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Atlanta Falcons running back Tevin Coleman (26) runs against Carolina Panthers cornerback James Bradberry (24) during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 16, 2018, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
Atlanta Falcons running back Tevin Coleman (26) runs against Carolina Panthers cornerback James Bradberry (24) during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 16, 2018, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)John Bazemore/Associated Press

Tevin Coleman, Ito Smith Fantasy Outlook vs. Bucs with Devonta Freeman out

Timothy RappOct 12, 2018

Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn announced Friday that running back Devonta Freeman would miss Sunday's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, leaving fantasy owners to wonder how to value Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith.

Coleman is easy. In the three games Freeman has missed this season, Coleman has rushed 45 times for 191 yards while adding nine receptions for 58 yards and a score. That's an average of 10.3 fantasy points per week in standard leagues, putting Coleman firmly in the RB2 conversation.

It's hard to imagine his usage rate or production would drop with Freeman once again sidelined. Against a Buccaneers offense that gives up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs per week (27.1), per Yahoo Sports, Coleman is a safe bet to score double-digit points.

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Start him with confidence in all formats.

Smith is a bit trickier. Over the past two weeks he's notched two rushing touchdowns, and while Freeman was out he was given 18 carries for 75 yards and a score, adding seven receptions for 62 yards. It's clear Coleman is the top option in Freeman's stead, but Smith has proved to have a valuable role himself.

Of course, it's easier to trust touches than touchdowns. Coleman is going to see more opportunities than Smith, giving him more chances to produce. Smith, however, appears likely to see the always valuable goal-line opportunities, meaning he might only need a few plays to justify his starting spot in your lineup.

There's also this stat, as Gaby Moran of AtlantaFalcons.com passed along:

"According to Pro Football Focus, Smith has the third-best elusive rating among running backs in the NFL with at least 20 rush attempts. The elusive rating distills the success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking in from of him. Smith has avoided nine total tackles and is averaging more than three yards after contact per touch, the eighth-most in the NFL."

That's not enough to vault Smith past Coleman in fantasy value, but it is an indication that Smith is making the most of his touches. As well, while touchdown production can be fickle, the fact that Smith could see those always desirable goal-line carries means he's worth considering in your flex spot.

Ultimately, there are better options than Smith, and he shouldn't be a consideration outside of deeper leagues or unless you are desperate with other players on a bye week.

Yes, there are worse options available. But there are better ones, too.

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