NFL Predictions Week 7: Full Projections, Odds, Highlighting Top Fantasy Stars

The Denver Broncos defense is No. 1 in fantasy points in Week 7 with 28 after the team crushed the Arizona Cardinals 45-10 thanks in part to two interception returns for touchdowns.

Denver's defense should end up being close to the top overall when the entire Week 7 slate is over, but a few players are bound to drop monster performances to place themselves over the 30-point range.

We'll take a look at two possibilities below in addition to providing some Week 7 score projections and odds, per OddsShark.

Full Score Projections and Odds

Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 45 O/U) in London: LAC 27, TEN 10

New England Patriots (-2.5, 49 O/U) at Chicago Bears: NE 24, CHI 23

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 51.5 O/U): CLE 24, TB 23

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 44.5 O/U): PHI 27, CAR 24

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 46 O/U) at New York Jets: MIN 20, NYJ 13

Detroit Lions (-3, 46.5 O/U) at Miami Dolphins: MIA 24, DET 20

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5, 43 O/U): BUF 17, IND 16

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 41 O/U): HOU 17, JAX 13

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 49.5 O/U): NO 27, BAL 24

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-1, 41.5 O/U): DAL 24, WAS 20

Los Angeles Rams (-9.5, 52 O/U) at San Francisco 49ers: LAR 31, SF 13

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 58 O/U): KC 34, CIN 27

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 54 O/U): ATL 34, NYG 24

Los Angeles Rams RB Todd Gurley (at San Francisco 49ers): 35 Points (PPR)

Here are Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley's stats from his worst fantasy output this season: 108 rushing yards, three catches, 39 receiving yards, one touchdown.

In other words, he put up 23.3 fantasy points in point-per-reception leagues. That's his 2018 floor.

We may be living in an era where offenses are more dominant than ever before, but that production from Gurley is unbelievable. Fantasy players who have Gurley on their roster can pencil in no worse than 20 points every week thanks to his efforts.

Graham Barfield of NFL.com noted how Gurley compares to other running backs in fantasy history:

This Sunday, Gurley faces a 1-5 San Francisco 49ers team that has allowed 29.8 points per game. The Rams have posted 32.7 points per game, so a team total of 30 or more points is a distinct possibility.

Gurley has been fantastic, and he's taken advantage of the excellent play calling from Rams head coach Sean McVay.

Many stats and pieces have been provided about the topic (check out this article from Josh Hermsmeyer for FiveThirtyEight as an example), but this is a particularly interesting nugget from George Chahrouri of Pro Football Focus:

The Rams are wise to run at optimal times as opposed to going up the gut again and again or in second-and-long situations. Gurley has an excellent skill set, and that in turn makes this a perfect marriage of coach and player.

Gurley also has 11 touchdowns through six games and is clearly the man the team goes to when it crosses the 20-yard line: Per Pro Football Reference, Gurley is No. 1 in rushing attempts from the 20-yard line or farther (37), No. 1 in rushing attempts from the 10-yard line or farther (26) and No. 1 in rushing attempts from the five-yard line or farther (11). He's also tied for seventh in red-zone targets regardless of position with 11.

In summary, Gurley has a positive matchup where his team should score a lot of points, and he's the clear top projected fantasy producer.

New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley (at Atlanta Falcons): 33 Points (PPR)

The New York Giants gained 401 yards from scrimmage in a 34-13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6, and running back Saquon Barkley was responsible for 229 of them.

The rookie out of Penn State has now amassed the second-most yards from scrimmage in the league, behind only the aforementioned Gurley. He's a threat to score on every play and is a fantastic rusher and pass-catcher who is somehow defying massive individual expectations through six weeks.

Per Pro Football Reference, Barkley is on pace to record 2,163 yards from scrimmage and score 16 touchdowns through 16 games. It's not impossible to believe Barkley can hit those numbers, in part because he has some favorable matchups on the horizon.

One of those will come against the Atlanta Falcons, who have allowed 43, 37, 41 and 29 points in their last four games, respectively. The Falcons are without safeties Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal in addition to linebacker Deion Jones, all of whom have injuries that have kept them off the field long term.

While the team may have defensive tackle Grady Jarrett back following a two-game absence due to an ankle injury (he practiced in a limited capacity Friday), the Falcons have still allowed the second-most points per game.

Jarrett should make a difference, but the Atlanta defense is so shorthanded that it's hard seeing them bounce back too much.

The Falcons also rank second-last in the NFL in run-defense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) per Football Outsiders, and they've given up the second-most receiving yards per game to running backs (73.0) in the league. 

This all leads to another potential breakout game for Barkley, who could conceivably surpass 1,000 yards from scrimmage for the season when he's done playing Atlanta.