NBA Mock Draft 2018: Latest Projections for Polarizing Prospects
All NBA draft prospects' merits can be debated to some degree, but the arguments can get heated around the most polarizing of hoops hopefuls.
Just last summer, people wondered if Lauri Markkanen's offensive potential outweighed his defensive challenges. Or whether Donovan Mitchell's athleticism, defense and shot-making should silence concerns about a shaky handle and limited playmaking.
Part of the fun is knowing these polarizing players can hit—Markkanen and Mitchell were both named to what might be an all-time All-Rookie first team. But there's also an understanding of what can go wrong—Anthony Bennett went from non-consensus No. 1 pick in 2013 to looking for NBA work about as quickly as Bill Simmons let out his infamous "Whoa!" upon the selection's announcement.
The 2018 batch of budding ballers has already set off a storm of spirited disputes. After running through a one-round mock, we'll spotlight three of the most polarizing players on the board.
2018 NBA Mock Draft
1. Phoenix Suns: Luka Doncic, SG, Slovenia
2. Sacramento Kings: Deandre Ayton, C, Arizona
3. Atlanta Hawks: Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas
4. Memphis Grizzlies: Marvin Bagley III, PF/C, Duke
5. Dallas Mavericks: Jaren Jackson Jr., C, Michigan State
6. Orlando Magic: Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma
7. Chicago Bulls: Michael Porter Jr., SF/PF, Missouri
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Nets): Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama
9. New York Knicks: Wendell Carter, C, Duke
10. Philadelphia 76ers: Mikal Bridges, SF, Villanova
11. Charlotte Hornets: Miles Bridges, SF/PF, Michigan State
12. Los Angeles Clippers (via Pistons): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Kentucky
13. Los Angeles Clippers: Kevin Knox, SF, Kentucky
14. Denver Nuggets: Zhaire Smith, SF, Texas Tech
15. Washington Wizards: Robert Williams, C, Texas A&M
16. Phoenix Suns (via Heat): Aaron Holiday, PG, UCLA
17. Milwaukee Bucks: Lonnie Walker IV, SG, Miami
18. San Antonio Spurs: Troy Brown, SF, Oregon
19. Atlanta Hawks (via Timberwolves): Anfernee Simons, PG/SG, IMG Academy
20. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Thunder): Dzanan Musa, SG/SF, Bosnia & Herzegovina
21. Utah Jazz: Chandler Hutchison, SF, Boise State
22. Chicago Bulls (via Pelicans): Mitchell Robinson, C, USA
23. Indiana Pacers: Keita Bates-Diop, SF/PF, Ohio State
24. Portland Trail Blazers: Jacob Evans, SG/SF, Cincinnati
25. Los Angeles Lakers (via Cavs): Khyri Thomas, SG, Creighton
26. Philadelphia 76ers: Bruce Brown Jr., SG, Miami
27. Boston Celtics: Kevin Huerter, SG, Maryland
28. Golden State Warriors: Grayson Allen, SG, Duke
29. Brooklyn Nets (via Raptors): De'Anthony Melton, SG, USC
30. Atlanta Hawks (via Rockets): Melvin Frazier, SF, Tulane
Projections for Polarizing Prospects
Luka Doncic Goes No. 1
It's not often a top prospect wears the polarizing label, particularly in a class widely celebrated for its talent. But Doncic has both big fans in the scouting community and his share of doubters, too.
We like him at No. 1, given the Suns' need for a playmaker (30th in offensive efficiency, tied for 26th in assist percentage) and his connection to new head coach Igor Kokoskov. But if Doncic doesn't go first—a lot of mocks put Deandre Ayton on the top line—the Slovenian swingman might be in danger of slipping, as ESPN's Jonathan Givony reported:
"The growing consensus among NBA decision-makers ... is that the teams drafting behind the Phoenix Suns at No. 1, the Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks are likely to pass on European prodigy in favor of American frontcourt players. The question remains whether a team will trade up into the top three to snag Doncic, or if he will fall to the No. 4 (Memphis) or even the No. 5 pick (Dallas) after being heavily scouted in the Euroleague playoffs against Panathinaikos and mostly struggling."
Doncic's skeptics question his "speed and athleticism," according to Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman. Those are legitimate concerns, potentially leaving him exploited on the defensive end and unable to create shots for himself the way most think a No. 1 pick should.
Doncic's supporters, though, will say he's skilled enough to overcome any physical challenges. Advanced instincts, passing and feel for the game are common themes in his scouting reports, and his resume is getting harder to argue against.
As intriguing as the ceiling for an Ayton-Devin Booker duo might be, Doncic would give the worst team of the last three years a compelling identity. Roll him out with Booker and Josh Jackson and Phoenix would have a hyper-modern trio of 6'6"-plus playmakers sharing control of the offense.
Magic Gamble on Trae Young
The positives for Young make it sound like he belongs in the No. 1 pick discussion.
The 19-year-old made history as a college freshman, becoming the first player ever to lead the country in both points (27.4) and assists (8.7). Not only that, he flashed a number of tricks in the playbook of two-time MVP Stephen Curry, be it limitless shooting range, off-the-dribble splashing or passing with creativity and flair.
If you're the Magic, how do you say no to that? Your point guard rotation is only D.J. Augustin and—if his salary is guaranteed—Shelvin Mack. You had this season's 25th-ranked attack and haven't employed a 20-points-per-night scorer since Dwight Howard was manning the middle.
Orlando needs both the scoring and star potential of Young, but they'll need to accept his shortcomings.
He was one of the five shortest players at the combine (6'0.5" without shoes) and had the smallest wingspan there (6'3"). He's not an elite athlete by any stretch, which presents obvious challenges on defense and perhaps contributed to his second-half skid (39.3 percent shooting, 32.9 percent from three in 2018).
But his scoring, creating and outside shooting are promising enough he'll hear his name called early on draft night. Wasserman thinks Young could get a "real look" as early as No. 3 and said "it's difficult to picture" him getting past No. 6.
Bulls Bank on Michael Porter Jr.
Porter would scoff at the notion he's a polarizing prospect. He used to be regarded as arguably the top player in this class, and he doesn't think having his one-and-done college season effectively erased by back surgery should change anything.
"I'm still the best player," Porter told reporters at the combine. "I know without a doubt. I've played against all these guys. They're all great players. But I'm the best player in this draft and I can't wait to show what I'm capable of."
The confidence is what you'd expect from a player who has long been billed as an elite scorer in the making. His combine measurements (6'10.5" in shoes, 9'0.5" standing reach) also show how interesting he might be as a super-sized perimeter point-producer.
But Porter remains one of this group's trickiest prospects to evaluate, as The Athletic's Sam Vecenie broke down:
"Those brash words will likely do little to quash the perception of entitlement that NBA executives feel he has developed. The intel they're getting back is mixed from his time at Missouri, where questions have arisen about if he was a great teammate. When mixed with the early prep career questions about his toughness, it's a complicated picture for NBA evaluators to wade through.
"How much does this stuff matter when you're talking about a supremely gifted player who many evaluators feel could end up being a 20-plus point-per-game scorer based off his talent? Does it matter when Porter's game is basically a perfect fit for the modern NBA because of his ability to slide from the 3 through 5 positions? Remember: Similar questions were raised about Ben Simmons. That seems to have worked out just fine for Philadelphia, but every player is different."
The Bulls need size, length and outside shooting along the wings. And while they have some encouraging scorers—Markkanen and Zach LaVine (restricted free agent) chief among them—they might not have a full-fledged No. 1 option.
Provided Porter's medicals don't raise red flags, he'll check too many boxes for Chicago to overlook.
Statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Sports-Reference.com.
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