Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

A rematch of last year's American League Division Series between the Boston Red Sox (97-44) and defending World Series champion Houston Astros (87-53) will start up on Friday at Fenway Park, with sportsbooks listing the opener as a pick'em matchup.

The Astros won four of five games with the Red Sox last October en route to winning it all and have taken eight of 12 meetings in the series overall after the teams split four at Minute Maid Park three months ago, according to the OddsShark MLB Database.

MLB betting line: The Red Sox opened as -118 favorites (wager $118 to win $100); the total is at 8.5 runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 4.6-3.6, Red Sox (MLB picks on every game)

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Why the Astros can pay on the MLB lines

Despite Houston having 10 fewer wins than Boston, the team is riding a five-game winning streak and leads MLB with a plus-235 run differential. Pitching has been one of the main strengths of the Astros yet again, as they are the only team in baseball to give up less than 500 runs (460) this year.

Gerrit Cole (13-5, 2.86 ERA) has been a nice addition to Houston's starting rotation in 2018, and he has gone 3-0 in his past four starts. Last time out against the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday, Cole allowed just two runs and six hits in 5.2 innings with three walks and nine strikeouts.

Why the Red Sox can pay on the MLB lines

The Red Sox have won three in a row following a road sweep of the Atlanta Braves, and they should be able to all but wrap up home-field advantage through the AL playoffs by winning this series over the Astros.

Boston owns MLB's best home record at 48-18 as part of the top overall mark and will send David Price (14-6, 3.60 ERA) to the mound opposite Cole, and he has been remarkable since the All-Star break in going a perfect 4-0 with a 1.62 ERA in seven starts. Price has walked only seven batters and struck out 43 in 44.1 innings during that stretch in helping the Red Sox stay hot in the second half.

Smart betting pick

Each of Friday's starting pitchers beat their opponent earlier this season at Houston, even though neither of them turned in a dominant outing in doing so. But Price has been much better at home, going 7-2 with a 3.10 ERA to make him the right play here.

MLB betting trends

The total has gone under in five of Houston's last seven games.

Houston is 8-16 in its last 24 games on the road against Boston.

Boston is 4-1 in its last five games.

All MLB odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.