CFP Bowl Projections 2018: Predicting Playoff, New Year's Games
Let the debate between Oklahoma and Ohio State begin.
Over the next week, the conversation regarding the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff will heat up due to victories by the Sooners and Buckeyes over ranked foes in Week 13.
Entering Week 14, it looks like the two teams will be battling it out for one playoff position, but if upsets occur in other games, both could forge a path to the final four.
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Outside of the playoff, the picture for the New Year's Six bowls got clearer amid the chaos, as Michigan and Washington State, who both have two losses, should qualify as at-large teams since the programs beneath them in the rankings all have three defeats.
Entering conference championship weekend, the only power conference not projected to put two teams in the playoff and New Year's Six is the ACC.
Playoff Predictions
Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
New Year's Six
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Washington
Fiesta Bowl: Washington State vs. UCF
Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. Georgia
Peach Bowl: Florida vs. Michigan
Michigan's Loss Sets Up Debate For No. 4 Seed
The shakeup we were awaiting in the College Football Playoff rankings occurred Saturday, when Ohio State dropped Michigan in dominant fashion, a result that sparked the debate for the No. 4 seed.
Michigan is clearly out of the playoff, and the Wolverines will have to settle for an at-large spot in the New Year's Six. Jim Harbaugh's team has an outside chance to receive an invitation to the Rose Bowl if the Buckeyes win the Big Ten Championship and make the playoff.
For the next week—and probably much longer—the debate between Oklahoma and Ohio State for the fourth playoff position will rage on.
Neither team will be ranked in the top four entering championship weekend, but one of Georgia or Alabama has to lose the SEC Championship.
Oklahoma's defense has been awful throughout the season, but the Sooners looked better than the Buckeyes going into Week 13, as Ohio State struggled with Nebraska and Maryland, neither of whom will play in bowl games.
What comes into play if the Sooners and Buckeyes are judged head-to-head is how the committee views their respective resumes, with an emphasis on recent results.
Oklahoma has the better opportunity to pick up a quality win in Week 14, as it receives a chance to avenge its lone loss to Texas while Ohio State faces a four-loss Northwestern team.
There's also a scenario in which both teams don't get in if Georgia knocks off top-ranked Alabama and the selection committee deems the Crimson Tide's resume as a one-loss team better than the Sooners or Buckeyes, but Oklahoma and Ohio State can counter that argument with conference championships.
The scenarios will continue to be dissected with every breath over the next week, but for now, all Oklahoma and Ohio State can do is win their respective games and become the biggest fans of the Crimson Tide.
Pac-12 Guaranteed Of 2 Teams In New Year's Six
Although the Pac-12 lost its playoff long shot when Washington defeated Washington State Friday, it added to its New Year's Six participants.
The winner of Friday's Pac-12 Championship between Utah and Washington will head to the Rose Bowl, with the Huskies looking for a return to Pasadena for the first time since 2001 and the Utes searching for their first-ever Rose Bowl berth.
By not beating rival Washington in the Apple Cup, Washington State lost an outside chance of qualifying for the playoff, but it's almost guaranteed a spot in the Fiesta Bowl since it only has two losses.
Even if the Cougars fall in the rankings, they will have one less loss than Florida, Penn State, West Virginia, Texas and both Pac-12 Championship participants.
When the bowl committees evaluate the resumes of at-large teams for the New Year's Six, Mike Leach's side should be one of the first programs selected.
It's not the situation the Pac-12 hoped for, but in a season that has been far from spectacular throughout the conference, it's the best-possible scenario to showcase the talents of the conference on a national stage.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
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