March Madness Bracket 2019: Upset Predictions and Updated Odds

Brackets, prepare to get busted.

Nothing sends a sheet full of carefully plotted picks to the recycle bin faster than a David slaying a Goliath. The key is to see those upsets before they happen.

So, before the first round of the 2019 NCAA men's basketball tournament tips on Thursday, let's dive into a couple of teams seeded 11th or lower with the best upset chances in Round 1.

2019 NCAA Bracket

Upset Predictions and Updated Odds

No. 11 Saint Mary's (+5) over No. 6 Villanova

By controlling pace of play and limiting turnovers, Saint Mary's almost eliminates the chances of a blowout. It's the same formula the Gaels followed in last week's upset of then-No. 1 Gonzaga, as they committed just 11 giveaways en route to a 60-47 victory.

If the Gaels can put the clamps on the Wildcats' 16th-ranked offense, per KenPom.com, they have the shooters to turn the tide in their favor.

Scoring leader Jordan Ford (21.3 points per game) averages 2.1 threes while hitting at a 42.3-percent clip from distance. Malik Fitts and Tanner Krebs, the second and third options, aren't too far behind with 3.2 combined triples per game and 40-plus-percent conversion rates.

Saint Mary's primary weakness on offense is a lack of ball movement. No one averages even three assists per contest. But Villanova isn't great on defense (73rd), so coach Jay Wright's Wildcats may not be able to exploit that advantage.

In 2010, the then-10th-seeded Gaels stunned the second-seeded Wildcats in the second round. If history repeats itself, there won't be nearly as many eyebrows raised this time around.

No. 12 Murray State (+4) over No. 5 Marquette

You know what's a pretty good way to increase your upset chances? By having an elite NBA prospect on your roster; it's unclear why more mid-majors haven't tried this.

A lot of this prediction is rightfully tied to star Racers sophomore Ja Morant, who should be one of the first players selected in the Association's talent grab this June. The do-it-all floor general literally does it all, averaging 10.0 assists (best in the country), 24.6 points (eighth), 5.5 rebounds (for a 6'3" point guard) and 1.8 steals per game.

After enduring a 38-point, nine-board, five-dime masterpiece from Morant, Alabama coach and former NBA champion Avery Johnson could barely believe what he'd witnessed.

"I saw flashbacks of a lot of guys I played against," Johnson said, per NBA.com's Chris Dortch. "Whether it's the old Isaiah Thomas ... that craftiness and cleverness. John Stockton's passing ability. Russell Westbrook's athletic ability. My God. When I saw him on film ... to watch him play in person ... it was better than on film."

Morant's production and potential give Murray State a chance against almost anyone. In this matchup, though, he's helped by the fact the Racers hold teams to just 28.2 percent three-point shooting (fourth-best in the country), which will come in handy against the Golden Eagles and their own star guard Markus Howard, who does his best work from distance.

No. 13 UC Irvine (+5) over No. 4 Kansas State

Credit coach Bruce Weber's Wildcats for finally breaking Kansas' stranglehold on the Big 12. But with second-leading scorer and top rebounder Dean Wade doubtful to play in the tournament, this isn't the same squad that captured a share of the conference's regular-season crown.

Already, Kansas State appeared prone to a possible upset for playing at tortoise speed. There just aren't many ways to run away from a team when you're sitting 342nd in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.

The trade-off for the Wildcats typically is that their fourth-ranked defense can cause havoc for opposing attacks and generate enough turnovers to create some easy scoring opportunities.

However, UC Irvine, which carries a 16-game winning streak into the Big Dance, relies on the backcourt combo of upperclassmen Max Hazzard and Robert Cartwright to limit giveaways.

Plus, the Anteaters have a good enough defense to cause problems for the Wildcats' 103rd-ranked offense.

"The matchup of Kansas State's offense with UC Irvine's defense could be a disaster for the Wildcats," Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller wrote. "The Anteaters thrive on forcing mid-range jumpers, and this is not a good shooting team."

In what seemed destined to be a nail-biter anyway, Wade's likely absence could spell K-State's early demise.

Odds used courtesy of OddsShark.