Auburn V LSU: Why The Long Faces? This One Looks Good!

Everyone knows going into this game that LSU is bigger, stronger, faster and just plain better than Auburn. I know this from the numerous articles I have read and prognosticators I have listened to this week. They say Auburn just doesn't stand a chance. I am going to take a look and see what evidence there is for this assumption.

Auburn is 5-2 and LSU is 5-1. They have played one less game and lost one less game. I wonder how those records would look if Auburn wins this game?

Auburn allows 182 rushing yards per game and LSU allows 130. Auburn allows 185 yards passing per game and LSU allows 193. Auburn allows 9.0 yards per punt return and LSU allows 7.5 yards per return. Auburn allows 25 yards per kickoff return LSU Allows 17 per return. Auburn punts six times per game LSU punts 5 times per game. Auburn allows opponents 73 plays per game LSU allows 70. Auburn gains 6 yards per play LSU gains 5 yards a play.

Assuming the LSU defense controls this game like everyone predicts let us see how this stacks up. Auburn gains 420 yards of offense and LSU gains 365 yards of offense. Based on the opponents allowed plays per game on defense and the average yards gained per play by each offense over the season. 

Auburn allows 5 yards per play on defense and 367 yards per game. Allowing that LSU has at least an average offense these numbers bare scrutiny. 

LSU allows 4.61 yards per play and 322.5 yards per game on defense this is an average and assuming Auburn has at least an average offense these numbers should hold scrutiny.

Auburn is ranked 8 out of 120 on offense and LSU is ranked 112 out of 120 on offense. Here is where the math gets fuzzy. Is 112 out of 120 average and is 8 out of 120 average? No they are not.

LSU is ranked 35 on total defense and Auburn 72 both out of 120. The question I ask here is Auburn's defense closer to the average 60 or LSU's offense?

The average ranking for LSU's opponents on defense is 56.5 out of 120. Auburn's opponents have averaged 58.2 out of 120. So the opponents were close on defensive capabilities.

The average offensive ranking for Auburn's opponents is 58 out of 120 and LSU's is 66 out of 120. The two teams average offensive opponent was close as well. 

LSU's average opponent team poll ranking as of this week is 59 out of 120. Auburn's opponents average team ranking is 61 out of 120. Again we find these close.

Out of the teams they have played LSU has lost to the number 1 team. Auburn lost to the number 50 and 51 ranked teams. If you remove the teams the two Tigers lost to Auburn has a decided edge on the quality of opponent they actually beat this season.

While number do lie at times and may not tell the story it is now over half way through the season and numbers at this point tend to be very accurate. 

Auburn is close in every category on defense with LSU. The quality of schedule at this point is virtually even. LSU has lost to their only opponent currently ranked and Auburn beat their only currently ranked opponent.

Auburn averages scoring 4 touchdowns per game. LSU scores 2 touchdowns per game. Remember this is against similar competition and if you remove the teams LSU lost to the competition actually falls down ten slots. If you remove the teams Auburn lost to it really starts to look unfair.

Other indicators in this game: Common Competition: Mississippi State :LSu beat them on a last second goal line stand. They just did not play that well against Auburn.

LSU has allowed 1.5 touchdowns per game. They allowed about that much to Florida and lost 13 to 3 in the only game they have played against similar offenses to Auburn's they have allowed 23 and 26 points.

As any one can see I have looked and looked hard, there is nothing in the statistics that would lead anyone to believe that LSU will easily win this game. In fact the statistics tell a completely different tale.

Other than a huge man love for the under performing Florida offense and redirecting this to LSU that scored a pathetic field goal on Florida I can see no reason for this Bengal Tiger Love Fest.  They are in good company here though, Charlston Southern scored only three on the Gators as well Charleston Southern put 323 yards on the mighty Gators, LSU only managed 162 total yards.

I see this one in a different light after doing some digging. I feel even better about Auburn's chances in this game! Don't You?