Deal or No Deal: MLB Trade Predictions 1 Week from the Deadline
We are one week away from the MLB trade deadline, and things remain eerily quiet.
By this time last year, All-Stars Manny Machado and Brad Hand were already wearing new uniforms, and the rumor mill was churning out fresh nuggets on a regular basis.
The elimination of August waiver trades has undoubtedly changed how teams are approaching the deadline, and with cluttered wild-card races in both leagues, more teams than ever can make a case for buying or at least standing pat.
Still, there will inevitably be at least a few major moves completed in the next week, and we took some of the players most frequently mentioned as being in trade talks and separated them into two categories:
- Deal: We think these players will be moved. We also proposed destinations.
- No Deal: We expect these players to stay put, whether it's because of high asking prices or an unwillingness by their teams to make them readily available.
This time around, players in the "no deal" category were lumped into hitters, starting pitchers and relief pitchers to condense things a bit.
Let's get to it.
Deal: Todd Frazier Traded to the Chicago Cubs
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Hear me out, Chicago Cubs fans.
The Milwaukee Brewers took a chance on signing Mike Moustakas and trying him out at second base for the first time in his career.
He's rewarded that leap of faith with an excellent offensive season (124 OPS+, 26 HR) and taken to his new position with aplomb (2 DRS, 3.1 UZR/150), even earning a spot on the NL All-Star team.
Second base has been the biggest hole on the Cubs roster from a value standpoint, producing negative-0.9 WAR.
Could exploring a similar defensive transition with Todd Frazier be the answer?
Unlike Moustakas, who had never lined up at second base as a pro prior to this year, Frazier actually has some experience at the position. He tallied 346.1 innings there during his time in the minors and another eight innings in the majors during his first season in 2011.
He could still play semiregularly at third base when Kris Bryant plays the outfield, and he's also capable of manning first base when Anthony Rizzo gets a day off.
The 33-year-old has an .830 OPS with 10 home runs in 170 plate appearances since the beginning of June, and the New York Mets should be motivated to move him in the final year of his contract.
He's owed roughly $3.5 million the rest of the season, so squeezing him into a tight payroll window is not out of the question, and the acquisition cost should be minimal.
No Deal: The Red-Hot San Francisco Giants Stand Pat
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Let's start by eliminating several of the top names from the trade conversation:
- Madison Bumgarner
- Will Smith
- Tony Watson
- Sam Dyson
All of them will stay put unless a desperate contender comes along with an over-the-top offer of young, controllable, MLB-ready talent.
When June ended, the San Francisco Giants were 11 games under .500, and it looked like it was only a matter of time before the fire sale commenced.
A 15-3 showing so far in July, however, has changed things.
They are now one game over .500 and just two games back for the second National League wild-card spot, which makes it awfully difficult to justify selling, even if it is in the best long-term interest of the team.
Since they have some quality depth at Triple-A, there is still a chance they will flip one of their relievers if the right offer comes along. Bumgarner looks like a safe bet to stay put, though, and standing pat appears to be the most likely course of action.
Who would have guessed?
Deal: RP Shane Greene Traded to the Atlanta Braves
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The Tigers would be foolish not to sell high on All-Star closer Shane Greene.
While he saved 32 games last season, he did it with an unsightly 5.12 ERA, and prior to that, he had just one effective season as a reliever.
This year, he's trimmed his ERA to a sterling 1.25 while saving 22 games in 25 chances, but his 3.81 FIP is a good indicator he has been pitching over his head, and his .174 BABIP against speaks to some good luck.
With team control through 2020 and limited options on the market for teams looking to add a quality late-inning arm, now is the time for the Tigers to cash in.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves have been leaning on Luke Jackson to close, and while he's done an admirable job, finding an upgrade is not the worst idea.
While his FIP raises some questions about the sustainability of his ERA, there is also a lot to like about Greene's performance this year.
His groundball rate is way up (+12.6%), and his hard-contact rate is down (-8.9%), lending at least some credibility to the huge dip in his opponents' BABIP. His strikeout rate has also spiked (+4.7%), and there's no question he has late-inning stuff.
The Braves would get a multiyear answer to their ninth-inning question, while the Tigers would sell at peak value.
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No Deal: Whit Merrifield, Nick Castellanos, Trey Mancini, Kole Calhoun Stay Put
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It's a paper-thin market for teams looking to add offensive firepower.
The Kansas City Royals are seeking a king's ransom in exchange for Whit Merrifield, and no one has been willing to meet that asking price so far, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network. The 30-year-old is in the midst of another stellar season and just signed an outrageously team-friendly four-year, $16.3 million extension, so the Royals have no reason to back down.
The Detroit Tigers are probably better off taking the draft pick compensation that would come with extending a qualifying offer to Nicholas Castellanos in the offseason than they are trading him for a mediocre return. He can hit, but his defensive shortcomings and rental status limit his trade value.
Trey Mancini is having an excellent season for the Baltimore Orioles with a 130 OPS+ and 21 home runs. With team control through 2022, he won't come cheap, and his track record just isn't there for anyone to pay what the O's will be asking.
Unless the Los Angeles Angels think top prospect Jo Adell will be ready to take over an everyday job by Opening Day 2020, it makes sense for them to hold on to Kole Calhoun and exercise his $14 million club option for next season than it does to trade him.
At this point, it looks like contenders will have to settle for the likes of Eric Sogard, Danny Santana, Derek Dietrich and other fringe starters in their search for offensive help.
Deal: RP Ken Giles Traded to the Minnesota Twins
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The Minnesota Twins' lead in the AL Central standings is dwindling.
In their last 30 games, the Twins have gone 14-16 while the Cleveland Indians have gone 22-8, and an 11-game cushion has been trimmed to just three games.
The bullpen looks like the obvious place for an impact addition.
The team has converted just 5-of-9 save chances in July, and aside from left-hander Taylor Rogers, the relief corps is lacking in true shutdown arms. Ryne Harper and Blake Parker have been solid, but neither veteran has overpowering stuff, and the rest of the bullpen has been hit-or-miss.
Swinging a trade for Toronto Blue Jays closer Ken Giles would allow them to push everyone down a spot, thus strengthening the entire relief corps by stabilizing the foundation.
Giles, 28, has nailed down 14-of-15 save opportunities with a 1.64 ERA and a career-high 15.5 K/9 in 33 appearances. His 43.1 percent strikeout rate trails only Josh Hader's 50.0 percent among pitchers with at least 30 innings.
It's unlikely the Blue Jays will be in a position to contend next season, so selling high on Giles when he still has a year of control remaining looks like the best way to maximize his value.
Veteran Daniel Hudson is also having a strong season for the Blue Jays with a 2.72 ERA, eight holds and two saves in 40 appearances. He's earning a team-friendly $1.5 million on a one-year contract, so it might be worth exploring a package deal that includes him.
No Deal: RPs Kirby Yates and Alex Colome Stay Put
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Last year, the San Diego Padres traded closer Brad Hand six months after they signed him to a three-year deal with a club option for a fourth, so never say never when it comes to their flipping a relief pitcher at peak value.
All signs, however, point to All-Star Kirby Yates staying put this summer.
According to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, "it would take an overwhelming offer" to convince the Padres to move him, and why not?
The 32-year-old has converted 31 of 33 save chances with a 1.05 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 14.7 strikeouts per nine innings in 41 appearances, and he's under team control through next season.
The Chicago White Sox are in a similar position as a young team on the rise with hopes of contending in 2020 and a standout closer who is under contract through next year.
Despite a poor 7.0 strikeouts per nine innings, Alex Colome has been effective this year with 21 saves in 22 chances and a 2.33 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 39 games.
The emergence of Aaron Bummer and Colome's steep $7.3 million price tag this year—plus the fact it will only climb in his final year of arbitration—could be reason enough for the White Sox to listen to offers, but it's still unlikely they will move him.
Deal: Robbie Ray Traded to the Oakland Athletics
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With a 51-50 record, the Arizona Diamondbacks had a 17.3 percent chance of reaching the postseason entering play Tuesday, according to FanGraphs.
"We're going to have to make a complicated decision. It just doesn't appear that it's going to be an easily defined decision," general manager Mike Hazen told reporters earlier this month. "I don't think it has to be as drastic as buy/sell. Like in this offseason, there may be some creative things we need to do to help us now and in the future, and I think those possibilities exist."
If you'll recall, these are the same D-backs that traded Paul Goldschmidt during the offseason but did it with an eye toward helping themselves in the near future by acquiring Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly for the soon-to-be free agent.
If things play out as we've predicted and Trevor Bauer, Matthew Boyd, Mike Minor and Zack Wheeler all stay put, this could be the team that makes the most of a seller's market.
Moving Zack Greinke will be tough given all the money he's still owed, but left-hander Robbie Ray could net them a significant haul.
The 27-year-old has a 3.95 ERA with 162 strikeouts in 123 innings, and he's controllable through the 2020 season, making now the time to get the most out of his trade value.
Unless the Oakland Athletics are supremely confident in the return of Sean Manaea from Tommy John surgery and the impending arrivals of Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk as a means of bolstering the pitching staff, adding a starter is a must.
Ray is relatively cheap with a $6.1 million salary that won't be untenable even with a decent raise next year in arbitration, and a package built around a resurgent Jorge Mateo and Sheldon Neuse might be enough to get a deal done.
No Deal: SPs Trevor Bauer, Matthew Boyd, Mike Minor and Zack Wheeler Stay Put
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There are a lot of intriguing names on the starting pitching market, but how many of them will actually move?
The Cleveland Indians have surged back into the playoff picture and trimmed their deficit in the AL Central to three games. Trading Trevor Bauer would be a financially driven decision since his salary could approach $20 million next season in his final year of arbitration. With Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco both watching from the sidelines, he would be tough to replace.
The Detroit Tigers are said to be looking for an "established young MLB star" in any trade that involves Matthew Boyd, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, who adds that he doesn't think they'll get one. The July 2017 deal that sent Jose Quintana to the Cubs for a four-prospect package headlined by Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease has also been referenced in trade talks, per Jason Beck of MLB.com.
The asking price here is just too high, especially for a breakout performer with a limited track record.
It's probably 50-50 that the Texas Rangers flip ace Mike Minor in the midst of his best season. With his team-friendly $9.8 million salary for next year, it could boil down to whether the front office thinks the club can contend in 2020.
Rental starter Zack Wheeler seemed like a lock to be traded before a shoulder impingement landed him on the injured list. He's scheduled to return to the mound on Friday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post, which will be his lone start before the July 31 trade deadline.
If he can't prove he's 100 percent or close to it in that game, a qualifying offer this offseason could be the better move for the Mets.
Deal: Marcus Stroman Traded to the San Diego Padres
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Aside from doubling down on predictions regarding a handful of players who will stay put, this was the only carryover forecast from when I authored "Deal or No Deal: MLB Trade Predictions 1 Month from the 2019 Deadline" on June 27.
Here's what I wrote:
"Last summer, the Pittsburgh Pirates pulled off a surprise deal to acquire Chris Archer from the Tampa Bay Rays despite sitting six games back in third place in the NL Central.
While they were on a nice roll at the time and had an outside shot at a wild-card spot, the trade was largely made with the following season in mind. A similar approach by the San Diego Padres this summer to bolster the starting rotation for 2019 and 2020 makes a lot of sense.
The Toronto Blue Jays discussed a Marcus Stroman trade with the Padres during the offseason, according to Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com, and they could revisit it this summer."
There will be plenty of teams after Stroman in the next week. None of them have the prospect firepower that the Padres do with the No. 1 farm system in baseball at their disposal.
San Diego general manager A.J. Preller may just get aggressive with that firepower.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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