Hyun-Jin Ryu Justifies Dodgers Making Him Playoff Ace Above Clayton Kershaw

There were gasps aplenty when the Los Angeles Dodgers tabbed Hyun-Jin Ryu to start their postseason run rather than longtime ace Clayton Kershaw.

Ryu made sure no gasps turned into angry shouts. 

All it took were seven shutout innings against the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Thursday at Dodger Stadium. With help from home runs by Joc Pederson, Max Muncy and Kiké Hernandez, Ryu walked away from a 6-0 Dodgers win with his first postseason victory since 2013.

Like that, whatever controversy there was over the Dodgers' snub of Kershaw went out the window.

Mind you, calling it a "snub" was a stretch. For while Kershaw understandably expected to get the ball in Game 1, manager Dave Roberts insisted the ace left-hander came around as soon as the reasoning was spelled out.

"He obviously wanted to pitch Game 1, and expected to," Roberts said, according to MLB.com's AJ Cassavell. "But after talking to him and explaining our thoughts, he accepted it, and he just said he'll be ready to go for the second game."

Kershaw would have been starting on his normal four days of rest if he'd gotten the Game 1 assignment, but his splits show his regular-season effectiveness went up as his rest increased.

If that holds, Kershaw may turn in a performance to rival Ryu's in Game 2 Friday. If not, he might get another shot at the Braves in the event of a Game 5. He wouldn't be on extra rest, but starting him on regular rest in Game 5 beats starting him on short rest in Game 4.

It's also not as if Kershaw offered a better matchup against the Braves than Ryu. If anything, the opposite was true.

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

Courtesy of his three National League Cy Young Awards, MVP, five ERA titles and numerous other accomplishments, Kershaw has a reputation as the best pitcher of his era that precedes him.

And yet it's an open secret that he's not invincible anymore. The 2.73 ERA he posted in 2018 was his highest since 2010. He's downplaying a fastball that no longer has above-average velocity. Likewise, his strikeout rate was barely above average this season.

For his part, Ryu has also been downplaying a low-velocity fastball since he reclaimed his status as a regular in the Dodgers rotation in 2017 after he endured two years ruined by shoulder surgery.

He nonetheless put up a 1.97 ERA in 15 starts this season. His walk and home run rates were basically equal to Kershaw's, and he struck out 9.7 batters per nine innings to Kershaw's 8.7.

So while Roberts isn't likely to say it while he and Kershaw are still inhabiting the same planet, Ryu is arguably a better pitcher than Kershaw right now.

Moreover, the 31-year-old had the approach needed to silence Atlanta's bats out of the gate.

As MLB Network's Tom Verducci alluded to during Thursday's broadcast, Braves hitters like to swing their bats. They had the highest swing rate of any National League team, and they especially loved hacking at first-pitch fastballs (meaning four-seamers and two-seamers):

• 20.2 Swing%, 2nd in MLB
• .667 SLUG%, 2nd in MLB

When it comes to first-pitch fastballs, Kershaw and Ryu couldn't be more different. The former led with heat 64.4 percent of the time. The latter? Only 41 percent.

Ryu didn't budge from this formula against the Braves in Game 1. Only 10 of his 25 first pitches (40 percent) were fastballs, and only a handful were in the strike zone:

Image courtesy of BaseballSavant.MLB.com

Braves hitters never got comfortable against Ryu's backward, inside-out approach. They mustered four hits off him and walked zero times. Ryu struck out eight.

For now, it's good enough for the Dodgers that Ryu's mastery led the way to a 1-0 series lead. What could make Roberts' call look even better in hindsight is if it has a positive effect on Kershaw in Game 2.

It's fair to question (as Jon Weisman did at Dodger Thoughts) whether Kershaw's terrible postseason track record is actually that terrible. But everyone and their uncle knows it's not good, which has to do with how he's never taken the mound in October under anything less than a glaring spotlight. Only Kershaw himself knows for sure, but it's fair to wonder how much responsibility that pressure bears for his past failures.

This time, however, things will be a little different when Kershaw takes the bump at Chavez Ravine on Friday.

Nobody will expect the lefty to get the Dodgers off on the right foot. He must only continue what Ryu started. That's less of a tall task. It may only help him improve on his recent playoff debuts—see his 6.69 ERA in four NLDS Game 1s between 2014 and 2017.

If so, people will have to think twice before second-guessing any further surprises from Roberts. 

More importantly, the Dodgers' 1-0 lead could turn into a 2-0 lead.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.