What Can a Decade-Long Streak of Rookie Starting QBs Teach Us for NFL Week 1?

If indeed Sam Darnold or Josh Allen starts in his regular-season opener this weekend, it'll mark the 11th consecutive year in which at least one rookie quarterback has served as a Week 1 starter. 

It didn't happen in 2007 when the Oakland Raiders decided to take it slow with top pick JaMarcus Russell (in hindsight a bad omen) and the Cleveland Browns made Brady Quinn wait (ditto). But ever since second-round pick John Beck started in Week 11 for the Miami Dolphins that season, at least one rookie has started in each of the last 177 weeks of NFL football. 

Altogether, 64 rookie quarterbacks have participated in that streak, with 20 of those 64 starting Week 1. 

How did those 20 fare and how can their performances prepare us for what Darnold or Allen might have in store? Here's a rundown.

Don't overreact

A hot start does not necessarily lead to a great rookie season or a great career. And a slow start does not necessarily lead to a bad rookie season or a bad career. 

In 2013, Buffalo Bills rookie quarterback EJ Manuel posted a 105.5 passer rating in a turnover-free performance as the Bills nearly beat the big, bad New England Patriots in Week 1. A story from David Shoalts of the Globe and Mail noted that the No. 16 overall pick out of Florida State "showed the poise of a veteran" in his debut, but he finished that campaign with a sub-60 completion percentage and a sub-80 passer rating, and he has started just eight NFL games since.

Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

On the other hand, Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks completed just 18 of 34 passes for 153 yards and a 62.5 passer rating while taking three sacks in a Week 1 loss to the Arizona Cardinals when he was a rookie in 2012. Wilson finished that season in the Pro Bowl with a triple-digit rating, and before long he was a superstar. 

Meanwhile, Robert Griffin III posted a 139.9 rating while helping the Washington Redskins put up 40 points in his Week 1 2012 debut, which led to a superb rookie season but a far from superb career to date. And Matthew Stafford was terrible in his Week 1 starting debut as a rookie in 2009 (16-of-37 and three picks in a blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints), and Stafford was the league's fourth-lowest-rated qualified passer that year, but he's since become an above-average franchise quarterback. 

Darnold would be the youngest Week 1 starting quarterback in modern NFL history, while Allen has always been considered a raw, developmental prospect. The former had issues with turnovers in college, while the latter had issues with accuracy. There will be growing pains, regardless of whether those pains come in Week 1. 

They can absolutely bomb in Week 1 and still redeem themselves, and they can absolutely deliver in Week 1 and still become busts. 

Similar cases

Like Allen, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz was considered a project with intriguing measurables but plenty of work to do coming from an unheralded program in a non-elite conference. But the Eagles shocked the football world by trading veteran Sam Bradford and handing Wentz the starting job just prior to the start of the regular season. Wentz shined in his debut with a triple-digit passer rating and zero turnovers in a blowout victory over the Cleveland Browns but eventually struggled as his rookie season wore on. Of course, he became elite as a sophomore. 

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

Baltimore Ravens rookie signal-caller Joe Flacco possessed traits similar to Allen's when he won the team's Week 1 starting job in 2008. He wasn't able to make much of an impact in his debut (15-of-29, 129 yards, 63.7 rating), but he put together a half-decent rookie season and has also put together a half-decent career. 

Darnold would become the fifth quarterback in the last decade to start Week 1 before turning 22. Three of the last four—Stafford, Jameis Winston and DeShone Kizer—struggled mightily in their debuts and generally as rookies (although Winston did sneak into the Pro Bowl despite mediocre numbers and too many turnovers). But Winston's Week 1 opponent under center was another 21-year-old rookie in Marcus Mariota, who put together one of the best career debuts in NFL history (13-of-15 for 209 yards, four touchdowns, no turnovers and a perfect passer rating of 158.3). 

Josh Rosen has often been compared to Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, but Darnold and Ryan both entered the league coming off turnover-plagued exit seasons in college, as did Ryan Tannehill in 2012. Both Ryan and Tannehill were older than Darnold is now when they started as rookies in Week 1, but the comparisons are still worthwhile. 

DAVE MARTIN/Associated Press

Ryan looked crisp while throwing just 13 passes and committing no turnovers in his debut against an awful Lions team, but he was a mess the following week against a strong Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense (29.6 rating in a blowout loss). Meanwhile, Tannehill was a mess in his debut against the Houston Texans (three interceptions in a blowout loss) before turning it around in a big Week 2 victory over Oakland (91.0 rating and no turnovers). 

Neither had a great rookie season. 

Nobody's perfect

The key takeaway here? Of the 20 quarterbacks who have started from the outset in the last 11 years, not one indisputably lit up the league as a rookie in Week 1, put together a fantastic rookie season and became a top-notch NFL starter. 

Week 1 studs: Mariota, Griffin, Ryan, Cam Newton, Manuel, Andy Dalton, Wentz, Derek Carr. 

Rookie studs: Dak Prescott, Griffin, Wilson, Andrew Luck, arguably Newton and Dalton.

Top-notch starters: Wilson, Ryan, Stafford, maybe Mariota, Luck, Newton, Carr, Flacco, Wentz, Prescott.

This is somewhat subjective, but 13 quarterbacks are listed above and none can be placed definitively in all three categories. The other seven—Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Brandon Weeden, Geno Smith, Winston, Tannehill and Kizer—don't qualify in any area.

The best-case scenario for Week 1 in isolation is a performance like Mariota's or Griffin's. But years later, neither quarterback has become a star. Meanwhile, Ryan and Newton also had strong starts and went on to become MVPs, but they've both hit plenty of speed bumps dating back to their rookie campaigns. 

Matt York/Associated Press

What should we expect? As we've established, more often than not, rookie quarterbacks starting in Week 1 avoid the primary concerns listed in their scouting reports. Raw prospects look comfortable, possibly because the league hasn't figured them out yet. Those prone to mistakes often don't make a lot of them, possibly because their coaches have gone out of their way to incubate them. 

So don't be surprised if Allen starts and draws comparison to a steady veteran Sunday against the Ravens, and be just as prepared for Darnold to start and avoid turning the ball over Monday night against the Lions.

But remember that those performances won't mean much, for better or for worse.

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon