NFL Predictions Week 4: Top Underdogs Picks, Vegas Odds and Score Predictions

Don't expect the NFL's Week 4 offering to cough up as many lucrative upsets as the week prior. 

Upsets will still occur, of course, but there is likely zero chance the Week 4 slate can match the magnitude of say, Buffalo overcoming an opening spread of 17 points to beat Minnesota. Or Washington taking down Green Bay. Or Detroit trouncing New England. 

Call last week the dream scenario for those who love the thrill of rolling with an underdog and the payoff that comes with it. This week, then, is the return to reality—a handful of upsets will happen, though they won't be as obvious as going against a 17-point spread, like we advised to do. 

Here is a look at the Week 4 lines with a deeper dive into three upsets to target. 

Week 4 NFL Odds

Minnesota at L.A. Rams (-7) | O/U 49

Buffalo at Green Bay (-10) | O/U 45.5

Cincinnati at Atlanta (-6) | O/U 51

Detroit at Dallas (-3) | O/U 43.5

Houston at Indianapolis (-1) | O/U 47

Miami at New England (-7) | O/U 47.5

N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville (-7.5) | O/U 38

Philadelphia (-4) at Tennessee | O/U 41.5

Tampa Bay at Chicago (-1.5) | O/U n/a

Cleveland at Oakland (-3) | O/U 45

Seattle (-3) at Arizona | O/U 38.5

New Orleans (-3.5) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 50

San Francisco at L.A. Chargers (-10.5) | O/U 47.5

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3) | O/U n/a

Kansas City (-4.5) at Denver | O/U 56

Detroit at Dallas (-3)

John Froschauer/Associated Press

A showdown between 1-2 teams isn't exactly thrilling, but the Dallas Cowboys at home would make plenty of sense most seasons. 

Most seasons don't feature the stunning offensive ineptitude coming out of America's team, though. These Cowboys have scored 20 points in a game once, scoring 21 combined over their two losses, and Dak Prescott has thrown for 145 yards per game with a pair of touchdowns and interceptions. 

Prescott is going in the opposite direction of what most might have expected from him: 

Not to pile on, but Prescott might actually...be a fourth-round player. He doesn't have droves of talent around him, but he's not exactly elevating his unit, either. 

The Lions are at least predictable—which for the Lions means strong play from Matthew Stafford and bad defense, hence a 48-17 loss to the New York Jets and a 30-27 loss to the San Francisco 49ers before blowing away New England 26-10.  

Through it all, Stafford has completed 65.2 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and five interceptions, with four of the latter coming in that odd season opener.

What's interesting for bettors here is the predictable outburst from second-round rookie Kerryon Johnson, who is a perfect fit in the scheme and has drummed up 161 yards on a 5.6 per-carry average.

Detroit finally let him be a workhorse against the Patriots and he carried 16 times for 101 yards, helping the Lions sit on the ball for 39 minutes and 15 seconds. 

Provided Detroit doesn't stop leaning on its new offensive star, Prescott and the Cowboys are going to have limited chances to put points on the board—a terrible development for one of the NFL's worst offenses. 

Prediction: Lions 23, Cowboys 13

New Orleans (-3.5) at N.Y. Giants

Bob Levey/Getty Images

Here's another case of bad defense meeting an elite rookie runner. 

Seasoned bettors know the New Orleans Saints are a mess on the road in the first place. Pair it with terrible defense and the outlook only gets worse—or better, depending on one's perspective. 

So far this year, the Saints coughed up a 48-40 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, survived the Cleveland Browns by three points (21-18) and needed overtime to best the Atlanta Falcons (43-37), resulting in the following allowances and ranks: 

• 421 yards per game (30th)
• 336.7 passing yards per game (30th)
• 34.3 points per game (32nd).

One can begin to see why, on the road, the Saints might have some problems with Odell Beckham Jr. on the outside and star running back Saquon Barkley. 

Barkley, in particular, is the name to watch given his versatility: 

Say hello to the NFL's new premier workhorse, as Barkley has tallied 216 yards and a pair of scores on a 4.7 per-carry average while catching 21 of his 27 targets for 137 yards. 

Eli Manning is still a sour point for the Giants because he's probably the slowest quarterback in the league this side of Sam Bradford, meaning a pass rush is effective. And Drew Brees is still Drew Brees as he sits on eight touchdowns with no interceptions while completing 80.6 percent of his passes. 

But, as always, Brees being dynamite offensively can't save a Saints organization that was a flash in the pan defensively last year but has returned to its same old ways.

At home, the Giants have a free pass to control the clock with Barkley while occasionally going over the top with the NFL's best wideout to keep this one at a comfortable margin. 

Prediction: Giants 30, Saints 24

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3)

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

What's the first thing that comes to mind when thinking about the modern classic rivalry between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers?

Defense. 

Do you know which team has zero of it this year? Pittsburgh. 

These Steelers are 1-1-1 after a 21-21 tie with Cleveland, a 42-37 loss to Kansas City and a 30-27 win over Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football.

But even during the first win, a struggling unit coughed up 455 total yards and let Tampa Bay run 69 total plays, getting gifts of interceptions from a fast-fading Ryan Fitzpatrick as help. The unit has now allowed 12 touchdowns over three games. 

The outlook isn't nearly as bad for the 2-1 Ravens, a team that picked up a 47-3 win over Buffalo and a 27-14 win over Denver, with Joe Flacco throwing for six touchdowns against two interceptions.

Notice the conversation here is Baltimore's offense thanks to a revamped wideout depth chart headlined by Michael Crabtree and John Brown, with the latter figuring to have another big game: 

This might be a different conversation if the Pittsburgh offense had Le'Veon Bell in the backfield or the defense could be trusted. Bell's absence hasn't mattered too much yet, but it will against a foe familiar with what the Steelers want to do. And first win or not, this Steelers defense allowed the Buccaneers to storm back Monday, getting outscored 17-0 in the second half. 

Baltimore can score in bunches like that now thanks to this cast of wideouts, so this isn't going to be the typical AFC North slugfest. Better defense and the exploitation of a bad defense will propel the Ravens to a stellar second-half performance. 

Prediction: Ravens 26, Steelers 23

Odds via OddsShark