Everything You Need to Know for Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin II
It's become a blood feud.
How else could one describe the amount Saul "Canelo" Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin hate each other?
The beef started in the aftermath of their 2017 split draw. Fans and media scoffed at judge Adalaide Byrd's 118-110 score for Alvarez, and while judges Dave Moretti (115-113 Golovkin) and Don Trella (114-114) tabulated the bout more closely, the majority of people who watched it live thought Golovkin deserved the nod.
Alvarez stoked the fire by pulling out of the scheduled May 2018 rematch after testing positive for the banned substance clenbuterol. Golovkin and his team have labeled Alvarez an intentional cheater. So where the two competitors once had mutual respect and admiration for each other and their accomplishments, the only thing that remains between the two best middleweights are equal levels of smoldering vitriol.
Lucky us. The first fight was a cracker. The rematch should be even more lit.
Canelo Alvarez
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Age: 28
Height: 5'8"
Weight: 160 pounds
Reach: 70.5 inches
Stance: Orthodox
Record: 49-1-2, (34 KOs)
Rounds Fought: 364
Trainers: Jose and Eddy Reynoso
Strengths: Creative combination punching, effective counters and footwork
Weaknesses: Lacks one-punch KO power (above junior middleweight)
General Analysis: Alvarez is a tremendous counterpuncher and one of the better combination punchers in boxing. He was successful in the first Golovkin bout when could make Golovkin miss and land clean punches in return. Alvarez's success was limited, particularly in the middle rounds, when Golovkin turned up the pressure and stalked toward the Mexican to land his signature power jab along with a host of other punishments. Alvarez's rematch success will be dependent on turning the bout into his kind of fight. If the two stand and trade punches, Alvarez will lose. If he can get Golovkin into a pure boxing match, he has a better chance of winning.
Gennady Golovkin
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Age: 36
Height: 5'10.5"
Weight: 160 pounds
Reach: 70 inches
Stance: Orthodox
Record: 38-0-1, (34 KOs)
Rounds Fought: 184
Trainer: Abel Sanchez
Strengths: Tremendous punching power, accurate power jab and overall aggression
Weaknesses: Head movement
General Analysis: Golovkin is one of the hardest punchers boxing. An aggressive stalker, he also possesses a fantastic jab that he uses to measure his opponent on the way into the fray. His jab is one of boxing's best punches. It's powerful, accurate and fast enough to land with regularity. In the first fight, that jab is the reason most observers thought he won. In the rematch, Golovkin will want to start faster by focusing on his signature punch during the first three rounds. That would help him build steam, and late in the fight he'll need to focus on preventing Alvarez from stealing the last few rounds—like Canelo did in the first fight—with flurries and counters.
What's at Stake?
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The rematch winner will become boxing's premier attraction now that Floyd Mayweather Jr. is retired and Manny Pacquiao is at the tail end of his career. While Alvarez's mainstream popularity is a level above Golovkin's, boxing's hardcore audience is entrenched in Golovkin's camp. A win for GGG would allow him to take the reins from Alvarez for however much time the 36-year-old has left in his tremendous career.
Golovkin will defend his WBA and WBC middleweight titles. Some people also consider Alvarez the lineal middleweight champion because of his 2015 win over Miguel Cotto, so the winner of this bout will earn that honor in the eyes of those people.
Golovkin is ranked the pound-for-pound No. 1 by The Ring magazine and No. 7 by the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. Both dropped Alvarez after his positive drug tests and the associated layoff, but a win by either fighter should leave the victor somewhere in the top 10 of both ratings.
Moreover, Golovkin is tied with Bernard Hopkins for the middleweight title-defense record at 20. A win would set the new mark at 160 pounds. He'd still be short of the overall record for any division, held by heavyweight champion Joe Louis at 25.
But perhaps the thing that matters most to each fighter is simply being able to say he beat the other man. That's what happens in blood feuds like Alvarez vs. Golovkin. It's not the money. It's not the titles. It's simply the pride of winning.
Odds and Where to Watch
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Odds: According to Odds Shark, Golovkin is the favorite at -170 (bet $170 to win $100), with Alvarez a +145 underdog (bet $100 to win $145). Most odds compilers around the world have the same or similar moneylines. While Golovkin is the the slight favorite per the bookies, Alvarez is earning enough action to keep things close as the fight approaches.
What: Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin 2 for Golovkin's WBA and WBC middleweight world championship belts.
When: Saturday, Sept. 15
Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
TV: HBO PPV at 8 p.m. ET, 5 p.m. PT (Livestream available via Fite.tv)
TV Undercard: Jaime Munguia vs. Brandon Cook, David Lemieux vs. Gary "Spike" O'Sullivan, Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez vs. Moises Fuentes
Prediction
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Most people thought Golovkin won the first fight. According to CompuBox (h/t Sporting News' Andreas Hale), Golovkin threw and landed more punches (218-of-703) than Alvarez (169-of-505), with his biggest advantage coming from jabs. But Alvarez landed a slight majority of power punches (Alvarez 114, Golovkin 110) and enjoyed a slightly higher overall percentage (Alvarez 33.5, Golovkin 31.0) in the fight.
I was part of the minority that saw the first bout as a draw because I thought Alvarez won the first three rounds (barely), then won the last three more convincingly. The rematch will come down to whichever fighter can impose his will on the other man. If Alvarez can lure Golovkin into being overly aggressive, Alvarez can win with effective counters and combinations. If Golovkin gets his wish of making this a toe-to-toe affair, his firepower will overwhelm Alvarez.
But what will happen Sept. 15?
The younger Alvarez—who is also a better overall boxer with more paths to victory—will win. Golovkin will probably press too much for the knockout because of how the first fight was scored, and Alvarez will make him pay by stepping to the side and countering with furious combinations.
Prediction: Alvarez via close, unanimous decision
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