Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Dustin Poirier: Early Head-to-Toe Breakdown
The official fight agreement has yet to be signed, but all signs point to the UFC lightweight championship unification bout to take place this September in Abu Dhabi. Per ESPN.com's Brett Okamoto, UFC 242 will take place on September 7 in Abu Dhabi, with the lightweight title tilt expected to headline.
Khabib Nurmagomedov, the reigning undisputed champion, will unify the belt with newly minted interim champ Dustin Poirier.
Nurmagomedov has dominated throughout his career, but can Poirier continue his hot streak and shock the world?
It is a tall order, but Poirier brings in a well-rounded attack. Nurmagomedov has been impressive, but he has shown himself to be human from time to time. It makes the lightweight title bout intriguing and not a foregone conclusion that Nurmagomedov walks away with another victory.
Can Poirier pull it off? Will it be another dominant showing from Nurmagomedov?
Let's break down the action from head to toe, seeing where each fighter holds the edge, before totaling the results to make a prediction. This is your early Nurmagomedov-Poirier breakdown ahead of UFC 242.
Striking
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Nurmagomedov has taken great strides with his stand-up over the years, and he even clipped Conor McGregor when they met last year. He is dangerous on the feet, but the totality of his striking still does not meet the standard of Poirier.
Poirier is more polished.
The American's overall striking game is complete. Punches, kicks, knees, elbows—every facet of his striking is dangerous and has the opportunity to end a fight. During his four-fight win streak, he has taken out some of the sport's best strikers: Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez and Max Holloway.
The level of competition Poirier has dispatched by bettering them at their own game speaks volumes about his own skills.
If Poirier can draw Nurmagomedov into a stand-up war, he could upend the reigning king in shocking fashion.
Edge: Poirier
Grappling
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No shock here. Nurmagomedov has the decided edge in the grappling department.
Nurmagomedov is without question one of the best pure wrestlers in the sport, but what makes his style so fun to watch is how he strings everything together. Nurmagomedov does not run through a double-leg or have an immaculate single. No, Nurmagomedov has the ability to switch continuously to find the easiest path to the floor.
That is what separates him from the pack.
The transitions between takedown styles make it near-impossible to stop. You defend one technique, Nurmagomedov is already to his second or third. Eventually, he puts you on your back.
Once there, Nurmagomedov's top pressure is next to none.
Poirier's got solid wrestling and decent defense. Per UFCStats.com, Poirier defends 69 percent of takedowns. He won't have to defend each and every takedown. But if he can stop a few and force some exchanges on the feet, then he will open the window of opportunity to take rounds or finish the fight.
Edge: Nurmagomedov
Submissions
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Determining who has the edge with submissions can be tricky. While one fighter may have the overall edge in a variety of finishing techniques, another may be more apt to be in a position to finish the fight. That is what we are dealing with in this instance.
Poirier has more submissions in his bag than Nurmagomedov. He has a slick triangle, solid armbar and various chokes. However, Nurmagomedov will be in a better position to finish with a submission, as he is more likely to be in a dominant position on the mat.
Nurmagomedov has brutal chokes and a decent Kimura, but I will still give the edge to Poirier.
If Poirier was only able to use top position to find submissions, then I would go with Nurmagomedov, but Poirier is able to submit opponents off his back. While unlikely that Nurmagomedov gives him space to utilize a triangle, Poirier still has more options than his counterpart.
Poirier's depth of tricks gives him the edge.
Edge: Poirier
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X-Factors
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Nurmagomedov's X-Factor: Cutting off the Cage
This is something Nurmagomedov is good at doing, but it will still be crucial when the two meet later this year.
Poirier has good movement and is quick. He will make it a point not to be stuck against the fence against Nurmagomedov. As such, Nurmagomedov will have to cut off the cage against Poirier. If he can make the cage smaller, he can complete more takedowns.
Nurmagomedov can't let Poirier off the hook and get back to the center of the Octagon.
Poirier's X-Factor: Surprise Nurmagomedov
In the first meeting between Alexander Gustafsson and Jon Jones, one of the key elements to Gustafsson equaling Jones was surprising him with takedown attempts. It made Jones think and become a bit more reactionary.
Can Poirier do the same?
Poirier doesn't have to become a wrestler or even complete a takedown. But he has to make Nurmagomedov think about the full realm of his abilities. If Poirier can even make one takedown entry come a split-second later than normal, he can defend it.
It is the small details that make champions. Poirier needs every advantage he can get, and if he can surprise Nurmagomedov with something he didn't expect he can walk out the undisputed champion.
Prediction
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I am not writing Dustin Poirier off. He is extremely talented, has all the tools to win and could pull off the upset. I just don't see it happening.
Nurmagomedov is too good.
Poirier will find himself on the canvas early and often. He will be able to get back to his feet, but he will be right back on the mat in short order. Nurmagomedov will take him down over and over... and over. Poirier's energy will slowly drain away.
Once the fight hits the championship rounds, Poirier won't have the energy to get back up. The pressure from Nurmagomedov will be too much, and the ground-and-pound will start to have damaging effects. That is when the referee will be forced to step in and stop the bout.
Poirier will be a quality opponent to offer some resistance, but he won't win a single round and will not do any significant damage. Nurmagomedov dominates and awaits his next victim.
Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov def. Dustin Poirier by TKO in the fourth round
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