Declined 5th-Year Options Could Leave Host of Former Top NFL Talents Available

A glut of once-highly regarded talent could be on the move after multiple teams turned down fifth-year options on rookie contracts from the 2016 NFL draft. 

NFL organizations like control, and first-round assets are significant investments that franchises don't take lightly.  The ability to keep young players on the roster at a discount price during their prime years is crucial to long-term team building. 

The league's current contract structure favors the organizations, especially early in a player's career, but circumstances don't always align. While a trigger is included in every first-round rookie contract, an individual's lack of development makes teams question the correct path. 

Sometimes a team wants to retain its player, but the front office can't rationalize the projected salary based on performance. The Oakland Raiders found themselves in this situation with safety Karl Joseph. 

"That's a big story for some people," head coach Jon Gruden said of the decision not to pick up Joseph's fifth-year option, per the San Francisco Chronicle's Matt Kawahara. "But that does not mean that we don't want Karl with us this year and in the future."

Based on the current collective bargaining agreement, each first-round rookie deal includes a fifth-year team option. How much the option costs differs. 

For top-10 picks, the fifth-year option is equal to the salary of the league's transition tender during the player's fourth season. The number is based on the 10 highest salaries at the player's respective position during the previous season. Beyond the initial 10 selections, the fifth-year option is the average of the third- to 25th-highest-paid players at the same position. 

For example, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff, whom the organization selected No. 1 overall, will make $22.78 million after the team picked up his fifth-year option, according to Spotrac. 

The Miami Dolphins' Laremy Tunsil and Detroit Lions' Taylor Decker had their options picked up as well. As left tackles selected from pick Nos. 11 to 32, both will earn $10.35 million next season. 

Injury protection is the only guarantee included, and teams had to make a decision on the 2016 class by Friday. 

Teams declined a surprising number of options, which makes the players in question free agents in 2020.

Joseph is one of 12 2016 first-round picks who will enter make-or-break campaigns on the last year of their rookie deals (not including wide receiver Corey Coleman and quarterback Paxton Lynch after their original teams rid themselves of both).

Three scenarios could develop after an organization bypasses a player's fifth-year option. 

Continue Down the Path

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Gruden said one thing publicly; the organization seemingly plans to do another. The Raiders shopped Joseph last season, according to CBSSports.com's Jason La Canfora. A new general manager in Mike Mayock might provide Joseph with a blank slate. But the Raiders' decisions to sign safety Lamarcus Joyner and select Johnathan Abram with the 27th overall pick make Joseph expendable. 

The Tennessee Titans declined right tackle Jack Conklin's option, which was logical. Both parties may attempt to work out a long-term agreement—albeit not at the option's premium value. 

As 2016's No. 8 pick, Conklin warranted $12.86 million in his fifth year. After an All-Pro rookie campaign, the right tackle's play quality decreased, according to Pro Football Focus. If Conklin experiences a turnaround and stays healthy for the entire season after he suffered two knee injuries last year, an extension would make sense. 

A similar case can be made for the Seattle Seahawks to keep Germain Ifedi. The final first-round pick in the 2016 draft found a home at right tackle last season under the direction of offensive line coach Mike Solari. 

"We love Germain. He's grown with us," Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said, per Pro Football Talk's Curtis Crabtree. "He's become a solid football player and done a great job, started a ton of games for us and hanging in there and being tough about it. We'd love to have him. This is not an indication of anything. We like the guy and hope he'll be with us for a long time."

Conklin and Ifedi don't represent the norm, though. More often than not, organizations will try to recoup something for a former top talent instead of letting them walk in free agency. 

Trade Bait

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

Some movement will occur because organizations and coaching staffs always believe they can get the most out of a player, even if he's failed elsewhere. Case in point: Two teams already signed Coleman after the Browns traded the 2016 15th overall pick to the Buffalo Bills in August—he lasted less than a month there. 

Future late-round picks are often enough to strike a deal. After all, something in return is always better than nothing. 

Darron Lee is a speedy sideline-to-sideline linebacker, but the New York Jets are ready to move on from the 24-year-old defender. According to the New York Post's Brian Costello, the Jets "would love" to trade Lee, but other teams aren't willing to offer much since the linebacker may be cut. 

"Darron's played and done some good things for us," general manager Mike Maccagnan said. "We'll see how this unfolds going forward."

Translation: Lee is as good as gone. 

A pair of defensive linemen, the Arizona Cardinals' Robert Nkemdiche and Carolina Panthers' Vernon Butler, are physically gifted but haven't taken advantage of opportunities. Butler became a healthy scratch for a few games last year. Nkemdiche never once looked like the former No. 1 overall high school recruit when he got to the NFL or even came close to realizing his immense potential. 

"If Nkemdiche is known for anything, it's clearly not for his love or commitment to football," Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic wrote. 

Ouch. 

Potential is tantalizing, though. Thinking that a new setting with different coaches and schemes will jump-start a player's career is common. 

For San Francisco guard Josh Garnett and Washington Redskins wide receiver Josh Doctson, a change of venue is necessary. Garrett entered the league as a powerful man-gap blocker, but he's now stuck in Kyle Shanahan's zone-heavy approach. An Achilles injury slowed the start of Doctson's career, and he hasn't found a way to become an integral part of Washington's offense. 

A combination of wishful thinking and realism play a role when it comes to moving those who reside on the verge of draft bust-dom. 

Moving On

Bruce Kluckhohn/Associated Press

A few haven't shown enough to warrant trade interest from other teams. 

The New Orleans Saints were never going to pick up Eli Apple's fifth-year option at $13.7 million. Defensive lineman Sheldon Rankins became the priority. Apple may eventually return to New Orleans under the right circumstances, but the team will have other things to address with next year's $50.8 million in projected salary-cap space. The organization will begin with re-signing Drew Brees or acquiring another starting quarterback. The position will demand nearly half the available space. 

Apple didn't play poorly in the Big Easy, but the Saints can find a comparable alternative at a lesser price. 

At least the draft class' 10th overall pick still has potential. The Buffalo Bills' Shaq Lawson, Pittsburgh Steelers' Artie Burns and Minnesota Vikings' Laquon Treadwell haven't done anything to warrant confidence in a potential resurrection. Lawson managed 10 sacks in three years. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin benched Burns. Treadwell, meanwhile, has caught 56 passes for 517 yards since he entered the league. 

Someone will always take a chance on talent, but these four don't present the same upside as the others mentioned. 

Another Chance

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Fifth-year options serve as a catalyst for movement, since no NFL roster is complete.

"I think we've done some good things in terms of improving the talent at certain positions," Maccagnan said of the Jets, per Costello. "I think you're never truly done. I don't think people realize it's not as if you finish the draft and that's the last time you spend looking at the roster."

General managers are far more willing to invest in someone they previously held in high regard than a typical street free agent.

Last year, the Cleveland Browns struck gold by signing left tackle Greg Robinson and wide receiver Breshad Perriman. Robinson, whom the Los Angeles Rams originally selected second overall in the 2014 draft, re-signed in Cleveland this offseason to man the Browns' blind side. The Baltimore Ravens selected Perriman with the 26th pick in the 2015 draft. He turned a successful season in Cleveland into a one-year, $4 million deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

It doesn't signal the end if a player's fifth-year option isn't picked up. The decision becomes an opportunity for another franchise to invest in the individual's untapped potential. 

Brent Sobleski covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @brentsobleski. Salary-cap info courtesy of Spotrac. Recruit rankings via 247Sports.