Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 15, 2018

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - NOVEMBER 11: Andrew Luck #12 of the Indianapolis Colts throws a pass in the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the fourth quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 11, 2018 in Indianapolis, Indiana.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Andy Lyons/Getty Images

A key AFC South matchup will take place in Indianapolis on Sunday when the Colts (4-5) host the Tennessee Titans (5-4) as small home favorites at sportsbooks. The Colts have won three straight games following a four-game losing streak while the Titans have won two in a row to pull within one game of first place in the division.


NFL point spread: The Colts opened as three-point favorites; the total was 49 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.3-21.7 Colts (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Titans can cover the spread

Tennessee has posted its two biggest wins of the season in consecutive weeks, beating the Dallas Cowboys 28-14 on the road in the Week 9 Monday night matchup and then routing the New England Patriots 34-10 at home last Sunday.

The Titans were underdogs of more than four points in both games and won each easily after losing three straight prior to that. In fact, they are 5-2 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as underdogs, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.


Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck has never lost to Tennessee, going a perfect 9-0 SU in nine all-time meetings. With or without Luck under center, the Colts are 9-1 SU in the past 10 games between the teams at home and 10-3 ATS in the previous 13 overall as well.

The Colts have also gone an impressive 26-11 SU in their last 37 games versus divisional opponents, and the Titans are just 4-17-1 ATS in their last 22 against AFC South opponents on the road. All of those trends are obviously favorable for the home team here, giving Indianapolis a great shot to win and cover the spread.


Smart betting pick

The small number makes it tempting to take the Colts in this spot because all they basically need to do is win the game. They have won their last four as home favorites of three points or less, going 3-0-1 ATS in those games. And the push came against the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday when they won 29-26 as three-point home favorites.

Indianapolis led Jacksonville 29-16 at halftime though, and you can bet the team will try much harder to score in the second half this time. Take the Colts to win and cover.


NFL betting trends

The Titans are 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs the Colts.

The Colts are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games at home vs teams with winning records.

The total has gone under in 12 of the Colts' last 17 games at home.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.