UFC 224 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for Nunes vs. Pennington
UFC 224 contains some of the biggest names in Brazilian MMA right now.
The Rio de Janeiro card is set to go off on Saturday night with Amanda Nunes headlining in a title defense against Raquel Pennington. A win would mark Nunes' third consecutive defense since taking the title from Miesha Tate.
Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza will also fly the Brazilian flag against Kelvin Gastelum in a middleweight fight that could shape the title picture in the 185-pound division.
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Here's a look at the complete schedule and some of the biggest storylines.
Note: All odds via OddsShark.
Main Card (10 p.m. ET, PPV)
- Amanda Nunes (c) (-1000) vs. Raquel Pennington (+650)
- Kelvin Gastelum (+120) vs. Ronaldo Souza (-150)
- Amanda Cooper (+195) vs. Mackenzie Dern (-250)
- John Lineker (-260) vs. Brian Kelleher (+200)
- Vitor Belfort (+220) vs. Lyoto Machida (-280)
Preliminary Card (8 p.m. ET, FX)
- Cezar Ferreira (-110) vs. Karl Roberson (-120)
- Junior Albini (-160) vs. Alexey Oleinik (+130)
- Nick Hein (+125) vs. Davi Ramos (-155)
- Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-130) vs. Sean Strickland (+100)
Preliminary Card (6 p.m. ET, UFC Fight Pass)
- Warlley Alves (-260) vs. Sultan Aliev (+200)
- Jack Hermansson (-155) vs. Thales Leites (+125)
- Ramazan Emeev (-200) vs. Alberto Mina (+160)
- James Bochnovic (+235) vs. Markus Perez (-305)
Does Pennington Have Anything to Offer Nunes?
Amanda Nunes has been a champion for nearly two years, and with the introduction of the women's flyweight and featherweight divisions, the number of legitimate contenders at women's bantamweight is waning.
Pennington is here because she's the only contender who really makes sense. Riding a four-fight win streak, she has the best resume of anyone populating the top five in the division, but she hasn't shown championship skills during that run.
Wins over a shot Miesha Tate, Elizabeth Phillips, Bethe Correia and Jessica Andrade don't exactly inspire confidence that she's ready for the spotlight or Nunes' skills.
That being said, Nunes has shown holes in her game. Specifically, she doesn't have much experience getting out of the first round. Only Valentina Shevchenko and Cat Zingano have made it out of the first with the Lioness, and Zingano handed her the only loss she's taken in the UFC.
Nunes was able to tailor her style to Shevchenko's slower pace to take a decision the last time out. But Pennington can draw her into a firefight.
But the challenger's resume just doesn't inspire confidence she'll be able to do that. Nunes is a special athlete, and chances are she turns the lights out on "Rocky" before the first round is over.
Prediction: Nunes via first-round TKO
Is Kelvin Gastelum a Middleweight Contender?
Kelvin Gastelum has been a bit of an anomaly throughout his career.
Is he a welterweight? Is he a middleweight? Is he actually good?
Gastelum has bounced back and forth between the welterweight and middleweight divisions throughout his career, struggling to make the 170-pound limit. His last attempt was at UFC 200, where he weighed in at 171.25 pounds to fight Johny Hendricks.
He won the fight, but was he simply fortunate to fight Hendricks at the right time? Some of the biggest wins of his career include Michael Bisping, Vitor Belfort (although it was later overturned due to Gastelum testing positive for marijuana) and Hendricks, but all of them were nearing the ends of their careers.
Now, Gastelum will fight another aging fighter in Jacare Souza, but the Brazilian submission artist may have a little more in the tank than most of Gastelum's opponents. Jacare is the No. 2 middleweight at 38 years old.
Gastelum still has his eye on the welterweight division but is ready to prove he can fight for the title at middleweight.
"I keep winning and eventually I'm going to fight for the title at middleweight, which is crazy," Gastelum said, per Dave Doyle of MMA Fighting. "But yeah, in the back of my head, way in the back, I still have welterweight in mind."
He might need to slow his title ambitions, though. Unless Souza's chin is shot, odds are he's going to be able to withstand Gastelum's shots before he hits a takedown.
If this fight hits the mat, the end will follow soon after. There are few grapplers as dominant as Souza, and Gastelum isn't a world-beater in that department.
This fight should bring some reality to Gastelum's stock.
Prediction: Souza via second-round submission.
Who Has More Left? Belfort or Machida?
No, this isn't the Bellator Heavyweight Grand Prix or 2008. Vitor Belfort and Lyoto Machida will kick off a UFC pay-per-view in 2018.
The two middleweights are a combined 80 years old, with a combined 71 professional fights between them. This fight isn't a question of who is better, it's a question of who can still do what they used to.
Don't expect an action-packed fight here. Both are fighting at a glacial pace these days. Machida only lands 2.61 significant strikes per minute, yet his number exceeds Belfort's 1.63, per FightMetric.
Given these numbers, this bout should play out like a kickboxing sparring session.
If that's the case, it might favor the underdog Belfort. Machida still uses his passive karate style, waiting for the perfect time to counterstrike, but he's a step slower and has lost what little pop he used to have in his game.
Belfort, on the other hand, has always relied more on pure power, and that's often the last thing to go as a fighter ages.
Since The Phenom has said this is the last time he'll be gracing the Octagon, he may be more likely to pull the trigger than Machida as well.
"But this is my last fight, for sure, and I'm very content with what I accomplished in this sport," Belfort said, per MMAjunkie. "But I still believe I can contribute so much with the sport, and I love what the UFC is doing, creating the (UFC Performance Institute) and creating all that. But we have so much left to do."
Knowing this is his last fight, Belfort is going to look to go out on his shield, and he might just be able to string together enough power to cause the most damage.
Prediction: Belfort via decision
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