Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin II: Expert Picks for the Superfight
Boxing's biggest stars are back.
Just shy of a year since they fought for the first time, Saul "Canelo" Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin are ready for their second act Saturday from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
A controversial draw in the opening stanza made a rematch a near certainty. But fight fans had to wait a while after Canelo's suspension for performance-enhancing drug use derailed plans for a May sequel. This has all helped intensify the rivalry, setting up an epic show in the desert.
Our boxing experts are here to give their predictions and answer questions about the biggest storylines surrounding the superfight.
Who Wins? When and How?
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Lyle Fitzsimmons (@Fitzbitz): I liked Golovkin the first time and believed he did enough to win. He's a year older, and the whipping of Vanes Martirosyan proved nothing worthwhile, but I also haven't seen anything from Canelo to make me think he reverses things. A better action fight means a shorter night—call it Triple-G by TKO in eight.
Kelsey McCarson (@kelsey_mccarson): I like Alvarez by unanimous decision. I think the fight will be a close back-and-forth affair for all 12 rounds, but overall I believe Golovkin will press for the knockout when he shouldn't and that Alvarez will counterpunch him to death on the way to a close but clear victory. This will be Alvarez's best and most impressive performance over a surefire Hall of Famer.
Jonathan Snowden (@JESnowden): Golovkin knows how to beat Canelo. He's even managed to do it before in the eyes of almost everyone in the world but a Nevada boxing judge. This time he'll do it again, riding his jab until Canelo is forced to take a few risks. That's when a right hand ends it. Golovkin, knockout, Round 8.
The Most Memorable Moment of the Fight Will Be…
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Fitzsimmons: The first time Canelo hits the floor, courtesy of a booming right hand in Round 6. It'll be the first time in two fights where one man is clearly dominant, and it'll be the beginning of the end.
McCarson: Alvarez will hurt Golovkin. His clean punches will eventually catch an ever-charging Golovkin off guard, and fans will be surprised to see GGG hurt and reeling from an Alvarez punch. Alvarez won't be able to finish the job, but the stunning site of seeing Golovkin in trouble will be something fans remember forever.
Snowden: Eventually, Golovkin's constant pressure will force Canelo to stand his ground. As we saw in the first fight, that leads to moments of awe-inspiring violence. These are the two best boxers in the world. In the end, that's what we'll remember most.
Will the Fight Make the Rivalry More or Less Intriguing?
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Fitzsimmons: It'll be a better fight, which logically makes it more interesting. But the decisiveness of the result will render the idea of a rivalry moot.
McCarson: More! The first fight was great, but this one will be even better. Both fighters know what they have to do to get the win, and both will press for the fight to go their way. I think both guys will throw and land more punches combined than they did in the first fight, and I expect the bout to be one of the better scraps of the year. Golovkin will want a rematch, and I think Alvarez will make him wait long enough for the two sides to hate each other even more by the time the third fight comes around.
Snowden: The first fight was a respectful clash of gentleman pugilists. This time we'll see elite boxers who happen to hate each other. It's a boxing fan's dream.
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Will the Sequel Beat the First Fight at the Box Office?
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Fitzsimmons: No. The lapse in time between fights one and two—not to mention Canelo running afoul of drug-testing norms—seems to have taken some of the buzz away. But it'll still be a must-see for fans come Saturday night.
McCarson: The first fight did a respectable 1.3 million buys in 2017, and I don't think this will garner more attention than that. The bulk of the buys are coming from Alvarez's huge fanbase, and Golovkin just doesn't mean as much to the general public for the fight to get more buys the second time around. I expect somewhere around 1.2 million buys. Some who bought the first fight will see the draw as a reason to skip the second. It will be their loss, because the second fight should be a cracker!
Snowden: While I haven't noticed much buzz for this outside the hardcore boxing community, neither man tends to make waves in the U.S. mainstream. On Saturday night, fans will gather to watch the best fight of the year anyway. Will it beat the first fight? Who can say. They'll be piling cash into Brink's trucks either way.
Will There Be a Third Bout?
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Fitzsimmons: No. A clear win will eliminate the need for a third go-round, but it's not as if either man will be hurting for options. Golovkin can look forward to sharing the marquee with the likes of Billy Joe Saunders and Jermell Charlo, while Canelo heads back to 154 as the big man on campus with the best-connected promoter. All's well that ends well.
McCarson: Someday. I think Alvarez will take on the winner of the David Lemieux vs. Gary "Spike" O'Sullivan undercard bout next. The fight will give Alvarez another middleweight test without risking going up against one of the other middleweight titleholders. It also keeps the money in-house, as Oscar De La Hoya promotes both Lemieux and O'Sullivan.
Because of his limited drawing power, Golovkin will be forced to take the harder road. Moreover, he is 36 and closer to the end of his career than the beginning, so he will seek the best fight he can make for the most money. Minus a third fight with Alvarez, which I think Alvarez will make him wait on, the most likely fight I see Golovkin taking next is a rematch with Daniel Jacobs.
Snowden: If it's a competitive fight, and it should be, they'll almost certainly see each other in the ring one more time. Boxing is driven, first and foremost, by money. And right now, these men can make more of it together than they can by going their separate ways.
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