Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders: Final Vegas Odds and Projections for Top Horses
Favorites won the Kentucky Derby in each of the last five years, and there's a high probability of it happening again Saturday at Churchill Downs.
Justify and Mendelssohn, who are two of the most talked-about horses entering the race, share the favorite tag.
Justify has been at the top of the odds chart since Tuesday's post draw, and given the amount of hype he's received, it's hard to think he won't have the lowest odds at post time.
However, the odds can only tell us so much, which leaves the door open for endless possibilities during the two minutes on the course.
1. Firenze Fire (+6600)
2. Free Drop Billy (+3500)
3. Promises Fulfilled (+5000)
4. Flameaway (+4500)
5. Audible (+650)
6. Good Magic (+800)
7. Justify (+350)
8. Lone Sailor (+5000)
9. Hofburg (+1500)
10. My Boy Jack (+1800)
11. Bolt d'Oro (+850)
12. Enticed (+2500)
13. Bravazo (+6000)
14. Mendelssohn (+350)
15. Instilled Regard (+6000)
16. Magnum Moon (+750)
17. Solomini (+2200)
18. Vino Rosso (+1200)
19. Noble Indy (+3000)
20. Combatant (+6600)
Projections for Top Horses
Justify
Justify comes into the Kentucky Derby with the most hype, but he's also a relative unknown since he's competed in just three races.
Trainer Bob Baffert believes everything is there for Justify to become horse racing's next star, per Jason Frakes of the Louisville Courier-Journal.
"He's always been a superior animal," Baffert said. "When they're that big and beautiful and then they can run and the way he's bred, all the ingredients are there. Now we just need some racing luck."
One of the favorites to win Saturday has the opportunity to break the "Curse of Apollo," which dates back to 1882.
Justify is attempting to become the first horse since Apollo to capture the Kentucky Derby title without racing as a two-year-old.
The horse nicknamed "Big Red" looked the part of a champion at the Santa Anita Derby, but the Kentucky Derby is much harder to conquer.
If Justify handles the pressure in tight quarters to start the race, he should maneuver his way through the pack into a winning position.
Prediction: Winner
Audible
When it comes to direct challengers to Justify, Audible appears to be in position to give the favorite his toughest test.
As one of four entries from trainer Todd Pletcher, Audible sits two spots to the left of Justify in the starting paddock, which means he'll have an eye on the favorite from the second the gates drop.
Audible comes into the Kentucky Derby with two solid wins in the Holy Bull Stakes and Florida Derby, with the latter being won as a heavy favorite.
Unlike Justify, Audible could receive help from the other horses trained by Pletcher if the race goes as planned.
Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy might have a hard time linking up with Audible from their outside starting posts, but if they combine at the right time, it could put more pressure on Justify.
However, it's hard to guarantee that possibility given the distance between the starting spots of the four Pletcher horses.
Audible has the strength to attack the field on his own, but he might not have enough to keep up with Justify.
Prediction: Third
Mendelssohn
When it comes to unknowns, Mendelssohn might the biggest since most of his success has come overseas.
The Irish-trained horse has seen his odds drop throughout the week, and entering Saturday he's even with Justify.
In the races he's entered, Mendelssohn flexed his muscle with victories in the UAE Derby and Patton Stakes.
One of the main concerns surrounding Mendelssohn is how he reacts to racing on American soil in a crowded field.
He won the Breeders Cup juvenile turf in 2017, but outside of that, he doesn't have a huge sample size in the United States.
If he captures the first leg of the Triple Crown, Mendelssohn will do so out of an unfavorable starting spot at gate No. 14.
While it may be seen as a hindrance to his status as a contender by some, Mendelssohn could use the space on the outside to challenge Justify, Audible and a few others late in the race.
Prediction: Fourth
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from KentuckyDerby.com.
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