Week 3 NFL Picks: Vegas Betting Odds, Over/Under Spreads and Line Projections

Slowly, oddsmakers are starting to catch up with the NFL. 

With any luck, would-be bettors have established a nice bankroll over the first two weeks of the new season heading into Thursday Night Football between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns—a betting wasteland, by the way. 

Which doesn't mean there won't be lines to target and exploit, of course. Injuries, up-and-down performers and a few odds and ends make for a nice set of early-week lines. The proof is in the lines themselves, too, as there are hardly any major point spreads in the openers, minus one major exception (which is what happens when you're as bad as the Buffalo Bills). 

Here's a look at the full slate and projections. 

Week 3 NFL Odds

N.Y. Jets at Cleveland (-3) | O/U  39

Buffalo at Minnesota (-17) | O/U 41

Cincinnati at Carolina (-3) | O/U 43.5

Denver at Baltimore (-5) | O/U 43

Green Bay (-3) at Washington | O/U 46

Indianapolis at Philadelphia (-6) | O/U 47.5

New Orleans at Atlanta (-3) | O/U 53

N.Y. Giants at Houston (-6) | O/U 41.5

Oakland at Miami (-3) | O/U 44

San Francisco at Kansas City (-6.5) | O/U 56

Tennessee at Jacksonville (n/a) | O/U 39.5

L.A. Chargers at L.A. Rams (-7) | O/U 48

Chicago at Arizona (n/a) | O/U 

Dallas at Seattle (n/a) | O/U 44.5

New England (-7) at Detroit | O/U 51.5

Pittsburgh (-1.5) at Tampa Bay | O/U 53.5

Green Bay (-3) at Washington

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

This one is as easy as it gets. 

On essentially one leg, Aaron Rodgers went out in Week 1 and threw for 281 yards and a touchdown in a 29-29 tie with the Minnesota Vikings. 

Yes, a tie wasn't the ideal outcome, but Rodgers had to go to work against one of the best teams in the NFL and even worse, one that knows him and the Packers all too well. 

Now he gets to play the Washington Redskins. 

Those Redskins lucked into playing the Arizona Cardinals in the first week of the season or they would likely otherwise be 0-2. They went down in their home opener 21-9 against the Indianapolis Colts, drawing an uninspiring fan attendance and in the process having players call out the fan base over it: 

So no, home-field advantage isn't much of a factor in this one. The Redskins looked lost offensively, getting nothing from Alex Smith in the Week 2 loss and watching as a fading Adrian Peterson rushed for 20 yards on 11 carries, or a 1.8 average. 

The visiting Packers have Rodgers, who is better on one leg than roughly half the league. Not only did he help Jimmy Graham break out last week to the tune of six grabs for 95 yards, but the offense also gets back running back Aaron Jones from suspension, a workhorse sophomore who averaged 5.5 yards per carry last season and figures to be the feature back. 

In other words, the Packers are still improving and the tie was a forgivable offense. Washington, even at home, doesn't have the firepower to match. 

Prediction: Packers 28, Redskins 20

San Francisco at Kansas City (-6.5)

No need to hop off the Kansas City Chiefs hype train just yet. 

The hype isn't unwarranted. Patrick Mahomes got to sit and learn from a quarterback like Alex Smith before entering a system specially tailored to his strengths by quarterbacks guru Andy Reid. 

The result? A stunning 582 yards and 10 touchdowns with no interceptions over two games, both wins. To say Mahomes compares well to other young up-and-coming quarterbacks would be an understatement: 

Mahomes will have to slow down at some point—he just tossed six touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers, after all. 

But it doesn't feel like a slowdown will occur against the visiting San Francisco 49ers, a middling team lucky to be 1-1 because it had a matchup with a bad Detroit Lions team. Even that Week 2 win was only a 30-27 affair in which the Lions coughed up the game despite the 49ers posting a 3-of-11 mark on third down. 

Bad games happen, of course, but the hype train on Jimmy Garoppolo has come to a screeching halt. He's completed just 55.9 percent of his passes with a trio of touchdowns and interceptions while his defense has struggled. 

Like all future Kansas City opponents, the 49ers have more film than usual on Mahomes. But based on Garoppolo and the team's performance so far, it's hard to imagine the 49ers have enough to keep this one close. 

Prediction: Chiefs 35, 49ers 24

New England (-7) at Detroit

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Based on a passing comment about the Lions above, bettors can guess how this projection will play out. 

Detroit is now 0-2, first going down at the hands of the rookie-led New York Jets 48-17 before the loss to the 49rs. Matthew Stafford isn't doing much with a star-studded cast of wideouts, sitting on four touchdowns and interceptions. Perhaps even worse, ample upgrades to the running game over the offseason have resulted in an attack that has attempted a rush all of 33 times over two games, good for a 4.2 per-carry average and one score. 

Don't expect the Lions to find better offensive balance against the New England Patriots. 

First, the rich only got richer this week as the Patriots acquired Josh Gordon, who could suit up if he's healthy enough: 

But even without Gordon, these Patriots are a problem. Brady is his usual self with five touchdowns against one interception, and it would probably be even better if he didn't have to face the Jacksonville Jaguars already. 

That would explain why the Patriots are only 1-1, though they would probably happily admit they are thrilled to have that matchup over with early in the season. The Lions, a team that can't control the clock via the rush or play defense, is the perfect team to get back to form against after the loss. 

Sounds harsh, but Brady isn't going to be rattled against a defense that let a rookie Sam Darnold toss two scores in a rout and Stafford, playing from behind in a predictable attack, isn't going to outduel Brady. 

Prediction: Patriots 27, Lions 17

Odds via OddsShark