Metrics 101: 2018 NBA Rookie Season Predictions for Every 1st-Round Pick
Prepare for some restraint.
Now that the league's top rookies have gone through the 2018 NBA draft and joined their new organizations, it's easy to fall in love with their potential. They are clean slates at this stage of their respective careers, brimming over with untapped upside that could manifest itself in so many different ways.
Maybe Deandre Ayton and Trae Young are going to compete for the league's scoring title. Mohamed Bamba might lead the Association in blocked shots, though that's only if Jaren Jackson Jr. doesn't claim the title for himself. So on and so forth.
But reality is usually a little less exciting than these overly optimistic hypotheticals we've crafted in our minds, which is why we should circle back and look at the scores of the top qualified rookies from 2017-18:
- Points per game: Donovan Mitchell (20.5), Kyle Kuzma (16.1), Ben Simmons (15.8), Lauri Markkanen (15.2), Dennis Smith Jr. (15.2)
- Rebounds per game: Ben Simmons (8.1), Lauri Markkanen (7.5), John Collins (7.3), Kyle Kuzma (6.3), Bam Adebayo (5.5)
- Assists per game: Ben Simmons (8.2), Dennis Smith Jr. (5.2), De'Aaron Fox (4.4), Donovan Mitchell (3.7), Bogdan Bogdanovic (3.3)
- Steals per game: Ben Simmons (1.7), Donovan Mithell (1.5), Jayson Tatum (1.0), Josh Jackson (1.0), Dennis Smith Jr. (1.0)
- Blocks per game: Jarrett Allen (1.2), John Collins (1.1), Ben Simmons (0.9), Daniel Theis (0.8), Jayson Tatum (0.7)
Keep those finishes in the back of your mind as we run through the projected stats of this year's first-rounders, based on their pre-NBA production, skill sets and expected playing time in their new homes. Lofty numbers, as you might now expect, are surprisingly rare.
30. Omari Spellman, PF, Atlanta Hawks
1 of 32
School: Villanova
Age: 20
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 10.9 points, 8.0 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.5 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 20.6 PER, 58.8 TS%, 166.66 TPA
Omari Spellman will turn 21 years old before the start of his rookie season, which makes him older than many first-round prospects. But don't mistake time spent on planet Earth for NBA readiness, because this Villanova product—one of four taken in the first 33 picks—isn't quite ready to become a rotation mainstay for the Atlanta Hawks.
The power forward's big body will make him an immediate asset on the glass, but transitioning from a non-featured collegiate role to the grind of a professional calendar should prove a tough adjustment for a youngster who needs significant conditioning work. Unable to keep up with many opposing bigs on the defensive end, he'll likely spend plenty of time in the G League before breaking into the rotation with his sweet shooting stroke.
Spellman could become an immediate pick-and-pop option who uses a relatively slow release to provide spacing for the other young members of the Hawks. But he'll be fighting for playing time with John Collins, Dewayne Dedmon, Mike Muscala and Miles Plumlee, and that's when Atlanta isn't rolling out small-ball lineups that minimize the opportunities of its myriad bigs.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 3.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.4 blocks
29. Dzanan Musa, SF, Brooklyn Nets
2 of 32
Team: Cedevita
Age: 19
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 12.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 19.2 PER, 60.3 TS%
"The Nets take Dzanan Musa. I'm told he would have been taken much higher had he agreed to be stashed in Europe next year, but his insistence on coming to the NBA right away caused him to slip a bit," Jonathan Givony reported for ESPN during the draft. "I like this pick for the Nets. Musa gets buckets, is competitive and super young."
That says it all.
Musa profiles as a dangerous scoring threat from Bosnia and Herzegovina who excels in on-ball situations, creating shots for himself in both transition and the half-court set. But his youth and inability to contribute in many other areas should hinder his immediate crusade for playing time, keeping him buried on the bench or a G League roster until he pairs other skills with those shot-making talents.
That's not a knock on Musa's overall skill level. He already proved a dangerous scorer for Cedevita while still a teenager. But with plenty of backcourt members and DeMarre Carroll guaranteed to remain on the roster even if Joe Harris isn't re-signed, he'll have trouble climbing up the depth chart in an expeditious fashion.
Don't be surprised when Musa breaks out as a sophomore and further justifies general manager Sean Marks' team-building genius. Just be patient first.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 4.5 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.1 blocks
28. Jacob Evans, SG/SF, Golden State Warriors
3 of 32
School: Cincinnati
Age: 21
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 13.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.0 blocks
Even while competing for championships and regular-season records, the Golden State Warriors haven't been shy about handing their rookies significant minutes. And that's telling, since the two most recent notable additions were selected even later in the proceedings than Jacob Evans.
Patrick McCaw was the No. 38 pick of the 2016 NBA draft, and he played 15.1 minutes per game while emerging as a two-way swingman. Then came Jordan Bell, acquired last summer as another No. 38 selection in exchange for cash considerations sent to the Chicago Bulls. He logged 14.2 hyper-efficient minutes per game.
Expect similar playing time for Evans, who benefits from a couple of factors.
First, the Warriors figure to be top-heavy once more, allotting the vast majority of their salary-cap flexibility to the quartet comprised of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green. They have to get contributions from rookie-scale figures to avoid total roster imbalance. Second, Evans' ability to knock down triples (37.0 percent on 4.5 attempts per game as a junior to follow up his sophomore efforts of 4.6 attempts per contest at a 41.8 percent clip) and lock down on defense fits the Dubs' overall schemes.
They cherish those two-way assets and need wing depth. Evans fits the billing, though his statistical profile should change slightly as he spends even more of his energy wreaking defensive havoc.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 3.5 points, 1.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.5 blocks
27. Robert Williams III, PF/C, Boston Celtics
4 of 32
School: Texas A&M
Age: 20
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 10.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.6 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 25.5 PER, 61.4 TS%, 159.48 TPA
Al Horford isn't going anywhere. The ever-underrated pivot should continue serving as a defensive centerpiece for the Boston Celtics who can fill an amorphous offensive role. And while Aron Baynes is hitting free agency this summer, he'd appreciate a return to Beantown.
"I always want a big role," the big man told the Boston Globe's Adam Himmelsbach, also revealing he would consider it a "privilege" to come back as a Celtic. "I want more of a role and I want to be able to contribute to the team more. That's always one of those big things. That was one of the big reasons for coming here. And then how the family is. You definitely have to look out for them. And also just the living situation."
This doesn't bode well for Robert Williams III, especially when factoring in Daniel Theis' impact and Guerschon Yabusele's expected growth heading into his second season. The Texas A&M big might be brimming over with potential, but it comes in a raw package that needs to develop significant discipline before fitting into head coach Brad Stevens' organized attack.
Williams should shoot a remarkably high percentage from the field while serving as little more than a rim-running threat on offense. He'll block shots at an impressive rate when he finds the hardwood. He'll rebound with aplomb, likely understanding that's his best way of swaying the coaching staff.
But the minutes just aren't here yet, leaving Williams as an understudy needing to maximize his minimal run to carve out a bigger future role.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 2.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.8 blocks
26. Landry Shamet, PG, Philadelphia 76ers
5 of 32
School: Wichita State
Age: 21
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 14.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.2 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 21.4 PER, 65.5 TS%, 147.43 TPA
Landy Shamet isn't just a sharpshooter from Wichita State who knocked down 44.2 percent of his triples while taking 5.9 attempts per game—one of only 10 qualified players throughout the NCAA who matched or exceeded both those numbers in 2017-18. Even without NBA-caliber athleticism and a troubling injury history, he's such a good shooter that he deserved the first-round grade doled out by the Philadelphia 76ers.
He's also one of the best spot-up marksmen we've seen in quite some time. According to Synergy, he led the entire college landscape in that play type as a junior, draining enough jumpers to score a whopping 1.49 points per possession. For perspective, a total of nine NBA players topped that mark in 2017-18, and they combined to take a meager 49 attempts.
Shamet is a talented enough sniper that he should score a handful of points when he enters contests, but Philadelphia's backcourt depth will force that to happen infrequently. Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz, Jerryd Bayless and T.J. McConnell are all under contract for 2018-19, and it'll be tough for the incoming rookie to break into the rotation at the expense of players with more experience while the Sixers are attempting to compete for one of the top seeds in the Eastern Conference.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 3.9 points, 0.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.1 blocks
25. Moritz Wagner, PF/C, Los Angeles Lakers
6 of 32
School: Michigan
Age: 21
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 14.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 24.7 PER, 61.9 TS%, 130.92 TPA
Let's say Brook Lopez departs in free agency, leaving Ivica Zubac and Thomas Bryant as the only centers under contract with the Los Angeles Lakers. That's the easier position at which Moritz Wagner can earn playing time, considering Kyle Kuzma is locked in at the 4 even before a potential Julius Randle return.
And that's saying nothing of small-ball lineups.
Talented as Wagner may be, he'll have trouble carving out a regular role unless he improves substantially on the defensive end. That was a major focus of the Lakers' 2017-18 efforts, which saw them rise from No. 30 in defensive rating to No. 12 in points allowed per 100 possessions. Playing a glaring liability is antithetical to the intended direction of head coach Luke Walton, no matter how much Wagner's sharp-shooting prowess may appeal.
The Lakers should love the Michigan product's spot-up ability, especially because he thrived while playing with far less talented creators than Lonzo Ball. He can make an immediate pick-and-pop impact...assuming the Purple and Gold aren't already getting plenty of offensive production from Kuzma, Brandon Ingram and any free-agency additions. His passing is a plus as well, even if that wasn't necessarily reflected in his collegiate stat line and emerges more as a dearth of turnovers.
But he has to get on the floor to showcase those skills, and that's not going to happen frequently enough to make any All-Rookie noise. Lakers fans have to avoid getting overly excited about another late-first-round prospect, because Kuzma's success after coming off the board at No. 27 was more aberration than replicable trend.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 5.2 points, 2.5 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks
24. Anfernee Simons, PG, Portland Trail Blazers
7 of 32
School: IMG Academy
Age: 19
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: N/A
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: N/A
Anfernee Simons is one of the first round's most difficult players to project, if only because we don't have enough high-level data to make informed decisions. The 19-year-old reclassified to gain entry to the 2018 NBA draft even without suiting up in a single game above the high school level, which leaves his junior-year stat line from IMG Academy as his final set of numbers.
During the 2016-17 campaign, he averaged 23.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.8 steals and 0.5 blocks against overmatched competition, per MaxPreps.com. He turned the ball over just 1.3 times per game, shot 48.4 percent from the field, hit 39.7 percent of his triples and connected on 82.5 percent of his looks at the stripe.
Spoiler alert: NBA competition is a little tougher than what he faced with Bradenton, Florida, serving as his home base.
Simons should only play sporadically during his professional debut, instead spending much of his time hitting the weight room, studying film, building up good habits and going to work in the G League. He'll be able to score inefficiently when he does get onto the Rip City floor, but that should happen infrequently when he's blocked by Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and whichever veteran guards are acquired to provide experienced depth for an organization still looking to make playoff runs.
Patience, as is so often the case with non-lottery prospects, is key here.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 2.4 points, 0.8 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.1 blocks
23. Aaron Holiday, PG, Indiana Pacers
8 of 32
School: UCLA
Age: 21
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 20.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.2 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 21.1 PER, 60.9 TS%, 140.09 TPA
Though Aaron Holiday has his work cut out for him competing against Darren Collison and Cory Joseph for minutes at the point, he's talented enough to make an immediate impact off the bench. Between his defensive intensity and experience running pick-and-roll attacks, he'll prove ready to aid another playoff push for the Indiana Pacers.
Just don't expect eye-popping numbers.
Holiday can occasionally set up his teammates and should look comfortable running the second unit when the two incumbents need breathers. He can fit in next to either one and thrive in a spot-up role—one of his undersold skills that boosted his success levels at UCLA. He can also fill an unselfish job description that asks him to do little on the offensive end and maximize his energy as a point-preventing backcourt presence. His role can be amorphous, which lends itself to increased run during his inaugural season.
That's not to say Holiday will break into the Rookie of the Year race or immediately force lottery teams to regret passing on him with a top-14 pick. But he'll immediately begin to justify the selection Indiana spent by doing whatever the team asks, and that's valuable in and of itself.
At the very least, he should have a role and skill set conducive to challenging for one of the top steal rates among first-year players.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 8.1 points, 1.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks
22. Chander Hutchison, SG/SF, Chicago Bulls
9 of 32
School: Boise State
Age: 22
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 20.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 25.9 PER, 57.5 TS%, 134.19 TPA
Going into the 2018 NBA draft, the Chicago Bulls needed to find a rim-protecting presence they could pair with Lauri Markkanen and a high-scoring wing who could take some pressure off the increasingly muscled shoulders of the Finnish forward. They found both, but we'll focus on the former here.
With Justin Holiday, Denzel Valentine and Paul Zipser already under contract while Zach LaVine and David Nwaba could be re-signed in free agency, Chandler Hutchison doesn't have an immediate path to a starting gig at either wing spot. But the 6'7" prospect is still such a talented scoring prospect that the Bulls would be remiss to leave him gathering dust on the bench.
The Boise State standout is coming off a 2017-18 campaign for the Broncos in which he averaged 20.0 points while slashing 47.5/35.9/72.8. He's an athletic cutter with preternatural instincts moving toward the basket, and he can score both as a spot-up marksman and an off-the-bounce creator. The points should come whether he's playing a two-man game with a guard or tasked with creating for himself.
Hutchison won't push close to replicating his points-per-game average as a rookie, but he should be an efficient per-minute scorer off the Chicago bench who helps propel the team's offensive rating back toward respectability. If he can contribute in other areas, that'll just be gravy in the Windy City.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 6.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.2 blocks
21. Grayson Allen, SG, Utah Jazz
10 of 32
School: Duke
Age: 22
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 15.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.1 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 18.8 PER, 58.0 TS%, 218.65 TPA
The Utah Jazz still need offensive help.
Take a gander at their top per-game scorers from the 2017-18 season:
- Donovan Mitchell: 20.5 points per game
- Rodney Hood: 16.8 points per game (traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers during the season)
- Rudy Gobert: 13.5 points per game
- Ricky Rubio: 13.1 points per game
- Derrick Favors: 12.3 points per game (free agent)
That's...troubling. Though Utah's identity is steeped in its defensive ability, it still has to find complementary scorers to Mitchell. Gobert and Rubio can't serve as the biggest supporting threats, considering the former can't create looks for himself and the latter is an inconsistent shooter whose mere presence allows defenses to sag back and compress around the painted area.
Grayson Allen won't immediately displace any of those five, and it's unlikely he can earn enough playing time to average double figures. But the Duke product is a talented scorer who excels in spot-up situations, and he's going to the perfect team—one that has the defensive ability in the painted area to cover for the extreme amounts of dribble penetration he'll inevitably allow.
Don't trip over yourselves trying to predict scoring excellence from Allen as a rookie. But he'll get some buckets throughout the year while assisting a second unit that could use a go-to force when Mitchell is riding the pine.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 7.1 points, 1.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.0 blocks
20. Josh Okogie, SG, Minnesota Timberwolves
11 of 32
School: Georgia Tech
Age: 19
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 18.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.0 blocks
This isn't a knock on Josh Okogie's talent levels.
The Georgia Tech product is a gifted defender who can use his quick instincts and 7'0" wingspan to make an immediate impact in both on- and off-ball situations. Not only is he a focused stopper who can deny the ball to leading scoring threats scattered throughout the opposing roster, but he's a cerebral help defender who should tally plenty of deflections. If that's not enough, he could develop into a spot-up threat who earns that coveted "three-and-D" label.
He just won't do so as a rookie.
Minnesota Timberwolves head coach Tom Thibodeau basically refuses to play his second-stringers, and Okogie isn't going to carve out a starting role ahead of Andrew Wiggins or Jimmy Butler. No team allotted fewer minutes to backups in 2017-18, and the gap between the Wolves and the No. 29 Oklahoma City Thunder was nearly identical to the chasm between the Thunder and the No. 16 Orlando Magic.
Beyond that, Thibodeau might be even more historically averse to playing rookies.
Justin Patton was Minnesota's only first-year contributor in 2017-18, and he earned just four minutes per game. Kris Dunn played 17.1 minutes per game the year before that, but he was a No. 5 pick with much more pedigree than Okogie. During Thibodeau's Chicago tenure, Nikola Mirotic (20.2), Tony Snell (16.0) and Omer Asik (12.1) were the only rookies in double figures. None of them were teenagers.
Okogie isn't joining that club.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 3.5 points, 1.2 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks
19. Kevin Huerter, SG, Atlanta Hawks
12 of 32
School: Maryland
Age: 19
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 14.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.7 blocks
Most prospects taken outside the lottery aren't guaranteed minutes during their rookie campaigns, but Kevin Huerter seems to be an exception. He's a perfect fit for the intended Golden State Warriors 2.0 system new Atlanta Hawks head coach Lloyd Pierce seems to be implementing, and the depth chart stacks up in his favor.
This former Terrapin should immediately slot into his role as a backup shooting guard, but he could even enter the starting five if Kent Bazemore is traded—a strong possibility, given his two-way talents and the Hawks' apparent desire to get his long-term salary off the books. Either way, he'll be given a chance to show off what he can do as a floor-spacing wing.
Huerter won't be an ace defender or create many looks for himself, but he's an elite spot-up threat coming off a sophomore campaign in which he launched 5.5 attempts per game from beyond the rainbow and hit at a 41.7 percent clip. That's what Lloyd is looking for as he strives to compile his own version of the Splash Brothers in the Peach State.
This 19-year-old won't rack up rebounds, assists, steals or blocks. He will, however, put up his fair share of points in efficient fashion.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 7.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks
18. Lonnie Walker IV, SG, San Antonio Spurs
13 of 32
School: Miami
Age: 19
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 11.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks
Maybe you'll be disappointed that we're not projecting more from Lonnie Walker IV during his rookie season with the San Antonio Spurs.
It's not a knock on his long-term potential; it's just reality—a reality aided by the returns of Danny Green and Manu Ginobili that should make it even more difficult for a 19-year-old wing to earn major minutes under head coach Gregg Popovich. And for support, we can turn to another signal-caller.
Here's what Miami head coach Jim Larranaga told Jabari Young of the San Antonio Express-News about the young man he previously coached who was selected at No. 18. This is a long answer coming after a comparison to Green, but the full explanation is important:
"I compared him to Donovan Mitchell because Donovan is the hot name right now in the NBA.; [had] a Rookie of the Year type of season, and he was in our [conference]. He was at Louisville. We played against him for two years. I know his game very well. He’s [a bit] shorter than Lonnie, but they’re the same kind of athlete. They have the same kind of scoring mentally.
"The difference and I’ve made this very clear to everybody; the difference is Donovan Mitchell did not just go to high school. He went to prep school at [Brewster Academy], one of the premier prep schools in the country, and he played against Division I players every day. The competition in practice is probably better than what they get in every game. So, his preparation at [Brewster Academy] is far better than anything Lonnie would’ve ever experience before getting to the ACC. And Lonnie only played one year in the ACC whereas Donovan played two. So, in my estimation, at this point of Lonnie’s career, he’s two seasons behind where Donovan Mitchell was this year as an NBA rookie. So, I wouldn’t expect Lonnie just to go in and do what Donovan did. But I would expect him in two years to be where Donovan is."
Few are more optimistic about prospect development than prior coaching staffs, so the restraint here is more than a bit notable.
We'll follow suit.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 5.6 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks
17. Donte DiVincenzo, PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks
14 of 32
School: Villanova
Age: 21
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 13.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.2 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 20.9 PER, 60.8 TS%, 174.69 TPA
As Josh Cornelissen highlighted for Hoops Habit, Donte DiVincenzo could immediately become a useful scorer off the Milwaukee Bucks bench:
"Milwaukee was an inconsistent offensive team last season, and specifically struggled to produce offense when Giannis Antetokounmpo was off the court. The loss of Greg Monroe as a bench creator was felt acutely when players such as Thon Maker, Sterling Brown and Tony Snell were asked to generate offense.
"DiVincenzo can step in and help there from day one, creating shots for himself and for his teammates. While he won’t be able to run a one-man show, the Bucks don’t want that either, and he can be an efficient provider of a few buckets per game."
That's not an exaggeration.
If anything, it's underselling the Bucks' offensive woes when Antetokounmpo wasn't on the floor. They could only muster a 104.7 offensive rating from their bench in general (No. 16 among the league's 30 second units), and that number could keep dropping with Jabari Parker's potential departure as a restricted free agent (and Jason Terry's pending free agency) diminishing the depth even further.
But DiVincenzo is ready to step in as a solid scorer, operating in both on- and off-ball scenarios to make the most of his explosive athleticism and diverse point-producing capabilities. His 6'6" wingspan may limit the impact he can make with possession-ending defensive plays, but the flexibility he'll provide behind Eric Bledsoe, Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton will ensure a steady stream of valuable minutes.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 7.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks
16. Zhaire Smith, SG/SF, Philadelphia 76ers
15 of 32
School: Texas Tech
Age: 19
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 11.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.1 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 23.0 PER, 61.8 TS%, 210.07 TPA
Can you say athletic explosions?
Zhaire Smith should immediately settle in as one of the NBA's highest-flyers, and he understands how to turn that physical superiority into actual production. Though his jumper is shaky and might require some tweaking before it becomes a weapon for the Philadelphia 76ers, his intelligent cutting alone will allow him to earn some easy buckets off pinpoint feeds from Ben Simmons.
And then we come to the defensive end.
Smith was one of the NCAA's best stoppers throughout his final season at Texas Tech, wreaking havoc in passing lanes, coming over from the weak side to block shots and buckling down in on-ball scenarios. That's not going to change in the pros, considering his perfect fit in Philadelphia's switching, swarming schemes. He'll be useful from day one for head coach Brett Brown, given his ability to cover multiple positions and serve as a nontraditional secondary rim-protector.
This 19-year-old will be more valuable than his per-game line might indicate, since that won't capture his hustle plays and ability to serve as a glue guy. But he does have an outside shot to become one of the few players capable of averaging at least one tick in each of the five major boxes—something only six qualified rookies (Shane Battier, Andrei Kirilenko, Kenyon Martin, Jamario Moon, Nerlens Noel and Lamar Odom) have done since Y2K.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 6.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.8 blocks
15. Troy Brown Jr., SF, Washington Wizards
16 of 32
School: Oregon
Age: 18
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 11.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.2 blocks
Bradley Beal has played over 34 minutes per game during each of the last two seasons and is coming off the first All-Star berth of his impressive young career. Otto Porter Jr. has averaged 31.5 minutes per game during the last three seasons and is a vital part of the Washington Wizards with his ability to chip in across the board. Then, you can throw in Kelly Oubre Jr., Jodie Meeks, big lineups with Markieff Morris at the 3 and small-ball outfits.
What does that leave for Troy Brown Jr. as the 18-year-old prepares for his rookie go-round in the nation's capital?
The answer is simple: not much.
And that's fine. As is the case with so many other first-year players, an unlikely path to major minutes isn't a career death knell. Far from it.
"The natural instincts are there," Wizards general manager Ernie Grunfeld said about his team's first-round pick, per the Washington Post's Candace Buckner. "I think this is a great situation for him because if he has the opportunity, we feel like he can go in there and get minutes and help us. But we don't need to have him come in right away and be a difference-maker."
If anything, that lack of pressure should help Brown's development, especially if it gives him the ability to slot into the G League lineup and get some on-court experience against fellow professionals. Intriguing as his ability to distribute from the wings may be, the rest of his game needs maturing.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 4.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.1 blocks
14. Michael Porter Jr., SF, Denver Nuggets
17 of 32
School: Missouri
Age: 19
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 10.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 20.0 PER, 43.8 TS%, minus-4.46 TPA
If people tell you they know what to expect from Michael Porter Jr. during his rookie season with the Denver Nuggets, they're lying to you.
Though he has enough upside to establish himself as the most talented player in this potentially star-studded rookie class, his troubling back history caused his draft-day free-fall to the Nuggets, who hadn't even met with him or considered the possibility that he'd be available at No. 14. We only have 53 minutes of collegiate action to evaluate him, and he wasn't even fully healthy for portions of that minimal run.
"Teams have been impressed with Porter in interviews. He was delightful with reporters on Wednesday," USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt reported before the prospect pageant. "But team that drafts him will be super cautious putting him on the court in live action. Sitting him for a majority, or all, of 2018-19 season is a real possibility."
That hasn't changed now that he's officially a member of the Nuggets. For the time being, projecting anything from this 19-year-old would be irresponsible.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: N/A
13. Jerome Robinson, PG/SG, Los Angeles Clippers
18 of 32
School: Boston College
Age: 21
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 20.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.1 blocks
Though Jerome Robinson's game is impressive, he was a reach at No. 13. Even with impressive scoring ability that allows him to drop in triples from spot-up and pull-up situations, attack the basket with aplomb and draw plenty of fouls, his overall value is dragged down by his woeful defense, carelessness with the ball and limited passing skills.
But that's not the primary concern here. Robinson is talented enough to justify the lottery pick spent on his services.
Carving out playing time is the bigger issue.
Now that Milos Teodosic has opted into his contracts with the Los Angeles Clippers, the backcourt includes him, Lou Williams, Patrick Beverley, Jawun Evans and Sindarius Thornwell. That was before the Clippers spent their first lottery pick on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who we'll get to soon enough. Even if Robinson can settle in as an undersized 3, he'd be competing with Danilo Gallinari, Tobias Harris, Wesley Johnson and Sam Dekker.
Again, this isn't an indictment of Robinson's skills. But it's almost impossible to see him garnering enough minutes to make significant noise in the All-Rookie competitions.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 4.8 points, 1.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.0 blocks
12. Miles Bridges, SF, Charlotte Hornets
19 of 32
School: Michigan State
Age: 20
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 17.1 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 22.6 PER, 57.2 TS%, 167.37 TPA
We still don't know what direction the Charlotte Hornets are taking for the 2018-19 campaign, and the one they choose could dramatically impact Miles Bridges' role.
The trade of Dwight Howard to the Brooklyn Nets initially seemed like an indication they were starting to reshuffle pieces and embark upon a full-scale rebuild, but no secondary moves have supported that line of thinking. They didn't take a point guard in the first round, so Kemba Walker's importance to this roster remains obvious—a sign Charlotte does intend to run it back and compete for a back-end playoff berth in the Eastern Conference.
We're assuming the latter route is the one to which Charlotte sticks, and that means Bridges will function as a high-end backup during his rookie season, competing with the incumbent forwards for a chance to earn more minutes under new head coach James Borrego.
Bridges will eventually be able to contribute in virtually every area, which will help him post higher across-the-board numbers. But he should settle in as a spot-up threat who spaces the floor around Walker during his rookie season, especially because defenders will also have to remain wary of his explosive cutting toward the hoop. Malleability is a positive here, but it won't manifest itself as big-time production until Charlotte is ready to hand him a bigger role, which it likely won't do until too much of the 2018-19 campaign is in the past rather than the future.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 8.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.5 blocks
11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Los Angeles Clippers
20 of 32
School: Kentucky
Age: 19
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 14.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.5 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 21.2 PER, 57.8 TS%, 200.35 TPA
The incumbent guards covered when dissecting Jerome Robinson's role will likely prevent Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from making any Rookie of the Year pushes, but his skill set should ensure him significant minutes, whether alongside a healthy Patrick Beverley or as a second-unit running mate for Lou Williams.
Point guards don't typically get labeled "three-and-D" contributors, but this Kentucky product could soon prove an exception.
Standing 6'6" and towering over most opposing 1s, Gilgeous-Alexander has the physical tools necessary to thrive as a stopper. He constantly looked the part of an aggressive defender for the Wildcats, flitting around the half-court set to switch onto tough assignments and jump into passing lanes, never letting his focus or intensity levels slip. The three-point shooting isn't as guaranteed, but the 19-year-old did hit 40.4 percent of his deep attempts as a freshman while supporting that accuracy with an 81.7 percent clip at the free-throw stripe.
Head coach Doc Rivers should already be imagining the preventing possibilities of a backcourt comprised of Beverley and Gilgeous-Alexander. He should be dreaming of the latter assuming tougher assignments while Williams is freed to focus even more exclusively on the scoring end.
That defined skill gives this incoming 1-guard the upper hand in the battle for playing time that will surely exist with Robinson, even if it might not show up in too many of his counting stats.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 6.3 points, 1.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.2 blocks
10. Mikal Bridges, SF, Phoenix Suns
21 of 32
School: Villanova
Age: 21
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 17.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.1 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 26.8 PER, 65.5 TS%, 275.97 TPA
Yes, Josh Jackson and TJ Warren could get in the way of Mikal Bridges' quest for a big role in the desert. But this particular small forward is too talented to be relegated to the bench for the majority of games, especially because his two-way skills should mesh perfectly with the Phoenix Suns' other talents.
Lest we forget, this organization literally wound up finishing dead last in both offensive and defensive rating. Bridges can help on both sides, even if he won't be a third nationally recognized star alongside Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. Think more of Otto Porter Jr.—an underrated Washington Wizards commodity who may be every bit as important as John Wall and Bradley Beal, even without earning nearly as much attention.
Bridges will flirt with a steal and a block every night, depending on the matchup and the defensive tasks handed to him by first-year head coach Igor Kokoskov. He won't make much of an impact on the glass or as a facilitator, but he'll pick up that slack by excelling as a spot-up marksman who can provide the necessary spacing for the interior assaults of Ayton and the slashing habits of Booker and Warren.
Flexibility is the name of the game here, both in terms of positions and roles as this 21-year-old flits between forward spots and contributes in myriad manners. And that's great news for a young team that needs across-the-board improvement.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 9.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks
9. Kevin Knox, SF, New York Knicks
22 of 32
School: Kentucky
Age: 18
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 15.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 17.0 PER, 55.6 TS%, 102.44 TPA
Did Kevin Knox go at No. 9 more because of upside than proven production after his brief tenure as a Kentucky Wildcat? Yep. Is he still only 18 years old, making him one of the youngest prospects in this year's rookie class? You betcha.
He could very well blossom into an all-around contributor once he improves his defensive focus and learns to score in more manners than just attacking the hoop and relying on his athletic superiority. We're already seeing hints of a tantalizing jumper that could make him a 20-points-per-night threat in his prime. But he's (obviously) not there yet.
That isn't stopping the New York Knicks from stoking the flames. Ian Begley of ESPN.com has already reported on Knox's potential role: "[Head coach] David Fizdale says there is 'absolutely' a chance that Kevin Knox can start at small forward as a 19-year-old rookie."
That's not necessarily a bad thing. Frank Ntilikina is still learning the ropes as he heads into his second season in the Association. Kristaps Porzingis is rehabbing his ACL tear, and the exact date of his return is, as of yet, unknown. The Knicks don't have to operate under the pretenses that they're immediately competing for a top seed in the Eastern Conference and can instead let Knox learn as he's thrown into the fire, allowing him to post elevated scoring totals that will mask his subpar efficiency levels.
Count on Knox becoming the class' most overhyped member when casual fans cite his per-game scoring average with no other context provided, though he'll be plenty capable of growing into that reputation with a few seasons under his belt.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 9.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.2 blocks
8. Collin Sexton, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers
23 of 32
School: Alabama
Age: 19
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 19.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.1 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 23.5 PER, 56.7 TS%, 112.59 TPA
In the interest of full disclosure, we're splitting the difference here.
If LeBron James remains with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Collin Sexton likely won't be able to average 11.2 points and 3.5 assists per game—numbers only Kyrie Irving (twice) and Dwyane Wade (once) have matched or exceeded while suiting up alongside the four-time MVP during his eight-year Finals streak. Given James' ball-commandeering habits, a rookie isn't going to have the touches necessary to pile up those kinds of numbers.
At the same time, he won't average "only" 11.2 points and 3.5 assists if James departs for the Houston Rockets, Philadelphia 76ers, Los Angeles Lakers, Guangdong Southern Tigers, Indiana Pacers, or...well, you get the point that his options are just about limitless this summer.
Without James, the Cavaliers are a lottery squad. And that means Sexton should get a chance to run the show with autonomy, dishing out dimes—or, more likely, potential dimes—to a lackluster supporting cast when he's not attacking the basket and putting up big-time scoring tallies with plenty of missed shots along the way.
We just don't yet know which scenario will come to pass, hence the hedge.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 11.2 points, 2.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.1 blocks
7. Wendell Carter Jr., PF/C, Chicago Bulls
24 of 32
School: Duke
Age: 19
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 13.5 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.1 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 28.2 PER, 62.8 TS%, 236.94 TPA
Chicago Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg already has quite a few nice things to say about Wendell Carter Jr., as relayed by the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson:
"You have a modern-day big with Wendell. I've talked a lot to Coach K [Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski] in the last week about the different ways he utilized Wendell's skill set. They ran a lot of high-low with him and [Marvin] Bagley with Wendell out on the floor making the pass.
"The other thing I was very impressed with as the year went on was his ability to stretch the floor with his 3-point shot. He shot above 41 percent from the 3-point line. He can playmake, put the ball on the floor. And he'll help us defensively. He's an excellent rim protector."
Talk about checking all the boxes.
Hoiberg isn't wrong. Carter is that versatile a prospect and an ideal fit alongside Lauri Markkanen. So even if he opens the year ceding starts to Robin Lopez, he'll still play plentiful minutes with the starting crew to begin developing a rhythm with the franchise's other building blocks. And much like Al Horford, with whom this more athletic big man can reasonably be compared, his value will go far beyond mere counting stats.
Even still, our projected line is a difficult one to earn because it requires contributions in virtually every facet of the game. Throughout NBA history, only 20 men have posted the following per-game stats during a qualified rookie season.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 8.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.3 blocks
6. Mohamed Bamba, C, Orlando Magic
25 of 32
School: Texas
Age: 20
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 12.9 points, 10.5 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 3.7 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 28.3 PER, 59.3 TS%, 169.72 TPA
If you're expecting Mohamed Bamba to score a lot of points as a rookie, you're going to be sorely disappointed.
The 20-year-old big man could only muster 17.1 points per 40 minutes as a freshman at Texas operating in limited stints, and he won't come close to 40 minutes per contest during his inaugural go-round with the Orlando Magic. That would be true even if Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo were both jettisoned from the roster, clearing the way to an immediate starting nod at the 5.
Once Bamba's three-point stroke becomes more reality than wishful thinking, he could morph into a significant scoring threat out of the frontcourt. But during this first go-round, he'll be more of a traditional big who occasionally spaces the floor, making rebounding and shot-swatting his primary statistical contributions.
Fortunately, he's pretty darn good in both those areas.
Only one qualified NCAA player last year had a total rebounding percentage north of 20 and a block percentage of at least 13: Bamba. Expand the scope to encompass everything from 2009-10 to the present, and only three more players make the cut, none of whom played in power conferences.
Bamba's two primary skills are legit, and they're going to translate right away.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 6.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.8 blocks
5. Trae Young, PG, Atlanta Hawks
26 of 32
School: Oklahoma
Age: 19
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 27.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 8.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 28.3 PER, 58.5 TS%, 235.52 TPA
"I think Dennis [Schroder] will be a tremendous role model. We've talked already about him and Trae [Young] not only coexisting, but him being a leader for Trae and helping him on the court," new Atlanta Hawks head coach Lloyd Pierce shared, per Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "Dennis has had a lot of success in the league and he's a guy that still has a lot of growing to go, and Trae is just trying to follow in those footsteps."
If that's the case, we're being a bit aggressive with our projections. But if the more likely scenario comes to pass and the Hawks wind up dealing their disgruntled floor general, whether during the offseason or after Trae Young has begun to establish himself as an offensive stud, this former Oklahoma Sooner will post some explosive numbers as a rookie.
Young might not be an efficient scorer during his rookie campaign, even as he's surrounded by players capable of drawing more attention than his teammates ever did in Norman. He's going to be a traffic cone on defense, ceding one easy bucket after another and exposing his lack of switchability on the preventing end.
But Young can shoot the ball from all areas of the half-court set, both off the bounce and in spot-up situations. His distributing flair might be even more impressive, and he's coming off a season in which he paced the NCAA in assists.
Anything less than gaudy offensive stats would be a horrible disappointment, regardless of Schroder's involvement.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 18.1 points, 2.4 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.1 blocks
4. Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C, Memphis Grizzlies
27 of 32
School: Michigan State
Age: 18
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 10.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.6 steals, 3.0 blocks
The Memphis Grizzlies need players who are ready to contribute immediately. You can forgive them for taking a shot on Jaren Jackson Jr. at No. 4 because of his immense upside, but it would be more troubling if they immediately began to hand him major minutes that came at the expense of the far more established Marc Gasol.
Jackson should be used sporadically during his rookie season, and the Grizzlies shouldn't trust him to serve as a focal point on offense. That part of his game is still growing, though his defensive chops give him a lofty floor and make him useful from day one.
Memphis should hand Jackson roughly 20 minutes per game off the pine, either calling his number when Gasol needs a breather or going with an oversized frontcourt that features him at the 4 and asks him to expedite the process of developing a workable jumper. Regardless of the situation, he'll be able to chip in with strong work on the boards and plenty of rim-protection habits that save Gasol some wear and tear on the interior.
Among the top 10 picks, Jackson might be the longest of shots for Rookie of the Year—more because of the situation in which he landed than anything else. He also might have as much long-term potential as anyone. Those ideas don't have to be mutually exclusive.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 10.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.6 blocks
3. Luka Doncic, PG/SG, Dallas Mavericks
28 of 32
Team: Real Madrid
Age: 19
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 14.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.4 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 22.8 PER, 59.3 TS%
Unlike most other first-rounders, we've already seen what Luka Doncic can do against fellow professionals. The EuroLeague opponents he faced while working for Real Madrid may not be as talented as his upcoming NBA adversaries, but he's already endured the rigors of a lengthy season and proved himself not just a solid contributor, but also an MVP—the youngest in history.
The 2017-18 line you can see above is already impressive, and it came while Doncic played only 25.1 minutes per game. Imagine what might happen if the Dallas Mavericks immediately entrusted him with a starting spot alongside Dennis Smith Jr., paving the way for him to earn 30 or more minutes per night. Per 30 minutes, he already averaged 17.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.5 blocks.
Of course, those numbers are inflated because of the easier competition. But conversely, Doncic will also be playing alongside Smith, Dirk Nowitzki, Harrison Barnes and the rest of a crew that's far more talented than his running mates at Real Madrid. They'll draw away defensive attention, no longer allowing for the traps that greeted him at half court far too frequently. They'll also convert more of his brilliant feeds.
Given his skill set, immediate path to playing time and international pedigree, Doncic should be a shoo-in to at least finish in the Rookie of the Year conversation.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 16.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks
2. Marvin Bagley III, PF/C, Sacramento Kings
29 of 32
School: Duke
Age: 19
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 21.0 points, 11.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.9 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 30.6 PER, 64.3 TS%, 210.68 TPA
The Sacramento Kings needed to find a go-to scorer to pair with De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic and their hordes of young but questionable talents. They found one in Marvin Bagley III.
Defense will be an issue for the Duke product, but he's the total package as a point-producing threat. He should immediately become a starter for the downtrodden franchise and do his darnedest to elevate the squad up the offensive-rating leaderboard with a healthy mix of perimeter exploits and bruising finishes on the interior.
The reigning Player of the Year in the ACC, Bagley averaged 21.0 points per game during his lone season with the Blue Devils, and he did so while slashing 61.4/39.7/62.7. That last number hints at potential struggles with his jumper (as do his mechanics), but his touch around the basket, comfort taking spot-up looks and excellence out of the pick-and-roll give him a great baseline as he enters the Association.
We're not talking about an empty volume scorer here.
Bagley should similarly thrive on the glass, though the other talents in Sacramento could eat away at some of his opportunities, especially when the team has no choice but to roll out multiple true bigs in old-school lineups necessitated by the frontcourt-heavy roster composition. He'll be a scorer first and foremost, but that's not where his production should stop.
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 17.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.6 blocks
1. Deandre Ayton, C, Phoenix Suns
30 of 32
School: Arizona
Age: 19
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 20.1 points, 11.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.9 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 32.6 PER, 65.0 TS%, 221.42 TPA
No prospect is ever a lock for stardom, even if some feel like sure things.
Deandre Ayton seemingly falls into that can't-miss category because of his awe-inspiring blend of offensive tools, size (7'0"), explosive athleticism and shooting touch that allows him to find nylon from all over the court. Whether he's banging around on the blocks or stepping out to the arc, he can get buckets.
But risks still exist.
Ayton's defensive numbers weren't particularly impressive during his lone season at Arizona, and he often appeared to lose focus—perhaps a dangerous sign for his development or maybe just a testament to how much better he was than the competition. FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projection system also lists a scary group of players as his best comparisons at this early stage. In order from most to least similar: Jahlil Okafor, Blake Griffin, Greg Oden, Anthony Bennett, Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, Karl-Anthony Towns, Derrick Williams, Jabari Parker and Julius Randle.
If you're a Phoenix Suns fan, I'm not trying to scare you. I promise. I'm just trying to temper the expectations because it's easy to fall into the trap of believing Ayton is rapidly going to average at least 20 points and 10 rebounds while currying some All-Star favor in the stacked Western Conference.
Of course, we're still expecting big things.
We've watched his tape and studied his numbers. How could we not?
Predicted 2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 17.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.3 blocks
Projected Rookie Leaders
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Points per Game
- Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks: 18.1
- Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns: 17.9
- Marvin Bagley III, Sacramento Kings: 17.4
- Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks: 16.7
- Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers: 11.2
Rebounds per Game
- Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns: 8.3
- Marvin Bagley III, Sacramento Kings: 7.1
- Wendell Carter Jr., Chicago Bulls: 6.1
- Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks: 5.9
- Jared Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies: 5.5
Assists per Game
- Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks: 5.9
- Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks: 5.1
- Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers: 3.5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Los Angeles Clippers: 2.7
- Aaron Holiday, Indiana Pacers: 2.1
Steals per Game
- Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks: 1.2
- Zhaire Smith, Philadelphia 76ers: 0.9
- Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks: 0.8
- Mikal Bridges, Phoenix Suns: 0.8
- Wendell Carter Jr., Chicago Bulls: 0.7
Blocks per Game
- Mohamed Bamba, Orlando Magic: 1.8
- Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies: 1.6
- Wendell Carter Jr., Chicago Bulls: 1.3
- Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns: 1.3
- Robert Williams III, Boston Celtics: 0.8
Projected Rookie of the Year Favorites
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What is this not?
As explained in last year's edition, it's not a scientific look at this year's first-round picks, as we're not running any regressions or factoring efficiency into the rankings. Plus, no second-round selections are included, which is a flaw in and of itself.
It's also not a peek into the long-term futures of these players. Some will develop in more expeditious fashion than others, and expected playing time in 2018-19 alone is heavily factored into these scores.
So, what is this?
Below, you can see a quick look at how all 29 first-round picks expected to log NBA minutes in 2018-19 should stack up as rookies.
Every selection received a z-score for each of the five per-game stats we've been going over (the number of standard deviations above or below the average for that stat, based on all rookie projections). Then we summed the five z-scores for each player, and that tally served as their Rookie of the Year score.
With that, we can provide an initial, non-scientific look at how the first-round prospects other than Michael Porter Jr. will stack up:
- Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks: 9.02
- Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns: 6.18
- Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks: 5.64
- Wendell Carter Jr., Chicago Bulls: 4.31
- Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies: 3.72
- Mohamed Bamba, Orlando Magic: 2.69
- Marvin Bagley III, Sacramento Kings: 2.52
- Zhaire Smith, Philadelphia 76ers: 1.56
- Mikal Bridges, Phoenix Suns: 1.09
- Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers: 0.98
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Los Angeles Clippers: 0.16
- Donte DiVincenzo, Milwaukee Bucks: minus-0.11
- Kevin Huerter, Atlanta Hawks: minus-0.29
- Miles Bridges, Charlotte Hornets: minus-0.57
- Aaron Holiday, Indiana Pacers: minus-0.66
- Chandler Hutchison, Chicago Bulls: minus-0.81
- Troy Brown Jr., Washington Wizards: minus-0.89
- Grayson Allen, Utah Jazz: minus-1.18
- Jacob Evans, Golden State Warriors: minus-1.2
- Kevin Knox, New York Knicks: minus-1.22
- Lonnie Walker IV, San Antonio Spurs: minus-2.08
- Robert Williams III, Boston Celtics: minus-2.47
- Moritz Wagner, Los Angeles Lakers: minus-2.64
- Josh Okogie, Minnesota Timberwolves: minus-2.81
- Omari Spellman, Atlanta Hawks: minus-3.54
- Dzanan Musa, Brooklyn Nets: minus-3.87
- Landry Shamet, Philadelphia 76ers: minus-3.96
- Jerome Robinson, Los Angeles Clippers: minus-4.35
- Anfernee Simons, Portland Trail Blazers: minus-5.23
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats courtesy of Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com.
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