2019 NBA Draft: Long Shots Who Could Sneak into the Lottery
All it takes is one team for an NBA prospect to go earlier than expected.
Last year, it was Jerome Robinson who made a late push up boards. A lottery team is bound to make a surprising selection again. So we pegged the most likely prospects capable of defying the projections.
These five candidates either offer some level of certainty or enticing upside, and they'll have the chance to strengthen their draft cases during workouts.
Tyler Herro (Kentucky, SG, Freshman)
1 of 5
Big board ranking: No. 21
Tyler Herro will use workouts to convince teams they shouldn't look deeply into his relatively pedestrian 35.5 percent three-point clip at Kentucky.
His 93.5 percent free-throw clip is the more telling stat. The eye test detects a great shooter with picturesque mechanics and balance rising off spot-ups, screens, transition and pull-ups. Measuring 6'6" in sneakers at the combine should have only strengthened his case, making it easier to picture him getting clean looks in the pros.
Even if he never builds on the flashes of pick-and-roll ball-handling or playmaking, interested suitors will see value in adding an immediate shot-maker, especially after seeing how Landry Shamet has contributed right away and been optimized alongside NBA teammates.
And in this particular draft, there won't be any can't-miss prospects in the Nos. 8-14 range. There is a level of certainty tied to Herro's mix of size, technique and coveted skill. And certain teams could value it versus the unknown in drafting a lower-floor, higher-ceiling prospect.
The Atlanta Hawks, Minnesota Timberwolves, Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat each pick late in the lottery and ranked in the bottom half of the league in three-point percentage.
Goga Bitadze (Georgia, C, 1999)
2 of 5
Big board ranking: No. 8
After producing big numbers in the Adriatic and Serbian Leagues and winning the Euroleague Rising Star award, Goga Bitadze built a clear first-round case. He's now in the U.S. preparing for the draft, and this is where he can jump further up certain boards.
Bitadze had his pro day in New York on Thursday, the start of an important workout tour.
I have him ranked higher than most scouts, but he'll have a great opportunity to move the needle in front of executives who didn't book long trips to Europe during the season. His mobility, bounce and improved shooting should pop. That latter skill could be the one to help Bitadze leapfrog others in the Nos. 10-14 range. He finished the year hitting a combined 30 of 76 three-pointers. His form and fluidity are convincing, especially for a 19-year-old.
Bitadze, who averaged 19.8 points on 7-of-16 shooting from three through five Serbian KLS games this month, could become an option for the Atlanta Hawks, who have two lottery picks, the Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets, teams that need a center, or the Boston Celtics, who'll be focused on the best long-term prospect.
Bruno Fernando (Maryland, C, Sophomore)
3 of 5
Big board ranking: No. 35
Some teams may not even have Bruno Fernando ranked as a first-round prospect. There could be one, however, who sees another version of Montrezl Harrell.
Listed at 6'10 ¼", 237 pounds with 5.4 percent body fat, a 7'3 ¼" wingspan and 9'2" standing reach, Fernando has a long, chiseled physical profile. He used it to shoot 74.3 percent (98th percentile) around the basket, rank in the 92nd percentile in offensive putbacks, the 89th percentile off cuts and grab 20.2 percent of the available rebounds.
Given his tremendous body, mean streak and success at Maryland, it's possible a team feels confident in Fernando's effectiveness in the paint carrying over.
He could tip the scales further in his favor during workouts. Fernando didn't have the green light to shoot many jumpers in college, but he flashed promise when he did, making 11 of 25 attempts in the half court and 77.9 percent of his free throws.
Fernando also improved his reads this year as a passer and defender.
Just as the Miami Heat did with Bam Adebayo—another interior-oriented power big who went in the lottery—it's possible a team overlooks modern NBA values (shooting, playmaking) for the certainty of adding a physical paint presence with defensive upside.
.png?w=256)
KZ Okpala (Stanford, SF, Sophomore)
4 of 5
Big board ranking: No. 37
KZ Okpala's draft range appears wide. He won't be for everyone. He can slide into the 20s or 30s without any bankable skill. But it wouldn't be surprising if a lottery team detected upside, bought into his upward-trending development and figured the reward could be worth the risk.
His shooting is a major swing skill, and he'll have workouts to ease concerns or even create optimism about his jump shot. Okpala went from seven threes as a freshman to 32 as a sophomore, so he's moving in the right direction.
On watch lists to start the year for his 6'9 ½" size and 7'1 ¾" wingspan—terrific wing measurements—his positional tools and face-up offense always pointed to mismatch potential. He took a notable step forward toward reaching it this year, raising his scoring average to 16.8 points from 10.0.
He's also still closer to raw than polished, which can be a turnoff to some or a reason to bet on his upside for optimistic gamblers.
Mfiondu Kabengele (Florida State, C, Sophomore)
5 of 5
Big board ranking: No. 23
The idea of Mfiondu Kabengele being a first-round pick gained steam following the NCAA tournament, when he averaged 17.0 points and 8.0 rebounds through three games.
His measurements then stood out at the combine: 6'10 ¼", 7'3" wingspan, 256.2 pounds, 5.1 percent body fat. Built similarly to Wendell Carter Jr., Kabengele also hit 24 of 65 three-pointers and 76.1 percent of his free throws.
Teams could be drawn to his physical presence and effectiveness around the basket, where he ranked in the 85th percentile or better in finishing, putbacks and rolls. They can feel confident in his inside work carrying over.
The potential to also stretch the floor and make speciality shots like fallaways from the post points to a higher ceiling worth thinking about in the Nos. 10-14 range.
Despite never starting a game at Florida State—a reason he may have been overlooked—he's now a candidate to rise during workouts, when he can continue building a case with his shooting and budding offensive skill level.
Teams could see the ACC's Sixth Man of the Year providing that same spark of offense and energy off their bench.
Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports and Sports Reference.
.png?w=480)
