pitchers are hard to find, after all, and within said electric stuff—namely his high-velocity fastball—resides the potential for greatness.
The Astros are an obvious landing spot for Wheeler. But given that his price is unlikely to be extreme, he could just as easily end up with the Red Sox, Yankees, Brewers, Twins, Rangers or Los Angeles Angels.
But on the off chance Wheeler goes looking for a one-year contract with the idea in mind to become an ace and try free agency again after 2020, the Rays might be in play. They could use the extra stability in their rotation, and Wheeler could well turn into a Glasnow-ian success story in their hands.
Dark Horse: Tampa Bay Rays
12. Free Agent: LHP Dallas Keuchel
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Dallas Keuchel entered last year's free-agent market with a Cy Young Award and two All-Star selections on his resume. Yet he had to wait for a one-year contract that didn't come until June.
The 31-year-old has shrugged off his bad experience by posting a solid 3.59 ERA over 107.2 innings in 18 starts with the Braves. He's due to once again enter the market as a top-of-the-rotation option, except his market won't be complicated by draft-pick compensation this time.
Since he's nothing if not a ground-ball specialist, only teams with lockdown infield defenses may have serious interest in Keuchel. Those might notably include the Dodgers, Cardinals and Astros.
If the market shuns Keuchel again, however, the A's might sniff an opportunity to add him at an agreeable rate. They could indeed use a veteran No. 1 starter, and Keuchel would fit well with their defense and in their huge home stadium.
Dark Horse: Oakland Athletics
11. Trade Target: INF/OF Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals
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The Kansas City Royals have resisted trading Whit Merrifield in the past, but that might change once new owner John Sherman takes charge this winter.
If so, the Royals could offer the trade market a player with a wide appeal. Merrifield is an All-Star with a .295 career average, some power and speed and plenty of versatility on defense. To boot, the 30-year-old is signed to a club-friendly deal that runs as far as 2023.
It's difficult to pick out dark horses for Merrifield because he hypothetically fits anywhere. The only way a surprise will happen is if a merely borderline contender coughs up a big prospect package for him.
The Diamondbacks might be game. Rather than continue to hoard talent in their farm system, they could sacrifice some for Merrifield so they can use him as a primary second baseman and leadoff hitter.
Dark Horse: Arizona Diamondbacks
10. Trade Target: CF Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates
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If they're so inclined, a trade of Starling Marte could be the Pittsburgh Pirates' first step into a rebuild this winter.
The low point of Marte's career came in 2017 when he was suspended for 80 games for using performance-enhancing drugs. Yet the 30-year-old has come back with an .816 OPS, 43 homers, 58 steals and 6.6 WAR over the last two years. He has club options through 2021 worth a total of $24 million.
According to Michael J. Duarte of NBC Los Angeles, the Dodgers made a play for Marte last winter. They might do so again this offseason, though they could face competition from clubs such as the Mets, Cubs and Rockies.
But if the Padres decide they can do better than Manuel Margot in center field, they could sneak into the bidding for Marte. Given the sheer depth of the Padres' farm system, the Pirates might be just fine with talking to them.
Dark Horse: San Diego Padres
9. Free Agent: LHP Madison Bumgarner
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Madison Bumgarner isn't the same guy who won three World Series rings and averaged a 3.00 ERA and 198 innings from 2010 to 2016.
However, he's also far from being useless. He's recovered from injury-marred seasons in 2017 and 2018 to rack up an NL-high 207.2 innings in 2019, and he's done so with a solid 3.90 ERA.
Even still, Bumgarner's diminished talent and likely ties to draft-pick compensation won't help him on the open market. If the Braves don't grant his apparent wish (per MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi, h/t CBSSports.com) for a homecoming, it might be a return to the Giants or bust for the 30-year-old.
But of all the teams that could mount a surprise run for Bumgarner, the Padres might emerge as an especially serious suitor. They need his experience in their rotation, and they might also sell him on staying in the NL West with a rising contender.
Dark Horse: San Diego Padres
8. Free Agent: LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu
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Hyun-Jin Ryu took the unusual step of accepting the Dodgers' qualifying offer last winter, thereby opting for a $17.9 million check over a chance to earn more on the open market.
This has worked out wonderfully for the Dodgers. Ryu, 32, has remained healthy and pitched to an MLB-best 2.41 ERA over 175.2 innings. He's in the running for the NL Cy Young Award.
Nevertheless, Ryu's age and injury history—he missed all of 2015 and made only 41 appearances from 2016 to 2018—won't be ignored in free agency. Factor in his comfort and familiarity with the Dodgers, and it's frankly hard to imagine him leaving Chavez Ravine.
But if there's one team that has a shot at stealing Ryu, it's probably the Angels. They wouldn't be asking Ryu to move far, and he might like the sound of teaming up with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani to lift the franchise out of its funk.
Dark Horse: Los Angeles Angels
7. Free Agent: 3B Josh Donaldson
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Josh Donaldson started breaking down in 2017, and he could barely play in 2018, much less hit like he did during his MVP-winning peak with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Yet the Braves made a $23 million bet on Donaldson last winter anyway, and he's reclaimed his superstardom with a .901 OPS, 37 homers and 6.1 WAR. Though he'll likely be hurt by his age (34 in December) and ties to draft-pick compensation, he should nonetheless be in for a big contract this offseason.
The Braves will presumably make a bid to bring Donaldson back. He'll also appeal to third base-needy clubs such as the Rangers, Phillies and even the Washington Nationals if Anthony Rendon signs elsewhere.
The Brewers also might come calling if Mike Moustakas declines his mutual option for 2020. Signing Donaldson would fit with the club's recent track record of surprise additions, and his right-handed power would perfectly complement Christian Yelich's left-handed thump.
Dark Horse: Milwaukee Brewers
6. Trade Target: RF Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
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Only Mike Trout has produced more WAR than Mookie Betts since the latter arrived in the majors in 2014. That speaks to all Betts can do with his bat, legs, arm and glove.
Yet Betts, who turns 27 on October 7, has put the Red Sox in a difficult position by steadfastly refusing extension overtures. They might extract more value from trading him than from keeping him for his walk year in 2020.
Betts' looming free agency and likely $30 million salary for next season are why he isn't at the top of this list, yet there will be calls if the Red Sox make him available. They may be especially keen on talking to talent-rich contenders such as the Padres, Braves and Dodgers.
But dare we say not to count out the White Sox? They have enough talent for a Betts trade, and gathering additional necessary pieces for a run in 2020 could just be a matter of spending in free agency.
Dark Horse: Chicago White Sox
5. Trade Target: RHP Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
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Noah Syndergaard is under the Mets' control through 2021, yet that hasn't stopped them from occasionally dangling him on the trade market.
In the wake of his spat with his bosses over throwing to Wilson Ramos, the Mets may once again be in a dangling mood with Syndergaard this winter. If so, pitching-needy clubs figure to be more enthused by the 27-year-old's high-octane stuff than frightened by his modest 4.30 ERA.
Teams such as the Astros, Yankees, Padres, Angels and Twins figure to be at the center of the Thor rumor mill this winter. But the Mets' best bet might be to deal with teams made desperate by an inability to buy arms in free agency.
For instance, the Rockies. If the threat of pitching at Coors Field prevents them from adding a much-needed starter in free agency, they might justify a blockbuster for Syndergaard by reasoning that his velocity will help him conquer Denver's thin air.
Dark Horse: Colorado Rockies
4. Trade Target: 3B Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
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Schwarber isn't the only Cub who could land on the winter trade market. There could also be room for Kris Bryant.
He isn't due for free agency until after 2021, so the Cubs will presumably only move him if they get an offer they can't refuse. But it's possible that such an offer could materialize. Bryant is a three-time All-Star and one-time MVP, after all, and he's mustered a .903 OPS and 31 homers despite some hardships in 2019.
The 27-year-old will be a target for clubs that need a third baseman but don't have the money to sign Rendon or Donaldson. Or, for teams that simply want him.
Case in point, the Twins. His power would more than replenish what they'll lose from Jonathan Schoop's free agency, and they could make room for him by moving Miguel Sano across the diamond to first base. Plus, they have to do something with all their prospect depth.
Dark Horse: Minnesota Twins
3. Trade Target: SS Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
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If the Indians continue to have trouble keeping their payroll in check this winter, they might not have much choice but to field offers for the best shortstop in baseball.
Per his 28.6 WAR, Francisco Lindor has been exactly that since he debuted in 2015. Even despite injuries that sidelined him for most of April, he's more than earned his $10.9 million salary with an .854 OPS, 31 homers, 22 steals and 4.8 WAR in 2019.
If the Tribe does indeed make Lindor available, teams will line up for the chance to install him at short through 2021. In particular, the Yankees, Reds, Brewers and Mets might like to have him.
Yet so might the Cubs, who could make room for Lindor by moving Javier Baez from short to second base. They would simply first have to entice Cleveland with a spare major leaguer such as Ian Happ, Albert Almora Jr. or even Nico Hoerner.
Dark Horse: Chicago Cubs
2. Free Agent: 3B Anthony Rendon
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Anthony Rendon picked a heck of a time to go from being an underrated star to a full-blown superstar.
After putting up a .923 OPS and 49 homers across 2017 and 2018, the 29-year-old has exploded for a 1.012 OPS and a collection of 80 extra-base hits that includes a career-high 34 long balls. He also plays a pretty good third base when he's not crushing baseballs.
Despite inevitable ties to draft-pick compensation, Rendon will likely be on the lookout for a contract worth more than $200 million this winter. The Nationals, Phillies, Rangers and Mets are perhaps the most likely bidders for his services.
Yet the Cardinals might sneak up on everyone else in the Rendon sweepstakes. In light of how weak their offense has been even with Marcell Ozuna in the mix, they might deem his bat worth paying for. They could make space for it by moving Matt Carpenter off third base or trading him.
Dark Horse: St. Louis Cardinals
1. Free Agent: RHP Gerrit Cole
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Gerrit Cole had an excellent year in 2018, but his 2019 season is one of baseball's all-time best walk years.
Cole, 29, has racked up an AL-best 2.52 ERA, and his 316 strikeouts are the most since Randy Johnson whiffed 334 batters in 2002. His rate of 13.7 strikeouts per nine innings, meanwhile, is the best single-season mark in MLB history.
Like Rendon, Cole's inevitable ties to draft-pick compensation won't matter that much on the free-agent market. He's going to get at least $200 million and as much as $250 million. The Astros, Yankees, Angels and Phillies are the top candidates to back up the Brinks truck.
Unless the Nationals beat them to it. They like doing business with Scott Boras, who so happens to represent Cole. And if they lose Rendon and potentially Stephen Strasburg if he opts out of his deal, they'll have both the means and the need for the biggest possible splash.
Dark Horse: Washington Nationals
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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