Liver's 2009 NFL Week 8 Picks

It’s a shame that Tim Donaghy’s book isn’t going to be published, but that shouldn’t stop you from seeking out leaked excerpts on the web.

I guess David Stern should be glad that, for now, the vast public won’t get to read about how NBA refs let personal vendettas against players, coaches and owners affect how they call games and how they deliberately give preference to teams that they perceive that the league wants to see win.

I said it before and I’ll say it again; the NBA refs have ruined, along with the constant tweaking of the rules, what once was the greatest game in America. Hope you’re enjoying yourself Stern because your league and its product are a joke.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 6-6-1

2009 record against the spread: 62-40-1 (.602)

Sunday, November 1

Cleveland at Chicago (-13 ½)
What the hell was that against Cincinnati? The Bears were dominated in every facet of the game and were never even remotely in it. Jay Cutler is a walking turnover right now and Matt Forte hasn’t had a decent game on the ground yet. That would be too many points to lay on them right now if it WASN’T Cleveland they were playing. Pick: Chicago

Seattle at Dallas (-9 ½)
The Cowboys had their first complete game of the season last week as they showed that they can beat a good team by knocking out the Falcons. The defense was hungry, Romo didn’t turn the ball over, and Miles Austin had his second-straight monster game. This is a game that they should win easily as they go up against an injury riddled Seahawks team that has been awful on the road. No Walter Jones means the newly minted $78 million DeMarcus Ware should run rampant in the Seahawks backfield and knock Matt Hasselbeck around. The Cowboys have shown, unfortunately, that they can be their own worst enemy with careless penalties. If the Cowboys can carry over their momentum, they can make quick work of Seattle. Pick: Dallas

Houston at Buffalo (+3 ½)
Houston has shown some signs of the team that many predicted would be a wild card team. If this is the year for them to make the postseason for the first time in team history, they have to beat a hapless Bills team on offense that will start Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB for the second straight week. The Bills have won two in a row but one of those was against an inept Jets team that gave the game away and the other was against a bad Carolina team that turns the ball over too much. With a win, the Texans would be 5-3 for the first time in team history. Pick: Houston

Denver at Baltimore (-3 ½)
Both teams come off a bye. Denver is the shock of the league right now at 6-0 and should be ready for a tough road test against a Ravens team that has lost three straight and is reeling. Amazingly the problem for the Ravens lately has been its defense not the offense. With Pittsburgh and Cincinnati battling it out for the AFC North title, the Ravens can’t afford a fourth straight loss or their wild card hopes could be in jeopardy. For some reason, I see the Broncos getting their first loss of the season here. Pick: Baltimore

Miami at N.Y. Jets (-3 ½)
The Jets had an easy win over Oakland last weekend to end its three-game skid and look to redeem themselves against Miami for their prior Monday night loss. The Dolphins could still have the loss against the Saints on their mind after they seemed to have the game in hand last Sunday. The wildcat gave the Jets fits earlier this year so this should be a test of whether Rex Ryan can adjust to their multiple formations. All he needs to do is look at how Gregg Williams attacked it in the second half of the Saints/Dolphins team. Not having Kris Jenkins will hurt the Jets though. Look for the Dolphins to try and blitz Mark Sanchez into fumbling the hot dog, I mean football. Pick: Miami

San Francisco at Indianapolis (-12)
Alex Smith showed something in the second half of the Texans game last weekend and nearly pulled off the comeback. He’s been rewarded by being named the starter for this game. The Colts are rolling right now and would need to completely overlook the 49’ers to lose this game. If Frank Gore can get going and expose the Colts’ Achilles heel, stopping the run, the 49’ers can hang around for a while. Vernon Davis has been a monster and look for the Colts to zero in on him and make him a non-factor. Pick: San Francisco

St. Louis at Detroit (off)
How’s this for a game between two powerhouses? St. Louis has lost 17 games in a row dating back to last season, and is 2-21 since the start of the 2008 season. The Lions lost all 16 games last season and are 1-21 since the start of 2008. That should be 2-21 for the Lions after this game IF they have Stafford and Johnson back after they’ve had a bye to get healthy. The line being off is due to their uncertain playing status although both are likely to play. Pick: Detroit

Minnesota at Green Bay (-3)
The Favre Bowl II is upon us. Maybe you didn’t know but Brett Favre is making his return to Lambeau Field in a Vikings jersey. The Vikings finally lost last week and it was a Favre interception that did them in. Packers and Jets fans know that feeling well. Favre threw the ball 51 times which means that they relied too heavily on the pass and not on a more balanced attack with the run. They need to get back to pounding the ball with Adrian Peterson. Aaron Rodgers had better prey that Jared Allen breaks a leg or he could be looking at another long day running for his life. The Packers went a whole game without giving up a sack last week. Of course, they were playing the Browns.  Pick: Green Bay

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (+1)
Neither team has looked great the last two weeks. The Giants have lost two in a row and Eli Manning’s play has been sloppy. The banged up pass defense has been gashed the last two games and DeSean Jackson could add to their miseries. Filthy beat the hapless Redskins Monday night but will need to play better against the Giants. Brian Westbrook might not play because of a concussion he suffered Monday night. Pick: New York

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-3)
So now Vince Young gets a start? When we last saw the Titans they had basically quit in New England to the tune of 59-0. They might have a chance to get a win against a Jacksonville team that relies heavily on the run. Tennessee’s pass defense might be the worst in the league but they have been good at stopping the run and Jacksonville isn’t what you’d call a team that likes to air it out. Pick: Tennessee

Oakland at San Diego (-16 ½)
That Monday night game between these two to open the season seems like a long time ago. That Oakland team actually looked like they might be able to win some games on defense. Meanwhile the San Diego team that we saw that night has stayed the same; great offense through the air, no running game and mediocre defense. San Diego had an easy time against Kansas City last week and should have no problem here despite their deficiencies. Still, that’s a lot to lay on the Chargers. Pick: Oakland

Carolina at Arizona (-10)
This could be a trap game for a Cardinals team that is riding high with a three-game win streak after a solid win over the Giants last Sunday night. With San Francisco going against the Colts this weekend, the Cardinals need to put some distance between the two teams in the always boring NFC West. Meanwhile, Jake Delhomme continues to start for the Panthers despite the fact that he throws picks coming off the bus. He needs to get Steve Smith involved early if the Panthers hope to be competitive in this game. Pick: Arizona

Monday, November 2

Atlanta at New Orleans (-10)
New Orleans can wrap up the NFC South with a win here. Their comeback against the Dolphins was nothing short of astounding and the one aspect (DEFENSE ) that they needed improvement on over the off-season has been their calling card this season. The Saints already have 72 points off turnovers this season and lead the NFL in takeaways. The Falcons need this game desperately after their loss against Dallas last week and that desperation could play into the hands of the Saints, who have looked unbeatable at home this season. If they can’t get their dormant running game going, which was their specialty last season; they don’t have a chance here. Is Michael Turner really the same guy who rushed for almost 1,700 yards last season? Pick: Atlanta