NBA Draft Lottery Rules: How The Process Works

The future of 14 NBA franchises hangs in the balance May 15, when the NBA draft lottery is drawn.

Unlike the NFL, where the worst team in the regular season automatically earns the No. 1 overall selection in the first round, the NBA hands out its top first-round choice through a lottery system. 

In past years, teams tried to manipulate the process by tanking and earning more combinations in the lottery itself. 

However, the NBA changed the rules, and after 2018, the landscape is going to change a bit with a more level playing field. 

Each franchise is assigned a group of four-digit combinations ahead of the lottery, which is drawn by four pingpong balls out of a lottery machine. 

The team with the winning combination receives the No. 1 overall pick and then has six weeks to evaluate all the prospects in the talent pool as it looks to alter its roster. 

In addition to the top pick, the second- and third-overall selections are drawn by the pingpong balls and are normally unveiled before a postseason game. 

Picks No. 4 through No. 14 are assigned based on the regular-season records of the remaining teams, with the worst of the 11 teams earning the fourth-overall pick. 

Entering the 2018 draft lottery, the Phoenix Suns have the best chance to walk away with the top selection, as they received 25 percent of the 1,001 possible combinations, per NBA.com.

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Memphis Grizzlies have a 19.9 percent chance of scoring the No. 1 pick, while Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks have a 13.8 and 13.7 percent chance, respectively. 

The odds for the No. 1 pick drastically decrease after Atlanta, as Orlando Magic's fifth-worst record gave them an 8.8 percent chance of winning the lottery, while Chicago Bulls sit at 5.3 percent. 

When the lottery format is revamped for the 2019 season, the three worst franchises in the NBA will all receive a 14 percent chance of earning the top selection. 

As they have in past years, trades are going to play a role in determining the official draft order, but which deals go into effect remain to be seen. 

The picks to watch in the 2018 lottery belong to the Los Angeles Lakers and Detroit Pistons, as contingencies were placed on their first-round selections. 

Where the Lakers end up is going to cause the most drama, as Boston Celtics or Philadelphia 76ers could receive their natural first-round pick. 

If the Lakers earn a pick landing in between No. 2 and No. 5, the Celtics earn it, while the Sixers gain the pick if Los Angeles receives another slot. 

Detroit is in a similar scenario, as it retains its first-round selection if it lands in the top four of the lottery. If the Pistons land at No. 5 or lower, the Los Angeles Clippers take ownership of the selection.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Since the Pistons possess a 0.7 percent shot at the No. 1 pick, the Clippers are likely going to hold two selections inside the lottery. 

As for trades that are set in stone no matter what, the Cleveland Cavaliers own Brooklyn Net's choice, which means the defending Eastern Conference champions hold odds of 2.8 percent to win the lottery. 

There are plenty of options at the top of the NBA draft talent pool, but the discussion is leaning toward Arizona center Deandre Ayton and Slovenian shooting guard/small forward Luka Doncic, who currently plays for Real Madrid in Spain. 

Duke should be the college with the most names called in the first round, with Marvin Bagley III, Wendell Carter Jr., Gary Trent Jr., Grayson Allen and Trevon Duval among the draft prospects. 

But before we get ahead of ourselves by looking at the skill sets of each prospect, we have to learn which team is picking No. 1, which will then lead to a further breakdown of the team's needs and the player who is the best fit. 

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