NBA Finals 2018: Warriors vs. Cavs Game 1 Vegas Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions
If Vegas oddsmakers are right, the Golden State Warriors should bulldoze the Cleveland Cavaliers in their fourth consecutive meeting in the NBA Finals.
The Warriors are up to -900 favorites (bet $900 to win $100), according to OddsShark, with the Cavs down to +675 underdogs. Flash back to October, and prognosticators had Golden State as a +100 favorite with Cleveland not too far behind at +500.
Of course, that's before anyone knew that Isaiah Thomas would flop as a Kyrie Irving replacement, Cleveland would need to overhaul its supporting cast at the trade deadline and Kevin Love would finish the conference finals in concussion protocol.
So much has changed since then. Even if this is the series we expected before the regular season began, it's not exactly what we thought we would see for much of the last few months.
With Game 1 slated for Thursday (9 p.m. ET on ABC), let's examine some odds and prop bets for that contest and the series at large, plus offer predictions about how we think they'll go.
Game 1 Spread: Warriors -12
On first glance, this looks high. Game 1s can be feel-out contests for both sides, and the Cavs will go into it with an extra day of rest. This is tied for the largest spread in a Finals game since 1991, per ESPN Stats & Information.
But the longer you consider this specific matchup, the more it feels like this isn't enough points.
So far this postseason, Golden State is 3-0 in series openers with an average margin of victory of 18.7 points. Game 1 of last year's Finals was a 22-point Warriors win.
Game 2 was a 19-point Golden State triumph. Irving wasn't great in those contests (40 percent shooting), but his average of 21.5 points seems unlikely to be matched by one of LeBron James' teammates this time.
Oh, and the average Warriors-Cavs tilt since Kevin Durant joined the party is a Golden State win that would easily cover:
Give the points, grab the Dubs and watch how high the spread climbs for Game 2.
Prediction: Warriors by 16
Game 1 Over/Under: 214 Points
It's tempting to say the over is a lock.
The Warriors and Cavs had two of this season's top-five offenses and neither defended at the same level. Golden State tied for eighth in defensive efficiency, while Cleveland was all the way down to 29th.
It's possible the Cavs have enough misfires for Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Co. to splash their way well beyond the midpoint of the 214 total. Tack on the absurd groove James is in (34 points on 54.2 percent shooting, 8.8 assists per game in the playoffs) and the potential for Cleveland's shooters to catch fire, and there's a chance these clubs blow past that number.
But at this juncture, the under looks like the better option.
Cleveland's offense is basically a one-man, ball-pounding army. The Cavs are averaging 6.21 fewer possessions per 48 minutes (93.85) than they did during the regular season (100.06). That will limit the chances for a Golden State attack that hasn't been as crisp as we'd expect. The Warriors, who averaged a league-best 113.5 points, have only topped 101 points in two of their last five outings.
Prediction: Under, 205 Points
Series Length
This comes courtesy of OddsChecker.com and leaves little hope for a lengthy tussle.
- Four Games 11/5
- Five Games 29/20
- Six Games 18/5
- Seven Games 21/5
The first three Finals encounters featured series lengths of (in chronological order) six, seven and five games. Perhaps that means we're due for a sweep?
Frankly, it's no surprise to see five games as the favorite. That's perhaps the best way to balance between acknowledging Golden State's colossal talent advantage and respecting James enough to give him a game for being the King.
Prediction: Warriors in Five
Finals MVP
Three different players in this series have earned a Finals MVP during their previous three encounters—Andre Iguodala (2015), James (2016) and Durant (2017).
But odds unveiled by Covers.com show a different participant as the current Finals MVP favorite:
You're essentially choosing from Golden State's four All-Stars and James—although the inclusion of Nick Young as a +5,000 long shot is greatly appreciated.
James is an interesting option, even with his team having such little hope of winning. However, he's the only guy you can pencil in for Finals MVP-caliber numbers. His series scoring average could land in the high 30s, and he'll flirt with triple-doubles every night. He was on the losing end of the 2015 Finals and still secured four of the seven MVP votes, so it would be foolish to rule him out.
Paying less than full price for Durant seems almost too good to be true given the series he had last year (35.2 points on 55.6 percent shooting, 8.2 rebounds and 5.4 assists). Draymond Green is an interesting dart throw for his defensive responsibilities and volume of offensive chances. Klay Thompson's hot streaks are a sight to behold, and he might only need a couple to jump ahead in this race.
But this is the biggest piece missing from Curry's resume. And even when his numbers ebb and flow, he's still what makes this offense go (14.3 points better per 100 possessions with him than without). It'll be easier for him to get his wind on defense this time, too, since the threat of Irving has been removed.
Prediction: Curry Wins Finals MVP
Statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
