
Start 'Em or Sit 'Em for Fantasy Football Week 1
The 2019 NFL season is just about here.
Thursday's matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears at Soldier Field isn't just the beginning of another NFL season. It also means that another year of fantasy football is set to get underway.
After carefully assembling your roster on draft day, it's now time to set your first lineup of the season and resist the temptation to overthink it.
Every year, fantasy managers get to the precipice of a new season and start second-guessing their own decisions. They look at an unfavorable matchup and wonder whether they should bench a tailback or receiver they just spent a high draft pick on.
That's rarely a wise course of action.
Most of what we think we know about matchups is based on the 2018 season, and a lot can change in a year. You eventually may need to consider sitting high-end starters, but not on the first weekend of the season.
Now that we have that caveat out of the way, let's do something we're going to do every week during the 2019 season here at Bleacher Report: hit some of the fantasy start/sit questions asked on the B/R app.
Wide Receiver Help
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This type of question is common early in the season. This has the look of a WR corps that was built after focusing on running backs early in the draft.
Cooper Kupp is the most obvious start of the group. After recovering from a torn ACL, he could easily be the highest-scoring fantasy wideout for the Los Angeles Rams in 2019, and he's going against a Carolina Panthers team that could turn this game into a shootout.
There's some concern about Robby Anderson's Week 1 status because of a calf injury, but he's reportedly trending toward playing. Given the rapport he showed with New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold late last year and in the preseason, fire him up against the Buffalo Bills.
The last spot is a close call between Mike Williams and Dede Westbrook, but the edge goes to the top pass-catcher for a Jacksonville Jaguars team that could easily find itself playing catch-up against the high-powered Kansas City Chiefs offense.
The Call: Kupp, Anderson and Westbrook
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams or Kirk Cousins and Dede Westbrook?
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This is a classic example of overthinking.
Yes, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins should have success at home Sunday against an Atlanta Falcons team that allowed the sixth-most passing yards in 2018. And yes, Dede Westbrook has the potential to exceed expectations as the No. 1 receiver in Jacksonville this year.
The Chicago Bears also held Aaron Rodgers in check the last time these teams met in Chicago, although Davante Adams posted a respectable eight catches for 119 yards.
But Adams and Rodgers were both top-five picks at their respective positions in 2019. If you sit them and they blow up in the season opener Thursday, you'll spend the rest of the weekend berating yourself.
The Call: Rodgers and Adams
The Elliott Fiasco
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This fantasy manager was undoubtedly glad to hear that the Dallas Cowboys gave star tailback Ezekiel Elliott a six-year, $90 million extension Wednesday, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.
But can fantasy managers totally trust Elliott to be game-ready for Week 1 after he sat out all of training camp and the preseason?
The short answer? No. At least not if you have a viable alternative. It's great to have Elliott back, but the Cowboys plan to play him only 20 to 25 snaps, per NFL Network's Jane Slater.
In this case, though, Derrius Guice and Justin Jackson stretch the definition of "viable." Neither will be a workhorse, and Guice's matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles isn't good.
Even with Elliott on a (reported) pitch count, he offers more upside than that pair.
At the flex spot, Calvin Ridley is the play. Curtis Samuel is a talented young receiver, and Ridley isn't likely to catch double-digit touchdowns again. But with Xavier Rhodes likely to shadow Julio Jones, Ridley should draw Minnesota Vikings cornerback Trae Waynes in coverage Sunday.
That's a good thing.
The Call: Elliott and Ridley
Miles Sanders or Marlon Mack?
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Andrew Luck's unexpected retirement raises questions about the fantasy stock for the Indianapolis Colts' skill-position talent.
Opponents aren't going to respect the Colts' passing game as much with Jacoby Brissett under center until he makes them pay for it. That means Marlon Mack may be facing eight-man boxes in the early part of the season, including the Week 1 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers.
However, Miles Sanders will split time with Jordan Howard against the Washington Redskins, while Mack is the unquestioned lead back for a Colts team facing a Chargers defense that allowed the 10th-most PPR points to running backs in 2018.
Follow the touches, and don't panic about Indy's offense yet.
The Call: Mack
What to Do About Damien Williams?
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Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon III weren't the only running backs with major fantasy questions hanging over them this summer.
Although Damien Williams was drafted as a high-end RB2 in most leagues, there were worries about whether the Kansas City Chiefs trusted a player who has never carried the ball more than 50 times in a season as a featured back. Those concerns only ramped up after LeSean McCoy reunited with Chiefs head coach Andy Reid following his release from the Buffalo Bills.
Without knowing the other running backs on this specific roster, it's impossible to say whether Williams should be started in a less-than-stellar fantasy matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
However, McCoy has been in Kansas City for only a handful of days. Even once he's up to speed on the offense, Williams is still likely to lead the Chiefs in backfield touches.
In Week 1 at least, Williams should be relatively OK.
The Call: Start Williams as you normally would.
Hunter Henry or Eric Ebron?
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Once you get outside the "Big Three" tight ends of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and George Kittle, the position is essentially nothing but questions.
However, this particular question isn't a tough call.
Eric Ebron had a fantastic 2018 season, finishing with 66 catches for 750 yards and 13 touchdowns in his first season with the Indianapolis Colts. However, that breakout campaign came with Andrew Luck under center.
With Jacoby Brissett now taking over for Luck and fellow tight end Jack Doyle back in the lineup, Ebron isn't likely to repeat that statistical outburst.
On the other hand, Henry sat out the entire 2018 season with a torn ACL. But to this point in his career, he's already proved to be a reliable red-zone target, with 12 touchdown catches over his first two seasons.
Henry is the play here by a fair margin.
The Call: Henry
A QB Quandary
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You might have waited to draft a quarterback, availing yourself of the depth available at the position while loading up running backs and wide receivers.
Of course, that creates problems of its own—like knowing which of these low-end weekly starters to roll out in Week 1.
Ben Roethlisberger led the NFL in passing yards last year on his way to a top-five fantasy finish in many scoring systems. He's perhaps the single most undervalued player at the position in 2019.
But Pittsburgh lost both star receiver Antonio Brown and star tailback Le'Veon Bell this offseason, and Roethlisberger's stat line against the New England Patriots at home in Week 15 last year wasn't spectacular (235 passing yards, 2 TD, 2 INT).
With this latest matchup taking place at Gillette Stadium and Lamar Jackson opening the season against a Dolphins team that was kind to opposing quarterbacks a year ago, the smart play is Jackson in a game that could easily be a rout.
The Call: Jackson
Robert Woods or Alshon Jeffery?
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This wide receiver question is pretty tough because it features a pair of comparable options—and I'm relatively high on both entering the 2019 season.
Based on last year's production, it would appear that Rams receiver Robert Woods is an easy call. While Eagles receiver Alshon Jeffery missed three games in 2018 and came up short of 900 receiving yards, Woods set career highs across the board and finished inside WR1 territory in 12-team PPR fantasy leagues.
But it's not that simple. While Jeffery is the unquestioned No. 1 receiver for an Eagles team that gets a healthy Carson Wentz back at quarterback, Woods has to compete with Brandin Cooks and a now-healthy Cooper Kupp for targets with the Rams.
The matchups are similar—L.A.'s is slightly better in terms of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers in 2018, but both the Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins were among the 10 most porous defenses in that category.
All told, Woods had the better production last year and has a slightly better matchup, and the Panthers have a better chance of staying in their Week 1 meeting at home against the Rams than the Redskins do in Philadelphia.
It's a close call, though.
The Call: Woods
Decisions, Decisions
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The most important decisions in fantasy football are sometimes the hardest ones to make. An uninspiring flex play can be the difference between victory and defeat.
There aren't any sure things in this group.
Green Bay Packers wideout Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Carolina Panthers receiver Curtis Samuel face two of the NFL's better defenses in the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams, respectively. Buffalo Bills rookie running back Devin Singletary faces uncertainty about his workload despite LeSean McCoy's release. And Denver Broncos wideout Courtland Sutton will be catching passes from Joe Flacco, who isn't exactly known for producing fantasy stars at wide receiver.
In standard-scoring leagues, it's usually smart to follow the touches and go with the running back (in this case, Singletary).
In PPR leagues, it's a trickier call. But of those options, the Panthers are the most likely team to be forced to play catch-up with the Rams.
So, Samuel it is—albeit without much confidence.
The Call: Singletary in standard leagues, Samuel in PPR
Have other fantasy football Start/Sit questions? Post them here, on the Bleacher Report App or hit me up on Twitter (@IDPSharks) and I'll do my best to help.
Gary Davenport was the Fantasy Sports Writers Association 2017 Football Writer of the Year.
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