2019 NFL Draft: Stock Up, Stock Down Heading into April
NFL prospects shouldn't pay attention to mock drafts. They'll notice their stocks rise and fall multiple times before teams step to the podium late April.
With that said, they should pay attention to trends and acquisitions during free agency. While it's easy to match an incoming rookie's position and strengths with a team need, a veteran addition can throw everyone off track. Will team brass address the roster hole twice or stick with the experienced player alone?
Even if prospects look impressive at the NFL Scouting Combine and pro days and during private workouts, their draft stock will continue to fluctuate based on how front offices fill voids on the depth chart.
If a team loses multiple pass-rushers on the open market, incoming players at the position would likely see a rise in projection. Conversely, a general manager's decision to sign a quarterback potentially pushes a rookie signal-caller back several spots in the draft.
Following free agency, the eight prospects below have taken a hit or a bump in their potential draft placement.
Stock Up: DL Rashan Gary, Michigan
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Despite the wide-ranging opinions on Rashan Gary's draft projection, it's safe to say he's a riser. At 6'4", 277 pounds, with the physical tendencies to overpower offensive linemen in spurts, he can line up on the strong side of a four-man front or shift to the interior in sub-packages.
Because of Gary's potential in a pass-rushing role, the Oakland Raiders may take a look at him at No. 4 overall if Nick Bosa, Josh Allen and Quinnen Williams come off the board with the top three picks. The Michigan product met with general manager Mike Mayock and head coach Jon Gruden at the combine; he also talked about a reunion with former teammate Maurice Hurst, per NBC Sports Bay Area's Scott Bair.
"Man, if I had the opportunity to be a Raider, I love it," Gary said. "I miss my man Mo. I would love playing with him again. If I get the opportunity to, that would be good."
Gary should draw interest from other teams with a top-10 pick. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense will use 3-4 looks under new coordinator Todd Bowles. The Detroit Lions use varied defensive fronts under head coach Matt Patricia. The former Wolverine could line up on the inside or move outside to bookend Trey Flowers in some formations.
The Michigan standout didn't consistently dominate games, but teams will take his high ceiling into account. The needs of teams atop the draft order put Gary in top-10 consideration.
Stock Down: QB Daniel Jones, Duke
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In January, Daniel Jones had first-round buzz. Following free agency, that may change because clubs either addressed the quarterback position or added a potential heir to the starter.
The Jacksonville Jaguars inked Nick Foles to a four-year, $88 million pact. The New Orleans Saints re-signed Teddy Bridgewater to a one-year deal. Jones could still land with the New York Giants, Washington Redskins or Miami Dolphins, who have a placeholder in Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.
When a team acquires a veteran signal-caller, it doesn't mean it'll pass on a rookie, but it allows the front office options in the early rounds. Unless a general manager falls hard for Jones, he won't be pressed to take him on Day 1.
The Duke quarterback averaged just 6.4 yards per pass attempt with 52 touchdowns, 29 interceptions and a 59.9 percent completion percentage in three collegiate seasons. He doesn't have the production that screams top-32 pick.
In terms of draft placement, Jones would've benefited from more teams going into April with a dire need at quarterback. Most teams have a functional starter, which takes away the urge to reach for a second-round talent on Day 1.
Stock Up: WR A.J. Brown, Mississippi
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A.J. Brown's teammate D.K. Metcalf grabbed combine headlines with eye-popping test numbers, but Mississippi's lead wide receiver over the last two years should land within the top 20.
The free-agent market didn't feature any No. 1-type wide receivers in their primes. The Giants signed Golden Tate to fill Odell Beckham Jr.'s void, but he's going into his age-31 season. Typically, the veteran has served as a high-end No. 2 option. Based on annual payout, the Raiders signed Tyrell Williams to the richest salary among 2019 free-agent wideouts at approximately $11.1 million.
Tate and Williams may have solid years with their new teams, but neither fits the bill as a top-shelf wide receiver. At 6'0", 226 pounds, Brown has the size, route-running ability and collegiate production that suggests he could become a special playmaker on the professional level.
The Green Bay Packers (12th), Dolphins (13th), Carolina Panthers (16th), Giants (17th) and Pittsburgh Steelers (20th) all have a slight-to-moderate need at wide receiver—especially for their three-wideout sets. Free agency probably left teams hungry for more talent at the position.
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Stock Down: S Deionte Thompson, Alabama
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Last year, three clubs chose a safety in the first round—that's with a depreciated free-agent market for players at the position. Kurt Coleman signed a three-year, $16.4 million contract—the biggest deal among safeties during the 2018 offseason.
In March, teams tossed huge figures at top safeties on the open market; six players signed deals that will pay at least $9 million annually. As a result, we could see top safety prospects linger around the draft pool longer than they did last year.
Last April, Minkah Fitzpatrick, a versatile playmaker who won the 2017 Chuck Bednarik Award, went 11th to the Dolphins; Derwin James fell to the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 17. Deionte Thompson isn't comparable to either of the two 2018 first-rounders.
In addition to the lucrative safety market, Thompson underwent wrist surgery in February, and he's on the mend. Perhaps teams took note and decided to invest in veterans at the position with knowledge one of the top prospects underwent a significant procedure.
Once considered a first-round pick, Thompson may slide to mid-second-round territory.
Stock Up: EDGE Joe Jackson, Miami
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Joe Jackson's draft stock is on the rise because teams need strong-side defensive ends. Within the same division, the Kansas City Chiefs and Raiders should have eyes on pass-rushers in the second and third rounds.
The Chiefs flipped their personnel on the defensive line, specifically on the ends. The front office traded edge-rusher Dee Ford to the San Francisco 49ers for a 2020 second-round pick and released Justin Houston; he later signed with the Indianapolis Colts. The two pass-rushers combined for 22 sacks last year.
New defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will work with the talent on the roster, but it's likely that the front office will add a prototypical defensive end for his four-man front. The Chiefs signed Alex Okafor, but he hasn't eclipsed five sacks since the 2014 campaign with the Arizona Cardinals.
Kansas City owns pick Nos. 61 and 63; general manager Brett Veach may opt to take a defensive end with one of those selections.
Oakland only has two defensive ends on the roster, Arden Key and Josh Mauro, but the latter isn't much of a pass-rusher (three sacks in five years). Even if the Raiders land a prospect at the position with the fourth overall pick, they should take another DE to address a major need.
Stock Down: OC Erik McCoy, Texas A&M
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Typically, centers don't garner much attention in terms of acquisitions. This year, Mitch Morse became the highest-paid player at the position on a four-year, $44.5 million deal with the Buffalo Bills. Matt Paradis inked a three-year, $29 million pact with the Panthers; he'll replace Ryan Kalil at the pivot. Nick Easton joined the Saints to replace Max Unger, who retired.
In today's league, an increasing number of centers can also adequately play in one or both of the guard spots. The versatility leaves little room for pure centers with a lack of experience at other positions.
Erik McCoy had only two collegiate starts at guard, per NFL.com's Lance Zierlein. He's going to face stiff competition from Garrett Bradbury, who's experienced at multiple positions on the interior of the offensive line.
The Texas A&M product may have been a target for the Bills or Panthers, but they've already invested in two of the five highest-paid centers in the league. McCoy's lack of proven versatility and the free-agent movement hurt his draft stock.
Stock Up: RB Josh Jacobs, Alabama
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Business isn't booming for running backs—unless you're Le'Veon Bell. He agreed to a four-year, $52.5 million deal with the New York Jets. The Baltimore Ravens acquired Mark Ingram with a three-year, $15 million contract—the second-highest-paid tailback on the market.
The 49ers inked running back Tevin Coleman on a two-year, $8.5 million deal; the Chiefs signed Carlos Hyde for a year worth $2.8 million. Clubs chose not to spend big dollars on the position. And why should they? Top-10 rushers Chris Carson and Phillip Lindsay came into the league with minimal salaries as a seventh-rounder and undrafted free agent, respectively.
We could also look at running-back production in another fashion. Five of the top 10 rushers in 2018 are former first-round picks. Since 2015, at least one tailback has been selected on Day 1 of every draft.
Many draft analysts, including Bleacher Report's Matt Miller and The Athletic's Dane Brugler, list Josh Jacobs as the No. 1 running back in this class. He's the do-it-all back who can run, catch and protect the passer in the backfield.
Based on the modest investments at the position, teams may opt to take the No. 1 prospect at running back on a potential five-year deal (option included). The approach would keep a high-level talent on the books for a manageable wage and also prevent a team from doing the alternative—throwing money at a veteran with collegiate and pro mileage on his legs.
Stock Down: DL Dexter Lawrence, Clemson
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Despite a quadriceps injury that abruptly ended his combine performance, defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence could've crept into the first round.
However, teams that may have targeted him on Day 1 filled their interior holes. The Philadelphia Eagles signed Malik Jackson. The Cleveland Browns acquired Sheldon Richardson and traded their No. 17 overall pick to the Giants in the Beckham deal. Los Angeles re-signed Brandon Mebane; now it will likely go with an offensive tackle.
There's a slight division between nose tackles and defensive tackles. The former usually serves as the gap-stuffer with a strong push against the run while the latter attempts to apply pocket pressure in four-man fronts. At 6'4", 342 pounds, Lawrence could fill either role; he recorded 6.5 sacks as a freshman.
Then again, Lawrence hasn't been a factor in the pass rush since the 2016 term, logging 3.5 sacks over the last two seasons. The Clemson product may have a low ceiling as a pocket-pusher. ESPN.com's Todd McShay thinks he'll be a Day 1 pick (to the Chargers), but the free-agent acquisitions and trade moves may push him into Day 2.
Player contract details provided by Spotrac.com.
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