UFC 225: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
UFC 225 is upon us with the year's deepest card. The event emanates from Chicago at the United Center on Saturday. Atop that mountain of fisticuffs sits two intriguing title bouts.
In the main event, Robert Whittaker defends the UFC middleweight title against Yoel Romero. It is a rematch of their 2017 bid to claim the UFC interim belt that Whittaker barely won on the scorecards. And welterweights compete in the co-main event for their interim strap as former lightweight king Rafael Dos Anjos tries to become a two-division champion against Colby Covington.
Oh, and there is a man by the name of CM Punk on the card as well. The former WWE star gets his second try at a UFC victory against Mike Jackson.
As always, Matthew Ryder, Steven Rondina, Scott Harris and Nathan McCarter are here to break down the five bouts on the main card and give you their predictions.
Who emerges with gold around their waist? Who takes the next steps up the rung in their respective divisions? Let's find out from the crew with the UFC 225 staff predictions.
CM Punk vs. Mike Jackson
1 of 5
Matthew Ryder
I have to confess two things: I fancy myself something of an expert of the MMA career of CM Punk, and I have greatly enjoyed everything about it. I've found it completely fascinating, both that it happened at all and how it's played out. I'm probably open to paying for this fight, and maybe even one or two more in his career, irrespective of how he shows himself Saturday.
Am I an idiot? Likely. Am I such an idiot as to pick Punk to win against Mike Jackson? Nope.
Jackson, TKO, Round 1
Steven Rondina
Watch the training footage that was spliced into the UFC's trailer for this fight. Really watch it closely. It's not a flattering side-by-side for Punk. Couple that with the huge distraction of defending himself in court during fight week, and the outlook is bleak for the ex-pro wrestler.
Jackson, TKO, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
Let's focus on Jackson for a second. He is an admitted MMA hobbyist. He's a photographer. He's a longtime friend of UFC matchmaker Mick Maynard. This will be his second fight as a pro, both in the UFC, and both related to Punk (his first loss came in a bout with Mickey Gall to determine Punk's first opponent).
This is nothing whatsoever against Jackson, but it says everything about Punk. The UFC is doing backflips to get him a win and keep the Punk gravy train rolling. We'll see how it goes. But Punk, who's 39, isn't getting any younger or less injury-plagued. Jackson puts him down.
Jackson, submission, Rd. 1
Nathan McCarter
I picked CM Punk to win his debut on principle. Everyone was counting him out without ever having seen him perform. Well, now I've seen him. Still, I'll take a flier on Punk. Why? Mickey Gall believes in him (h/t MMAFighting.com's Ariel Helwani). The man who fought both knows better than I.
Punk, submission, Rd. 2
Andrei Arlovski vs. Tai Tuivasa
2 of 5
Ryder
Tuivasa is probably the pick here, given that people have been eulogizing Arlovski and his career intermittently since about 2011. Yet The Pitbull has shown time and again that he's not going quietly into the night, and he's won two in a row after dropping five straight prior to that. Even so, it's nearly impossible to imagine a young buck with a cast-iron chin faltering in a bout he's being set up to win.
Tuivasa, KO, Round 1
Rondina
Honestly, I'm feeling Arlovski in this one. The veteran heavyweight has a soft chin, but he's not losing to fighters outside the cream of the crop. Tuivasa might be part of that class, but he's not quite established enough to get me to buy in.
Arlovski, TKO, Rd. 2
Harris
Once again Arlovski is teed up as cannon fodder for a big hitter. He's defied the odds in his last two, defeating Junior Albini and Stefan Struve. But honestly, those two opponents were more bark than bite, and Tuivasa is one of the hardest hitters in the entire UFC. This could get ugly fast.
Tuivasa, KO, Rd. 1
McCarter
I pick against Arlovski a lot. Why? I don't trust his chin, and this is the heavyweight division. Same holds true here. Tuivasa's big power puts Arlovski to sleep.
Tuivasa, KO, Rd. 1
Holly Holm vs. Megan Anderson
3 of 5
Ryder
Holm is 36, and Anderson is the up-and-coming heir apparent to featherweight greatness. People think she could be the one to derail Cris Cyborg, but here's the thing: She's never seen anyone like Holm, who is among the top female combat athletes ever.
Look for Holm to stick to the outside, pick Anderson apart and deliver a crushing defeat for those who thought she might be on her way to the top of the UFC's 145-pound class.
Holm, unanimous decision
Rondina
I'm still not completely sold on Megan Anderson as some kind of blue-chip prospect, so it probably goes without saying that I'm not sold on her as an established talent capable of beating a former UFC champion. I'm expecting Holm to manage Anderson's size and out-land her en route to a forgettable (but clean) decision win.
Holm, unanimous decision
Harris
Holm needs a win in the worst way, and it's a shame for her and her fans that she has to go for it against a relatively unknown but quite talented UFC newcomer. Holm will ply her usual game plan, which involves circling. Lots and lots of circling. Hopefully she mixes in a few kicks this time as well.
Anderson is a large and dangerous striker who will take it to Holm. This is a featherweight bout, with the winner likely facing Cyborg. Holm was the first fighter to take Cyborg the distance since 2008, but not many people want to see that again. Anderson uses her aggressiveness to pull the upset and make a strong case to face the GOAT of women's MMA.
Anderson, TKO, Rd. 3
McCarter
I'm not as sold on Anderson either, but she has progressed a lot in the past two years. Ultimately, she looks better than she is because she is one of two legitimately skilled 145-pound fighters in the world. It's her and Cyborg. That's why bantamweights like Holm get title shots in this "division." I'll take Anderson here because her length and striking power will be enough to win two of the three rounds. If it were five, I might have picked Holm.
Anderson, unanimous decision
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Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Colby Covington
4 of 5
Ryder
I'd call Covington polarizing, but I feel like his shtick isn't drawing enough attention for people to care in either direction. Dos Anjos is criminally underrated and a far cry from anyone Covington has seen on his way to this (undeserved) shot at the (totally unnecessary) interim welterweight belt. He's going to style on Chaos in this one.
Dos Anjos, TKO, Round 2
Rondina
Either Covington will manage to push Dos Anjos against the cage for three of five rounds or he's going to lose this one. That's a possibility, sure, but I'm expecting the Brazilian to be able to outwork and outthink Covington en route to a clean decision win.
Dos Anjos, unanimous decision
Harris
Here's hoping we don't need a Covington lineal title shot to see him get his comeuppance. This guy isn't a clever, self-aware, pro-wrestling-style heel in the Chael Sonnen mode, as many have suggested. It's not a "tactic." He's just a dime-a-dozen blowhard with bad opinions.
As for the fight, Covington has a real shot. Takedowns are what drive his game; Dos Anjos has a good-not-great 66 percent takedown defense percentage, per FightMetric. Dos Anjos may have the advantage in every other area, and his pressure game could throw off Covington, who's used to being the bully. Things get worse for Covington if Dos Anjos works his leg kicks, which is what I believe will happen. Back to the midcard for Covington.
Dos Anjos, TKO, Rd. 2
McCarter
I'm not at all enamored with Covington's personality either, but being objective in picking this fight makes me lean toward him.
Dos Anjos has acclimated well to the division, but he's still going to be undersized against Covington. Add in Covington's wrestling ability and we appear to be in store for a lackluster 25-minute welterweight affair. I'm surprised I'm the only one taking him here, but I'll stand alone on the island of misfit toys.
Covington, unanimous decision
Robert Whittaker vs. Yoel Romero
5 of 5
Ryder
Whittaker has a win over Romero already, and he seems to be a nightmare style matchup for the Cuban—which is weird, because Romero has been a nightmare style matchup for pretty much everybody else in his combat sports career.
The Aussie sticks and moves, uses his cardio advantage and wears Romero down over five rounds for a convincing win.
Whittaker, unanimous decision
Rondina
There's a chance that Romero can do that thing when he analyzes an opponent's style, finds an opening and smashes him to pieces in the blink of an eye, but I'm not expecting it. Whittaker is good enough standing to avoid any damaging blitzes and will likely deliver a performance similar to what he managed when he defeated Romero almost a year ago at UFC 213.
Whittaker, unanimous decision
Harris
If I pick against Romero, I feel like I'm going to be swiftly and sweepingly ankle-picked into oblivion by some supernatural force. Do you think Romero can see me? One of the strongest and strangest people on the UFC roster has plenty of wins in him even at the age of 41.
But Whittaker has legs (in the cardio sense), and he knows how to use them to stay clear of the big guy's attacks. Prepare yourself for a repeat of their first encounter. Please don't hurt me, Mr. Romero.
Whittaker, unanimous decision
McCarter
This is really a clean sweep for the champion? Color me shocked. I don't think a unanimous vote for Whittaker means we are discounting the clear and present danger that is Yoel Romero, but it should indicate how highly we think of Robert Whittaker.
I'll deviate in one instance—Whittaker gets the finish. Once in the fourth round, Whittaker's pace will have tired Romero more than usual. That's when the flurries arrive, connect and wilt the challenger. Whittaker puts a stamp on his first title defense.
Whittaker, TKO, Rd. 4
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