NBA Draft Lottery 2018: 1st-Round Odds and Mock Draft Before the Combine
Fans of NBA teams in the back half of the lottery shouldn't give up hope prior to the drawing and reveal on Tuesday.
In 1993, the Orlando Magic had the worst odds to get the No. 1 pick, but they somehow landed it for the second straight season and eventually parlayed that selection into point guard Penny Hardaway via trade.
Of course, fans of some teams that always seem to be on the outside looking in at a top-three selection (e.g. the New York Knicks) probably don't want to be given false hope, but there is a slight chance teams with lesser odds end up with the No. 1 pick.
Here's a look at all the NBA draft lottery odds, per NBA.com, as well as a look at what the Cleveland Cavaliers and Knicks might do if they somehow go first overall.
NBA Draft Lottery Odds for Top 3 and No. 1 Picks
1. Phoenix Suns: Top-three pick (64.2 percent), No. 1 pick (25.0 percent)
2. Memphis Grizzlies: Top-three pick (55.8 percent), No. 1 pick (19.9 percent)
3. Dallas Mavericks: Top-three pick (42.5 percent), No. 1 pick (13.8 percent)
4. Atlanta Hawks: Top-three pick (42.4 percent), No. 1 pick (13.7 percent)
5. Orlando Magic: Top-three pick (29.1 percent), No. 1 pick (8.8 percent)
6. Chicago Bulls: Top-three pick (18.3 percent), No. 1 pick (5.3 percent)
7. Sacramento Kings: Top-three pick (18.3 percent), No. 1 pick (5.3 percent)
8. Cleveland Cavaliers: Top-three pick (10.0 percent), No. 1 pick (2.8 percent)
9. New York Knicks: Top-three pick (6.1 percent), No. 1 pick (1.7 percent)
10. Philadelphia 76ers: Top-three pick (4.0 percent), No. 1 pick (1.1 percent)
11. Charlotte Hornets: Top-three pick (2.9 percent), No. 1 pick (0.8 percent)
12. Los Angeles Clippers: Top-three pick (2.5 percent), No. 1 pick (0.7 percent)
13. Los Angeles Clippers: Top-three pick (2.2 percent), No. 1 pick (0.6 percent)
14. Denver Nuggets: Top-three pick (1.8 percent), No. 1 pick (0.5 percent)
NBA Mock Draft: Lottery
1. Phoenix Suns: Arizona C Deandre Ayton
2. Memphis Grizzlies: Real Madrid PG/SG Luka Doncic
3. Dallas Mavericks: Duke F/C Marvin Bagley III
4. Atlanta Hawks: Michigan State F/C Jaren Jackson Jr.
5. Orlando Magic: Missouri SF/PF Michael Porter Jr.
6. Chicago Bulls: Texas C Mohamed Bamba
7. Sacramento Kings: Duke C Wendell Carter Jr.
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Brooklyn Nets and Boston Celtics): Oklahoma PG Trae Young
9. New York Knicks: Alabama PG/SG Collin Sexton
10. Philadelphia 76ers (via Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns): Villanova SF Mikal Bridges
11. Charlotte Hornets: Texas Tech G/F Zhaire Smith
12. Los Angeles Clippers (via Detroit Pistons): Texas A&M F Robert Williams
13. Los Angeles Clippers: Kentucky PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
14. Denver Nuggets: Cedevita Zagreb SF Dzanan Musa
NBA Mock Draft: Picks 15-30
15. Washington Wizards: Missouri C Jontay Porter
16. Phoenix Suns (originally via Miami Heat): Villanova PG Jalen Brunson
17. Milwaukee Bucks: C Mitchell Robinson (Chalmette High School)
18. San Antonio Spurs: Michigan State SF/PF Miles Bridges
19. Atlanta Hawks: Miami SG Lonnie Walker IV
20. Minnesota Timberwolves (originally via Oklahoma City Thunder): Kentucky SF/PF Kevin Knox
21. Utah Jazz: Boise State SF Chandler Hutchison
22. Chicago Bulls (via New Orleans Pelicans): Ohio State SF/PF Keita Bates-Diop
23. Indiana Pacers: USC PG/SG De'Anthony Melton
24. Portland Trail Blazers: Creighton SG Khyri Thomas
25. Los Angeles Lakers (originally via Cleveland Cavaliers): Oregon G Troy Brown
26. Philadelphia 76ers: Duke SG Gary Trent Jr.
27. Boston Celtics: Villanova F/C Omari Spellman
28. Golden State Warriors: UCLA G Aaron Holiday
29. Brooklyn Nets (originally via Toronto Raptors): IMG PG Anfernee Simons
30. Atlanta Hawks (originally via Houston Rockets): Villanova SG Donte DiVincenzo
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers have a big question mark on their hands this summer, as superstar LeBron James can opt out of his contract and become a free agent.
If he leaves, the team has to go into full rebuilding mode. If he stays, the Cavs should look to build around him for the rest of his career and try to find an eventual face of the franchise when the King departs.
Real Madrid guard Luka Doncic seems like the best fit for the team. The Cleveland Cavaliers could use a playmaking guard who is adept at creating his own shot off the dribble, getting his teammates involved and crashing the boards. Doncic checks off all those boxes, as he has the potential to be a triple-double threat on the NBA level.
A Doncic-James pairing would be must-see television and undoubtedly stretch James' career as he can take a break from assuming ball-handling and distributing duties.
However, taking Arizona center Deandre Ayton wouldn't be a bad bet either. The Cavs have had some trouble against taller centers when they go small, which was the case in the second round of the NBA playoffs against the Toronto Raptors.
Raps center Jonas Valanciunas went to work against Cavs big man Kevin Love, dropping 16.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. Of course, Love and the Cavs had the last laugh thanks to a four-game sweep, but having a player like Ayton on the team could bump Love out to power forward and give Cleveland a better chance of defending bigs in the post.
Although Ayton also showed potential of being a dominant offensive player on the next level (he posted 20.1 points on 61.2 percent shooting in his one season at Arizona), Doncic still seems like the better fit for Cleveland.
New York Knicks
The New York Knicks are in a state of flux right now after yet another tumultuous losing season.
Franchise cornerstone Kristaps Porzingis is recovering from a torn ACL. Point guard stability was non-existent as Jarrett Jack, Ramon Sessions, Frank Ntilikina, Emmanuel Mudiay and Trey Burke each took turns running the offense.
Enes Kanter and Michael Beasley both showed promise and carried the Knicks offense on some nights, but it's unclear as to whether they fit in the team's long-term plans.
In reality, it's hard to see most of the players on the current roster being on the team by the time this decade is over. Most importantly, New York needs to find some consistency at the most important position in the league right now, and that's at point guard.
You can't win without a strong floor general running the offense, a la Stephen Curry for the Golden State Warriors or James Harden and Chris Paul for the Houston Rockets. Point guard in the NBA is almost as important as quarterback in the NFL: If you don't have a longer-term solution at the position, you might be in trouble.
Therefore, the Knicks should take Doncic if they have the No. 1 pick, and he and Frank Ntilikina can form the backcourt of the future. Tim Hardaway Jr. would play small forward, and Porzingis would ideally be a small-ball center who would be a matchup nightmare for teams. The Knicks can then fill out the power forward slot with someone via free agency or trade.
It's not a coincidence that some of the best Knicks teams had good to great point guards running the show, like Walt "Clyde" Frazier in the late 1960s and early 1970s and Derek Harper in the mid-1990s. It's time for the Knicks to do their best and find a solution there.
