Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

Ole Miss owns the edge in the recent rivalry with Mississippi State, winning three of the last four meetings outright, including an upset in Starkville last season, going 3-1 against the spread along the way. The Rebels battle the Bulldogs for the 115th time in the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving night in Oxford.

College football point spread: The Bulldogs opened as 9.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 39.4-27.6 Bulldogs (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

MSU just bounced back from that loss to Alabama two weeks ago to trounce Arkansas last week 52-6. The Bulldogs jumped out to a 17-0 lead on the Razorbacks, let Arkansas get within 17-6 early in the third quarter, then scored the last five touchdowns of the game and covered easily as 23-point favorites.

On the day, Mississippi State out-gained the Hogs 475-219, out-rushed Arkansas 287-69 and won the turnover battle 3-1, creating a plus-18 point differential.

The Bulldogs have now out-gained and out-rushed five of their last six opponents, going 4-2 both SU and ATS in the process. At 7-4 overall, Mississippi State is already going to a bowl, but it needs a victory here to finish .500 in SEC play.

Why the Ole Miss Rebels can cover the spread

Mississippi started this season 5-2 but now seeks to halt a four-game losing skid, after falling at Vanderbilt in overtime last week 36-29. The Rebs actually scored the first 13 points of the game, went down by a touchdown in the third quarter but forced OT with a field goal with just under a minute to go. Ole Miss then gave up a Commodores touchdown in the top of the extra period, then had a touchdown of its own taken away on an iffy replay call in the bottom.

On the night, the Rebels out-gained Vanderbilt 578-387. But a blocked punt and two fourth-quarter interceptions cost Ole Miss at least 12 points and quite possibly the cover as a three-point dog.

The Rebels have now out-gained four of their last six opponents, and they've either led or been tied in the fourth quarter in each of their last three games, only to lose all three. At 5-6 overall, Mississippi needs a win Thursday night to become bowl-eligible.

Smart betting pick

Ole Miss won this matchup last year 31-28 but MSU quarterback Nick Fitzgerald missed most of that game with an ankle injury. As for this game, Mississippi State owns the better ground attack and the much better defense, and that should be enough. Smart money here bets the Bulldogs.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in four of Mississippi State's last five games vs Ole Miss.

Ole Miss is 0-5 ATS in its last five games.

Ole Miss is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. its conference.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.