2018 NFL Preview: B/R Experts' Dark-Horse Award Watch

Every NFL player enters each season hoping to help his team make the Super Bowl, but they all have other goals as well.

They all want to have the sort of season that ends with their name being called as an award winner at the NFL Honors ceremony.

In the coming weeks, there will plenty of discussion regarding the leading contenders for accolades ranging from Most Valuable Player to Defensive Player of the Year. For the most part, those conversations will center around usual suspects such as Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack.

But dark horses work their way into these races every year, too. A year ago at this time, no one was talking up Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley as an MVP candidate. By year's end, he was not only that, but he also brought home Offensive Player of the Year honors.

The NFL writers here at Bleacher Report will focus on those under-the-radar candidates as they offer up their picks for the NFL's Dark-Horse Award Watch.

Our Panel

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Before we start delving into dark horses, here's a look at the writers here at Bleacher Report who participated in this voting.

Gary Davenport, NFL Analyst

Tyler Dunne, NFL Features Lead Writer

Mike Freeman, NFL National Lead Writer

Brad Gagnon, NFL Analyst

Matt Miller, NFL Draft Lead Writer

Dan Pompei, NFL National Lead Writer

Brent Sobleski, NFL Analyst

Mike Tanier, NFL National Lead Writer

Coach of the Year

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Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers (2 votes)

NFL Coach of the Year favors dark-horse candidates. Teams that come from nowhere to contend more often than not produce the Coach of the Year winners, like Sean McVay of the Rams in 2017 and Jason Garrett of the Cowboys the year before.

Sure enough, only one of our experts voted for the coach of a team who this panel picked as a division winner last week. That was Anthony Lynn of the Los Angeles Chargers, who NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon tabbed.

Several voters picked first-year coaches and/or men helming teams who were cellar-dwellers a year ago. Hue Jackson of the Cleveland Browns even got a vote.

In something you'll quickly notice as a theme here, the vote was spread out. Only one coach received multiple votes.

That coach was offensive wunderkind Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers, who some expect will challenge the Rams atop the NFC West in 2018.

As with McVay last year, Bleacher Report NFL National Lead Writer Matt Miller expects Shanahan's offensive acumen to be a crucial part of San Fran's turnaround this season.

"Shanahan showed in his first season just how good he is at scheming and adjusting to score points," Miller said. "Now he's had a full offseason with Jimmy Garoppolo and bolstered the offense through the draft and free agency. With that in mind, Shanahan could turn the six-win 49ers into a 10-win playoff team and win Coach of the Year honors."

One other writer agreed—and that's all it took.

Others receiving votes: Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns (1 vote); Vance Joseph, Denver Broncos (1 vote); Anthony Lynn, Los Angeles Chargers (1 vote); Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears (1 vote); Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote); Pat Shurmur, New York Giants (1 vote)

Offensive Player of the Year

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Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions (2 votes)

The NFL's Offensive Player of the Year Award is a consolation prize of sorts for the top-tier running backs and receivers who have zero chance at winning MVP because they don't play quarterback.

And even then, six of the last 10 OPOY winners have been quarterbacks. Bunch of glory hogs.

The other four winners, including Gurley last season, were tailbacks. B/R NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier went that route here, choosing Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans as his dark-horse pick. 

"Henry is a 245-pound bruiser between the tackles with big-play capability who also averaged 11.4 yards per reception over his first two seasons, yet he was trapped in one of the most ridiculous backfield rotations in the league and in an offense that Amos Alonzo Stagg would have considered old-fashioned," Tanier said. "Henry has gained 1,507 scrimmage yards and scored 11 touchdowns in 310 career touches. Betcha he doubles all of those totals now that the DeMarco Murray and 'exotic smashmouth' experiments are history."

However, a quarterback managed to garner the second vote needed to win the day here. NFL Analysts Brad Gagnon and Gary Davenport both tabbed Matthew Stafford of the Lions as a sleeper to pick up his first individual award since he won Comeback Player of the Year back in 2011.

"Smack dab in the middle of his prime at the age of 30, Stafford is coming off the highest-rated season of his career," Gagnon said. "He truly has become a better passer post-Calvin Johnson, and he could be on the verge of an explosion in 2018."

Others receiving votes: Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote); Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote); Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans (1 vote); Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote); Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (1 vote); JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote)

Defensive Player of the Year

Bill Feig/Associated Press

Cameron Jordan, DE, New Orleans Saints (2 votes)

You won't find any votes here for three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt of the Houston Texans. Even though he's coming off two consecutive injury-marred seasons, it's blasphemous to call one of the two men in NFL history to win the award that many times a dark horse.

What you will find is a who's who of the league's underappreciated linemen—players who don't get the run Watt and Khalil Mack do despite wreaking havoc on a weekly basis.

Bleacher Report NFL Features Lead Writer Tyler Dunne tabbed Super Bowl LII hero Brandon Graham of the Philadelphia Eagles.

"Graham's forced fumble won his team the Super Bowl, and he's not done yet," Dunne said. "He's already played in the league eight, going on nine seasons, but Graham appears to be that rarest of breeds who keeps getting better into his 30s at defensive end. He's just now peaking into a game-changing presence on the NFL's best defense."

NFL Analyst Brent Sobleski picked Browns young gun Myles Garrett, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft.

"Garrett is bursting with potential after proving he can be a consistently disruptive force during his rookie campaign while being hampered by a high-ankle sprain," he said. "His natural talent is obvious and difficult for any blocker to handle. Drastic improvement is expected if he remains healthy alongside a much-improved surrounding cast, especially the Browns' revamped secondary."

For the third time in as many categories, it's the lone player with multiple votes who earns the nod for dark-horse DPOY. Tanier and Davenport both singled out New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan.

"After Calais Campbell exploded for 14.5 sacks last year, the mantle of the NFL's most underappreciated defensive end may have fallen to Jordan," Davenport said. "Not only is Jordan an excellent two-way player who set career highs in solo tackles (48) and sacks (13) last year, but the 29-year-old plays for a Super Bowl contender in New Orleans. The former gives him the chops to win the award. The latter will keep him in the minds of those who vote for it."

Others receiving votes: DeForest Buckner, DE, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote); Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams (1 vote); Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns (1 vote); Brandon Graham, DE, Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote); Chandler Jones, DE, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote); Ndamukong Suh, DT, Los Angeles Rams (1 vote)

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (3 votes)

It's a quarterback's world where individual awards are concerned. But as of mid-June, a running back was favored to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

No. 2 overall pick Saquon Barkley is the runaway favorite to win OROY at +140 (bet $100 to win $140), per OddsShark. He's followed by a trio of quarterbacks in Cleveland's Baker Mayfield (+400), Buffalo's Josh Allen (+900) and Arizona's Josh Rosen (+900).

Digging deeper, Miller looked to Julio Jones' new running mate, Atlanta Falcons wideout Calvin Ridley.

"Ridley's electric route-running and pro-readiness coming out of Alabama should make him a dark-horse favorite to get the targets, catches and touchdowns to take home postseason hardware," Miller said.

Several other voters looked to this year's crop of tailbacks who aren't named Saquon Barkley. Denver's Royce Freeman and Seattle's Rashaad Penny face battles to win the starting jobs for their respective teams in camp, but the pair of young runners combined for three votes.

The winner in this category brought home that many himself.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is as much a threat to hurt defenses with his legs as his arm. He's evoked comparisons to a young Mike Vick.

But as things stand right now, Jackson is also the clear No. 2 quarterback in Charm City behind a former Super Bowl MVP in Joe Flacco.

Bleacher Report NFL National Lead Writer Mike Freeman doesn't expect that to remain the case.

"It's only a matter of time before the Ravens start Jackson over Joe Flacco," Freeman said. "Jackson is too talented, and Flacco has been in a steady decline."

Apparently, Freeman isn't alone.

Others receiving votes: Royce Freeman, RB, Denver Broncos (2 votes); Derrius Guice, RB, Washington Redskins (1 vote); Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote); Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons (1 vote)

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Jeffrey T. Barnes/Associated Press

Tremaine Edmunds, ILB, Buffalo Bills (3 votes)

Defensive Rookie of the Year appears to be Bradley Chubb's award to lose. Oddsmakers have tabbed the Denver Broncos defensive end as the prohibitive favorite for the award at +140, according to OddsShark.

After Chubb comes Chicago Bears inside linebacker Roquan Smith at +400. That Smith garnered a vote here stretches the definition of dark horse, although if the Bears continue insisting on the dumbest offset language in history and Smith continues holding out, his sleeper case will become stronger.

However, no one else among the top four favorites for DROY got a vote here.

Two experts, including Sobleski, tabbed Alabama linebacker Rashaan Evans, who will prowl the inside of Mike Vrabel's defense in Tennessee.

"Roquan Smith and Tremaine Edmunds heard their names called before Rashaan Evans among off-the-ball linebackers," Sobleski said, "but the Tennessee Titans defender is arguably the most prepared to produce early in his career after playing in Nick Saban's defense and calling the plays. Avery Williamson averaged 99 tackles over the last three seasons before signing with the New York Jets, and the Titans can expect similar production from the rookie."

Just as on draft day though, it's Edmunds who moved ahead of Evans here.

At +800, Edmunds checks in fifth on OddsShark's list of DROY contenders. The 20-year-old has the skill set to be a dominant defensive force in the NFL. He has the speed to cover tailbacks and slot receivers and harass quarterbacks off the edge and the strength to fight through blocks and get to the quarterback.

He's also not old enough to drink yet and is a bit raw as a prospect.

Edmunds has a clear path to starting in the middle for a Bills team with a long history of inside linebackers who posted gonzo numbers, whether it was Zach Brown or Preston Brown before him.

It's a convergence of talent and opportunity—one with the potential to net Edmunds some attaboys at the end of the year.

Others receiving votes: Rashaan Evans, ILB, Tennessee Titans (2 votes); Harold Landry, OLB, Tennessee Titans (1 vote); Roquan Smith, ILB, Chicago Bears (1 vote); Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Dallas Cowboys (1 vote)

Most Improved Player of the Year

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Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Chicago Bears (4 votes)

Given how spread out the vote has been in most categories, one player nailing down half the votes for Most Improved Player of the Year is almost cause for a group hug.

Granted, other players garnered some attention. Four young players managed at least one vote, including Houston Texans offensive tackle Julie'n Davenport.

"Coming out of Division I-AA Bucknell, Davenport probably should have redshirted as a rookie," NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon said. "He needed time, but now the 6'7", 320-pounder has had a chance to catch his breath. By several accounts, he's made progress this offseason, so watch for him to take a big step forward in 2018."

However, Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky ran away with the vote here.

Trubisky's rookie season last year wasn't awful, but it wasn't good by any stretch, either. In 12 starts for the Bears, Trubisky threw only seven touchdown passes, posted a passer rating of 77.5 and went 4-8.

However, Trubisky also had the weakest corps of receivers in the NFL. In the offseason, the Bears added a number of passing-game weapons, including wide receiver Allen Robinson and tight end Trey Burton. Chicago also has a new offensive-minded head coach in Matt Nagy.

Add it all together, and Bleacher Report NFL National Lead Writer Dan Pompei is among a quartet of scribes who sees a big Year 2 in the offing for Trubisky.

"The Bears have done everything they can to set him up for success," Pompei said. "Trubisky has done everything he can to set himself up for success. He's ready to take a big step."

Others receiving votes: Eli Apple, CB, New York Giants (1 vote); Julie'n Davenport, OT, Houston Texans (1 vote); Zay Jones, WR, Buffalo Bills (1 vote); Ty Montgomery, RB, Green Bay Packers (1 vote)

Fantasy Player of the Year

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers (2 votes)

And we're back to being here, there and everywhere.

Seven players received at least one vote as a dark-horse candidate to be the darling of fantasy football fanatics in 2018. Tanier cast his ballot for rookie tailback Rashaad Penny of the Seattle Seahawks.

"Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer wants to establish the run, run when teams are expecting the run, run like he's coaching a 1970s Texas high school team and so on," Tanier said. "Does it make good football sense? Heck no! Does it mean boffo fantasy potential for the first-round pick, who also happens to be the only legitimate every-down and goal-line running back on the roster? Heck yes!"

Davenpor, the FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year for 2017, went with a player who just got a vote for Most Improved Player of the Year.

"To me, a dark-horse candidate for fantasy POY has to be a guy who not a ton is expected of in 2018—a player who isn't being drafted as a weekly starter," Davenport said. "Ty Montgomery has an ADP outside the top 40 running backs. I expect him to emerge as the lead back for the Packers, and in that role two years ago, he was a top-10 PPR fantasy option at his position down the stretch. Draft him. You won't regret it."

However, a running back who's going quite a bit earlier got the magic pair of votes that's won so many categories here.

Christian McCaffrey did a lot more damage as a receiver than a runner as a rookie last year, finishing 10th among running backs in fantasy points despite sharing time with Jonathan Stewart. Veteran C.J. Anderson will assume Stewart's bruiser duties this year, but Carolina head coach Ron Rivera still wants to get McCaffrey the ball more in 2018.

"He can be a guy who gets the ball somewhere between 25 and 30 times a game," Rivera told reporters in late July. "That would be ideal."

If McCaffrey's per-touch production stays close to last year and his workload sniffs Rivera's lofty goal, he could finish among the top five running backs.

Others receiving votes: Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote); Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (1 vote); Jimmy Graham, TE, Green Bay Packers (1 vote); Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote); Ty Montgomery, RB, Green Bay Packers (1 vote); Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote)

Most Valuable Player

Dave Einsel/Associated Press

J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (2 votes)

A non-quarterback winning the NFL's Most Valuable Player award is slightly more common than photographs of Bigfoot riding a unicorn through Oz. The last non-QB to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012, which was the only time in the past decade-plus that it's happened.

As such, it's hardly a surprise that even in a dark-horse piece, most of the picks for MVP play the NFL's most important position. Pompei went west, settling on Derek Carr of the Oakland Raiders.

"At 27 and with three Pro Bowls behind him," Pompei said, "Carr is at the right place in his career to take off.  And he has the right coach to bring out the best in him in Jon Gruden.  And with Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant and Ryan Switzer joining Amari Cooper, Carr has the right receivers."

At the opposite end of the country, Freeman expects the rebound season to end all rebound seasons from veteran Eli Manning in New York.

"He's healthy, has a potentially great running game, still has Odell Beckham Jr. and has a better defense," Freeman said. "Manning has more weapons around him than he's ever had. This is his year."

That's a pair of bold calls—but not as bold as the two voters who predicted that a defensive player would win NFL MVP for the first time since Lawrence Taylor in 1986.

Watt has come as close as anyone to accomplishing that feat since then, finishing as the runner-up to Aaron Rodgers back in 2014. Dunne is one of the two writers here at B/R who thinks the 29-year-old could seal the deal in 2018.

"How easily we forget how dominant and transcendent J.J. Watt is," Dunne said. "After two seasons sabotaged by injuries, Watt will be more motivated than ever to ruin offenses, and teams cannot sell out blocking him anymore. Jadeveon Clowney has finally blossomed into everything Houston expected. It could all add up to a monster MVP season for Watt, who probably should've won the MVP in 2014."

If that turns out to be the case, you might as well go ahead and inscribe his name on the Comeback Player of the Year award, too.

Others receiving votes: Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders (1 vote); Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote); Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams (1 vote); Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants (1 vote); Alex Smith, QB, Washington Redskins (1 vote); Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans (1 vote)