2018 Big 12 Championship Game: Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 27, 2018

Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger (11) during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Iowa State , Saturday, Nov. 17, 2018, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Eric Gay/Associated Press

With an upset victory in the Red River Shootout earlier this season the Texas Longhorns are now 3-3 straight up and 6-0 against the spread over the last six meetings with the rival Oklahoma Sooners. Texas is lined as an underdog again for Saturday afternoon's Big 12 championship bash against Oklahoma in Arlington, Texas.

College football point spread: The Sooners opened as six-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 44.5-35.6 Sooners (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Texas Longhorns can cover the spread

The Longhorns finished their regular season by winning their last three games, including a 24-17 decision over a game Kansas outfit last week. Texas drove its first possession of the game 98 yards to a touchdown but only led 7-0 at the half. The Longhorns then scored the first 14 points of the second half and held on from there.

On the day, Texas only produced 303 yards of total offense, but only allowed 296. And 57 of the Jayhawks' yards came on one play.

The Longhorns had the spread covered as 15-point favorites with a 24-7 lead late into the fourth quarter, but they gave up 10 points over the last three-and-a-half minutes.

Texas has now out-rushed each of its last three opponents, going 2-1 ATS in the process. Heading into Saturday's game the Longhorns are 11-3-1 ATS their last 15 times out as underdogs.


Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

The Sooners finished their regular season with six straight victories, including a wild 59-56 decision at West Virginia last week. Oklahoma spotted the Mountaineers the first seven points of the game, then scored touchdowns on four of its first five possessions and led 35-28 at the half. The Sooners later trailed 49-45 into the fourth quarter but scored twice in a two-minute span to re-take the lead. In the end, the Oklahoma offense ran the last four minutes off the clock, thanks to a game-clinching fourth-down conversion.

On the night, Oklahoma racked up 672 yards of total offense, 308 on the ground and 364 through the air. Meanwhile, the Sooners defense scored two touchdowns.

OU has now out-gained seven of its last eight opponents and out-rushed seven of its last eight foes. It's also hit the 50-point mark five of its last six times out.

Heading into Saturday's game, Oklahoma is 10-3-1 ATS its last 14 times out favored by fewer than 10 points. At 11-1 on the season, the Sooners still have a shot to make the College Football Playoff.


Smart betting pick

Texas won this matchup back in October 48-45 as a seven-point underdog. Also, each of the last five meetings in this series has been decided by seven points or less. The smart money here takes the Longhorns and the points.


College football betting trends

Texas is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. Oklahoma.

The total has gone over in 11 of Oklahoma's last 13 games.

Texas is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games in Week 14.


All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.