College Football Odds Week 14: Picks for Top 25 Matchups Based on Vegas Lines
Week 14 of the 2018 college football season offers a condensed but critical slate of games.
Conference championships are on the line, and playoff berths could change hands several times over based on how everything transpires. When five of the top six teams are in action, it's impossible to overstate the schedule's significance.
We'll spotlight three conference championships below, then provide predictions for each remaining game featuring a Top 25 team.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Big 12 Championship
No. 14 Texas vs. No. 5 Oklahoma (-8)
It's not quite a win-and-you're-in situation for coach Lincoln Riley's Sooners, but surviving this contest is the biggest step toward returning to the playoffs.
In other words, as Riley told reporters, his group can't afford to look forward. When asked what he'd say to the CFP committee, Riley said his focus doesn't extend past Saturday:
"Right now I'd ask them if they understand how difficult it is to beat Texas because that's all I'm worried about. I get it. I get it's going to be a conversation. It was the same thing last year. We knew that we had to win this game and most years, most teams are going to have to win their conference to get into the playoff. I know that's not a surprise to anybody. I want my team's focus right there, and if I'm going to do that then I've got to make sure mine is there as well."
Oklahoma won't overlook Texas, not after suffering its lone loss of the season to its Red River rivals in a 48-45 shootout on Oct. 6.
Had the Sooners simply not lost the turnover battle by a 3-0 margin in that contest, they might have an unblemished record right now. Oklahoma held decisive advantages in both yards per pass (11.5 to 8.8) and yards per rush (7.2 to 4.7).
Both defenses are leaky, but Sooners quarterback Kyler Murray—Tua Tagovailoa's biggest competition for the Heisman—is best equipped to take advantage.
Murray leads all qualified passers with 12.0 yards per attempt and ranks second in both touchdowns (37) and rating (206.8). In the end, he'll supply enough offense to both overcome his defense and cover the spread.
Prediction: Oklahoma 48, Texas 35
SEC Championship Game
No. 1 Alabama (-13.5) vs. No. 4 Georgia
Leave it to Alabama to draw the fourth-ranked team in the nation and still be a double-digit favorite. But clobber your first 12 opponents with a nearly unfathomable plus-423 point differential and that's what will happen.
The Crimson Tide seemingly have no discernible weaknesses. They average the second-most points in the FBS (49.0 per game) and surrender the third-fewest (13.8).
That said, their special teams leave something to be desired. Their kickers have misfired on eight extra points and five of their 18 field-goal attempts. They also rank 118th out of 129 teams in net punt yards (33).
So, are we saying there's a chance to see an upset? Not really. Just look at that point spread—there's a reason oddsmakers detect a sizable gap between these teams.
It's not that Georgia is lacking in any area, it's just that Alabama is overwhelmingly good in several.
Tagovailoa's numbers look like they belong in a video game: 3,189 yards on 70.3 percent passing with 36 touchdown throws against only two interceptions.
The top two running backs (Damien Harris and Najee Harris) average better than six yards per carry. Sophomore Jerry Jeudy has already surpassed the 1,000-yard mark and is one of five pass-catchers averaging more than 17 yards per grab and having scored five-plus touchdowns through the air.
Prediction: Alabama 38, Georgia 27
Big Ten Championship
No. 21 Northwestern vs. No. 6 Ohio State (-14)
These two teams could not be any more different.
The Buckeyes are a perennial powerhouse and an on-paper juggernaut. The Wildcats are making their initial appearance in this contest—a miraculous development for a side that lost three of its four games—and have never won more than 10 games in a season, a number Ohio State cleared this year and 10 of the previous 12.
They play different games, too.
When the Buckeyes are clicking, they perform aerial acrobatics on the strength of sophomore quarterback Dwayne Haskins—FBS' No. 2 player in passing yards (4,081)—and upperclassmen receivers Parris Campbell and K.J. Hill, who have tallied a combined 138 receptions for 1,726 yards and 17 touchdowns.
The Wildcats, meanwhile, look to control the pace and limit their opponents' possessions. They have yet to score 35 points this season, which isn't within a touchdown of the Buckeyes' average output of 43.3.
But Northwestern's bend-don't-break defense surrenders just 21.7 points per game (tied for 27th), and freshman running back Isaiah Bowser has emerged as a weapon with 100-plus yards in four of the last six games.
This likely hinges on which version of Ohio State shows up. Will it be the one that just dismantled Michigan 62-39 last weekend or the one that lost to Purdue and barely edged past Nebraska and Maryland?
Given that a win with style points could put the Buckeyes in the playoff picture, we're guessing they'll put their best foot forward and race past a Wildcats team lacking the playmakers to keep up.
Prediction: Ohio State 41, Northwestern 24
Remaining Top 25 Predictions
No. 2 Clemson (-27.5) 52, Pittsburgh 23
Memphis 35, No. 8 UCF (-3) 31
No. 11 Washington (-5.5) 27, No. 17 Utah 20
No. 22 Boise State (-2.5) 31, No. 25 Fresno State 21
No. 23 Iowa State (-42.5) 52, Drake 6
Odds used courtesy of OddsShark.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
