LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 7, 2018

LSU quarterback Joe Burrow (9) passes in the first half of an NCAA college football game against Alabama in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Nov. 3, 2018. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

LSU holds the edge in the recent rivalry with Arkansas, winning five of the last seven meetings straight up, including blowout victories and covers the last two seasons. The Tigers are favored by double digits for the annual Battle for the Golden Boot on Saturday evening in Fayetteville.

   

College football point spread: The Tigers opened as 16.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 36.6-17.7 Tigers (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

   

Why the LSU Tigers can cover the spread

LSU is shooting to bounce back this week from a 29-0 loss at home to Alabama last week. The Tigers hung around for a while against the best team in the country, only trailing 9-0 well into the second quarter. But the No. 1 offense in college football eventually broke through, and the LSU offense just couldn't get anything going against that Crimson Tide defense.

The best thing for the Bayou Bengals now is to pick up the pieces and move on.

A month ago, the Tigers handed the best team in the SEC East, Georgia, its only conference loss of the season, 36-16, and just after that, they beat Mississippi State 19-3. So LSU is 4-2 both SU and ATS in SEC play this season.

The Tigers have also won the last two meetings in this series by scores of 38-10 and 33-10.

   

Why the Arkansas Razorbacks can cover the spread

Arkansas is a tough case to make at the moment, struggling through its first season under new coach Chad Morris. Three weeks ago, the Hogs broke a six-game losing streak with a 23-0 victory over Tulsa, but two weeks ago lost at home to Vanderbilt 45-31. Arkansas then had last week off.

The Razorbacks actually drove the opening possession of the game against the Commodores 75 yards to a touchdown, and only trailed 31-24 late into the fourth quarter. But a pair of Vandy touchdowns in the last five minutes helped create a slightly misleading final score.

On the day, Arkansas actually out-gained the Commodores 447-442. But the Hogs lost the turnover battle 2-0, resulting in a minus-14 point differential. At 2-7 overall, Arkansas can't make a bowl but it would like to create some momentum to carry over into next season.

    

Smart betting pick

So far this season, SEC teams that have played Alabama are 3-2 both SU and ATS their next time out. However, Arkansas is 4-1 ATS over its last five games, and 2-1 ATS this season as a home dog. Also, teams ranked in the AP Top 25 are 126-38 SU this season against unranked opponents but just 69-90-5 ATS. LSU will probably win this game but smarter money takes the Hogs and the points.

    

College football betting trends

LSU is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games vs Arkansas.

The total has gone under in three of LSU's last four games vs Arkansas.

Arkansas is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games at home in November.

     

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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