Kentucky Derby 2018 Post Positions: Odds and Race Outlook for Entire Field
Parity defines the 2018 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, where Saturday's 144th Run for the Roses boasts a great unknown when it comes to an eventual winner.
Compared to recent years, there isn't a dominant favorite. There's no Victor Espinoza atop a California Chrome sure to make the rest of the field look silly. Bob Baffert hasn't trained up an American Pharoah for a predictable result.
It shows in the lines from oddsmakers in Las Vegas too. A few names obviously have better chances than others, but no horse/jockey tandem seems 100 percent out of the running a few days from the gates opening at 6:46 p.m ET.
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Here's the field, with odds via OddsShark:
1. Firenze Fire: 66-1 (Jockey: Paco Lopez)
2. Free Drop Billy: 35-1 (Jockey: Robby Albarado)
3. Promises Fulfilled: 40-1 (Jockey: Corey Lanerie)
4. Flameaway: 50-1 (Jockey: Jose Lezcano)
5. Audible: 13-2 (Jockey: Javier Castellano)
6. Good Magic: 8-1 (Jockey: Jose Ortiz)
7. Justify: 7-2 (Jockey: Mike Smith)
8. Lone Sailor: 50-1 (Jockey: James Graham)
9. Hofburg: 15-1 (Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.)
10. My Boy Jack: 18-1 (Jockey: Kent Desormeaux)
11. Bolt d'Oro: 17-2 (Jockey: Victor Espinoza)
12. Enticed: 25-1 (Jockey: Junior Alvarado)
13. Bravazo: 60-1 (Jockey: Luis Contreras)
14. Mendelssohn: 7-2 (Jockey: Ryan Moore)
15. Instilled Regard: 60-1 (Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke)
16. Magnum Moon: 15-2 (Jockey: Luis Saez)
17. Solomini: 22-1 (Jockey: Flavien Prat)
18. Vino Rosso: 12-1 (Jockey: John Velazquez)
19. Noble Indy: 30-1 (Jockey: Florent Geroux)
20. Combatant: 66-1 (Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.)
Justify is arguably the biggest name to know going into the weekend.
Naturally, Justify is a Baffert colt. The man who trained American Pharoah to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978 now sends Justify to Louisville with Mike Smith up top, a tantalizing combo given the former's recent performances and the latter's long history in the sport.
Justify won a couple lesser races to start 2018, then blew the competition out of the water in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in early April, including Derby contender Bolt d'Oro.
As Matt Dinerman of Golden Gate Fields pointed out, Justify doesn't need perfect developments to go out and win a race:
One of the biggest challengers for Justify is Mendelssohn, who doubles as arguably the best story in the field. The Aidan P. O'Brien-trained colt is trying to become the first European-trained winner in Derby history.
His track record looks good so far, with Mendelssohn boasting seven races dating back to July, including three recent wins in a row. Most important is the Grade 2 UAE Derby in Dubai, which has those around the contender pointing out it should translate well to Churchill Downs.
"It's the first time he's been in front today and he's still a horse that's learning, so he was still a bit green in places," jockey Ryan Moore said, according to CNN.com's Danielle Rossingh. "It was his first run on dirt, so that was huge for him, and it was his first time at this trip, so that was another question mark."
Another contender like Audible will have something to say about the history-seeking European offering though.
Audible and those around him are riding the wave. Jockey Javier Castellano is one of the best in the business. Todd Pletcher trained last year's winner, Always Dreaming. To top it all off, riding out of the fifth slot when the gates open is an advantageous position to land.
Good Magic is another name to keep in mind out of the sixth slot next to Audible, an Eclipse Award-winning colt. Jose Ortiz rides atop the winner of April's Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes that featured Derby contenders such as Flameaway.
Pletcher's other contender, Magnum Moon, boasts some of the best odds going into the weekend in large part thanks to four consecutive wins, including the highlight at the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. The notable hiccup worth pointing out though is the quick turnaround coming out of that last race, which occurred April 14.
Rounding out the must-mention list is the Mick Ruis-trained Bolt d'Oro. Espinoza will be up top, meaning instant contention for the pair, though the colt's win in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes and second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby is a strong bit of momentum that's perhaps poised to become a trend.
There isn't a clear-cut favorite to win Saturday's event, with even long shots like Instilled Regard boasting some interesting traits. Options are a good thing for bettors ahead of the start, while the sport doesn't mind the parity either—provided the eventual winner can morph into a serious Triple Crown contender.
Stats and info courtesy of KentuckyDerby.com unless otherwise specified.
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