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Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles Odds, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 22, 2018

Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks looks for a receiver against Idaho during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 17, 2018, in Gainesville, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
John Raoux/Associated Press

Florida State owns bragging rights in the recent rivalry with Florida, winning the last five meetings outright and going 4-1 against the spread along the way.

But the Seminoles will play as desperate home dogs when they host the Gators in a Sunshine State showdown on Saturday afternoon in Tallahassee.

     

College football point spread: The Gators opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 34.0-21.5 Gators (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

       

Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread

Florida carries a two-game winning streak into this contest after dispatching of Idaho last week 63-10.

The Gators took a 7-0 lead on a pick-six on the first play of the game, drove their first possession 47 yards to a touchdown, led 28-0 after one quarter and 49-0 at the half. Florida then cruised home from there for the victory and the cover as 41-point favorites.

Florida outgained the Vandals 603-227, as quarterbacks Feleipe Franks and Emory Jones combined to throw for 399 yards and five touchdowns, without an interception.

Meanwhile, the Gators defense scored two touchdowns and held Idaho out of the end zone until just under two minutes remained in the game.

Florida has now outgained and outrushed seven of its last nine opponents, going 6-3 ATS in the process. The Gators are also 3-0 both SU and ATS in true road games this season.

At 8-3 overall, Florida is shooting for a New Year's Six bowl bid.

       

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

FSU just snapped a three-game losing skid with a come-from-behind 22-21 victory over Boston College last week.

The Seminoles trailed the Eagles 7-6 at the half and 21-13 early in the fourth quarter, pulled to within striking distance with a field goal, then won it on a 74-yard bomb from Deondre Francois to Tamorrion Terry with just under two minutes to go.

Florida State racked up 478 yards of total offense. Francois threw for 322 yards while running back Cam Akers produced his first 100-yard rushing effort of the season.

The Seminoles have now outgained three of their last five opponents. At 5-6 overall the Seminoles need to win this game to extend the nation's longest bowl streak to 37 straight seasons.

      

Smart betting pick

Florida State won this matchup last year 38-22 in Gainesville, but the Seminoles have taken a step back since then, while Florida has taken a step forward. Also, the Gators own the better running game and the better defense.

The smart money here favors Florida.

       

College football betting trends

The total has gone over in six of Florida State's last eight games.

The total has gone over in five of Florida's last six games.

Florida is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road versus teams with losing records.

       

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.