UFC 239 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for Jones vs. Santos
As is tradition, the UFC loaded up their Fourth of July weekend card. UFC 239 features back-to-back title fights featuring Jon Jones and Amanda Nunes to close out the show.
Jon Jones takes on an interesting challenger in Thiago Santos. Jones will try to add Marreta to his list of victims in his second title defense of 2019 after picking up a unanimous decision win over Anthony Smith in March.
Holly Holm will challenge for Amanda Nunes' belt. Holm will look to recapture the magic of her shocking upset win over Ronda Rousey in 2015, while Nunes will be trying to add on to what has been the most impressive run in the history of women's MMA.
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The lead-in to the title fights figures to be feisty as well, including Ben Askren and Jorge Masvidal competing in an important matchup in the welterweight division.
UFC 239 Fight Card
Main Card (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET)
- Jon Jones (-750; Bet $750 to win $100) vs. Thiago Santos (+525; Bet $100 to win $525)
- Amanda Nunes (-410) vs. Holly Holm (+330)
- Jorge Masvidal (+180) vs. Ben Askren (-220)
- Luke Rockhold (-225) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+185)
- Diego Sanchez (+300) vs. Michael Chiesa (-360)
Prelims (ESPN at 8 p.m. ET)
- Arnold Allen (-325) vs. Gilbert Melendez (+265)
- Claudia Gadelha (-240) vs. Randa Markos (+200)
- Marlon Vera (-400) vs. Nohelin Hernandez (+325)
- Song Yadong (-210) vs. Alejandro Perez (+175)
Prelims (UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ at 6:15 p.m. ET)
- Edmen Shahbazyan (-650) vs. Jack Marshman (+475)
- Ismail Naurdiev (-550) vs. Chance Rencountre (+425)
- Julia Avila (-200) vs. Pannie Kianzad (+170)
Odds via MMABettingOdds.com
Biggest Questions and Predictions
Can Santos' Power Get Jones in Trouble?
Thiago Santos is far from the most recognizable opponent Jon Jones has fought, but he is one of the more unique challenges he's seen.
Coming up from the middleweight division, Santos is an athletically gifted power puncher who may have the best kicking game that Jones has seen. The way he brutalizes opponents' legs with kicks to set up his power punching makes him a tough out for anyone.
That's likely where Santos' best opportunity lies. Jones loves to control the distance, utilizing his 84" reach and an array of leg kicks and jabs to pick foes apart. If Santos can land his leg kicks at that range and force Jones to transition to the clinch more often, he just might time him up and land the punches that have turned him into a knockout artist.
But Jones has proved to be durable. He's taken clean shots from Alexander Gustafsson, Daniel Cormier and Lyoto Machida, yet he's very rarely showed signs of being fazed.
The intrigue of this fight is built around the concept that Santos has the power advantage in a brawl, but even then it doesn't guarantee an upset.
Jones' chin and distance management mean he isn't going to face a serious threat until he moves up to heavyweight.
Prediction: Jones via fourth-round TKO
Can Holm Outpoint Nunes?
Holly Holm is famous for scoring one of the most stunning knockouts in MMA history when she head-kicked Ronda Rousey into oblivion. But that isn't a true indication of Holm's style.
She's only had one other knockout win in the Octagon, and her professional boxing career only featured nine knockouts in 33 wins. At heart, she's an excellent stick-and-move fighter with a good jab, body kicks and movement to consistently outpoint fighters.
That approach is a dangerous proposition against Nunes, though. The Lioness is an aggressive striker who wants to drown her opponents in volume.
If Holm is effective in taking good angles and sticking Nunes on the end of her jab, she could play the long game and eventually test the champion's cardio.
That's a big if, though. With Nunes' power, Holm won't have to get caught many times before the fight is effectively over.
Holm might be better off to go with a more grappling-heavy approach like she did in neutralizing Megan Anderson last time out, but that would be against her natural inclinations.
For Holm to win, it's going to require a high-wire balancing act that is hard to bet on, considering her 2-4 record since her historic win over Rousey.
Prediction: Nunes via second-round TKO
Can Askren Maintain His Unbeaten Streak?
Twenty opponents have tried to beat Ben Askren in his career. Twenty opponents have failed.
Funky is not the most fan-friendly fighter, but he is an effective one. He's a bit of a one-trick pony with his heavy reliance on the ground game, but his one trick is elite.
Askren's suffocating top game has proved too much for every opponent before him, and while this fight has a lot of hype behind it, the analysis seems pretty cut and dry: Masvidal's takedown defense will tell be the key.
He has been the master of losing split decisions. He's been on the wrong side of one four times in the last four years. Historically, if an opponent wants to get Masvidal down, they are able to do it. Demian Maia took him down four times, Benson Henderson did it on three occasions. Even Rustam Khabilov managed it twice.
All three of those fights were losses for Masvidal, and if he doesn't find a way to keep this thing on the feet, it's going to be another defeat on his record.
Prediction: Askren via decision
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