Rockets, Warriors Torch Opponents with Drastically Different Approaches
The Warriors and Rockets are the class of the NBA. The best of the West, they're thought of as the two titans of the three-point revolution. But this isn't just a battle of the two best teams in the NBA—it's two very different basketball philosophies coming to blows. Beauty and the beast.
Both teams love the three-pointer, sure, but the two really couldn't be more different. Looking at the frequency of where each team takes its shots, and how it compares to the rest of the league, it's quite apparent what the Rockets are trying to do. And perhaps a little surprising to learn the Warriors value a distribution of shots from all over the floor above maximizing the three-point shooting they have.
| Warriors | Rockets | |
| % At rim (rank) | 31.8 (26) | 35.0 (12) |
| % Mid-range (rank) | 36.9 (8) | 18.2 (30) |
| % Corner three (rank) | 5.6 (26) | 11.3 (1) |
| % Total three (rank) | 31.3 (14) | 46.7 (1) |
It's not just about where they get their shots but how they get them. The Warriors capitalize on incredible ball movement, cutting and passing lanes freed up by the terror they instill at the three-point line. When defenses are forced to overplay the likes of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant beyond the arc, the Warriors are more than happy to cut backdoor for a layup or keep the ball moving even beyond that.
The Rockets are an entirely different story. They are a machine. Now with two engines instead of one, Chris Paul and James Harden take turns isolating or running pick-and-roll. Go over the screen, and they'll get to the basket for a layup or lob. Go under, and it's a step-back three-pointer. There is no in-between. You know what's coming. You can't stop it.
"You know what's coming against them," Steve Kerr told reporters ahead of the conference finals. "They might disguise some things, but you know what's coming. It's going to be pick-and-roll over and over again, and they're good at it."
The Warriors, however, are more interested in variety. Getting easy shots and keeping the defense unsure of where they'll look to attack.
"I think our team, when they recognize mismatches, we tend to throw the ball to someone to take advantage of it," Warriors assistant Ron Adams explained of the Warriors offense in a February interview. "Whereas, there are times, even in those situations, where maybe if you keep moving the ball, you end up with an even simpler shot."
Don't get it twisted. The Warriors value the three-point line and the Rockets value the ball movement that can net them easy threes. Catch-and-shoot three-pointers made up 31.3 percent of the Rockets' total offense during the regular season, more than the Warriors' 23.9 percent. It's the in-between that separates these two.
While the Warriors move and flow, the Rockets are fine with letting the ball stick in one player's hands before launching a three-pointer. Thought of as a much more difficult shot, 35 percent of the Rockets offense comes after holding the ball for at least two seconds, nearly 10 percentage points more than the Warriors. It's antithetical to what your high school coach preached, but it allows them to get all those extra three-pointers.
The Rockets utilized the pull-up three-pointer more than any other team this season, lofting 18.2 attempts per game. That's nearly double the Warriors' 9.3 attempts, which ranked sixth in the NBA. The Rockets offense was built on these high-degree-of-difficulty shots, because they're still more valuable than the alternative.
That alternative is the mid-range shot, something the Warriors sneakily value more than you might think.
"They added Chris Paul," Kerr told reporters, "who shoots a lot of mid-range shots, [less] compared to himself in the past, but compared to where the Rockets were last year, I'm seeing him pull up from the elbows constantly against Utah, against Minnesota. Those are playoff shots. Sometimes in the playoffs, teams take away the three-point line, take away the rim, you need mid-range shots. What Chris has done is give them another dimension. Because James would rather get to the rim or shoot a three. Chris is great with that mid-range and it's made it harder to guard."
Even with the addition of the mid-range-happy Paul, the Rockets still shoot the fewest mid-range shots in the league. In fact, Paul decreased his mid-range attempt rate 11 percent to a career-low 42. He was in the 92nd percentile in mid-range frequency last year but dropped to the 65th percentile in his inaugural season with the Rockets.
"Early in the season, I pictured Daryl Morey cringing when he was taking those shots. But maybe halfway through the year, Daryl went, 'OK, we'll allow that, he's really good at it.' I've always believed that it's about good shots. It's not necessarily about how many threes they take, it's about getting good shots, and Chris is getting them good shots."
Even more impressive, their mid-range frequency has actually gone down a tick since last year. They've allowed Paul to get his elbow shots but trimmed the fat elsewhere to keep the machine running at full capacity.
Obviously, Kerr believes in offensive diversity. And with the mid-range shooting ability he has on his roster, that makes complete sense.
When you have Curry (54 percent, 100th percentile), Durant (50 percent, 98th percentile) and Thompson (48 percent, 94th percentile), and rotation pieces like David West (47 percent, 85th percentile) and Shaun Livingston (45 percent, 93rd percentile)—some of the league's best mid-range shooters—you're going to have mid-range shots preprogrammed into the offense. But even if they're shooting 45-plus percent on those shots, getting the extra point on a lower-percentage three-point shot results in more points. That is the math Morey and Co. are trying to bet on.
Take Durant, for example, one of the league's premier mid-range shooters who shoots 47.8 percent on pull-up mid-range shots from within the arc. If every one of those shots is worth two points, he averages 0.96 points per attempt. If the Rockets, as a team, are shooting 35.9 percent on pull-up three-pointers, they score 1.08 points per attempt. There's Morey's math for ya.
The Rockets are challenging conventional wisdom. In order to take down Superman, drastic measures must be taken. Morey has created a Bizarro version that is banking on the variance a three-point-heavy offense provides. But it's not all luck. He has put the pieces together that can make this thing work.
"They changed their focus," Kerr explained. "They went after defensive-minded guys who were decent three-point shooters instead of great three-point shooters who were decent defenders. So they balanced their roster out and became a better defensive team as a result."
PJ Tucker, a defensive stalwart, shot a career-high 3.8 three-pointers per game at a very respectable 37.1 percent during the regular season. Luc Mbah a Moute doubled his output from last year with the Clippers in three-pointers attempted per game. He has sacrificed some accuracy but still knocks them down at an above-average 36.4 percent clip. Adding these two switchable defenders has given the Rockets the versatility to match any style of play without sacrificing their three-point shooting.
The Rockets have their style and the Warriors have theirs. The math adds up, but it remains to be seen whether Morey's creation can win at a championship level. The Rockets are playing the odds, while the Warriors are a hyper-modern spin on basketball in its purest form. That's what makes this series so interesting.
Of course, the Warriors could adopt more of a Morey-ian philosophy. Maybe they'd be even better. Maybe there's more to it, and the value of that mid-range shot isn't as simple as three>two. Kerr certainly doesn't seem concerned.
"We do what we think is best for our team. We're comfortable with the way we play."
Stats via NBA.com, Cleaning the Glass and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted. Follow Will Gottlieb on Twitter: @wontgottlieb.
