Kentucky Derby 2018 Odds: Best and Worst Horse-Jockey Tandems to Bet

When considering a bet in any horse race, handicappers know the speed of the horse is just one factor to consider.

There are many other variables, including the type of race the horse prefers to run. Does he like to jump to the lead or come from behind? Does he stalk the pace before making his move?

The jockey plays a huge role in the way a race turns out. He must know exactly when to make his move. He must keep his horse out of traffic and avoid getting blocked or trapped by the other horses.

Experience is a huge factor, but physical strength, decisiveness and excellent vision may be even more important when it comes to directing the horse in its journey around the race track.

All of these elements may be even more important in the Kentucky Derby than most horse races because the field is crowded with 20 competitors. Standard races typically feature eight runners or fewer.

Here we take a look at the most imposing and least threatening horse-and-jockey combinations.

Kentucky Derby Field 

1. Firenze Fire, Paco Lopez (+6,600)

2. Free Drop Billy, Robby Albarado (+3,300)

3. Promises Fulfilled, Corey Lanerie (+4,000)

4. Flameaway, Jose Lezcano (+4,000)

5. Audible, Javier Castellano (+550)

6. Good Magic, Jose Ortiz (+900)

7. Justify, Mike Smith (+350)

8. Lone Sailor, James Graham (+5,000)

9. Hofburg, Irad Ortiz (+1,600)

10. My Boy Jack, Kent Desormeaux (+2,200)

11. Bolt d'Oro, Victor Espinoza (+900)

12. Enticed, Junior Alvarado (+2,500)

13. Bravazo, Luis Contreras (+5,000)

14. Mendelssohn, Ryan Moore (+400)

15. Instilled Regard, Drayden Van Dyke (+5,000)

16. Magnum Moon, Luis Saez (+700)

17. Solomini, Flavian Pratt (+2,000)

18. Vino Rosso, John Velazquez (+1,400)

19. Noble Indy, Florent Geroux (+2,800)

20. Combatant, Ricardo Santana (+6,600)

Odds via OddsShark.

Analysis

Justify is the +300 favorite in the race, and this is not only a brilliant horse-and-jockey combination. Those who back these two also get the benefit of having a world-class trainer in Bob Baffert. He excels at preparing his horses to run big races.

The colt has won all three of the races he has entered, and Mike Smith is a Hall of Fame jockey. He has also won two Eclipse awards as the jockey of the year. His mounts have won more than $309 million during his career, and he has competed in more than 33,000 races.

Those numbers are impressive, but Smith's ability to avoid the trouble spots on the track give him a chance to win this year's Run for the Roses.

Mendelssohn and Ryan Moore appear to be an excellent combination for trainer Aidan O'Brien. Mendelssohn's credentials include a huge win in the UAE Derby by 18 ½ lengths in late March, and that makes him a formidable runner.

Moore is one of Europe's top jockeys, having won the Epsom Derby, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, the Irish and English Oaks, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He is a three-time champion flat jockey of Britain.

Hofburg and Irad Ortiz Jr. also deserve strong consideration as a betting combination. Hofburg is trained by respected William Mott, who is known for his patience and will not rush a horse to the race track before he is ready. That tells observers Hofburg is prepared to run a strong race in the Derby.

Ortiz is an excellent jockey whose mounts have already won more than $6.5 million in 2018 and more than $123 million throughout his career. The 25-year-old had more wins than any other jockey in the nation last year, and he ranked third in earnings.

On the other side of the equation, Firenze Fire and Paco Lopez are starting from the No. 1 post position, and that's an issue in the 20-horse field. Any type of slow start could force Firenze Fire to the back of the pack rather quickly.

Firenze Fire is a +6,600 long shot, and he finished fourth in the Wood Memorial this year. He has won just one of his four races in 2018. Lopez is a fine jockey who won close to $10 million in 2016 and 2017, but he may not be able to work much magic with a horse that may be in over its head in this race.

Instilled Regard is another horse that is attempting to challenge the best three-year-olds in the sport, and Drayden Van Dyke will try to guide him to a major upset. Instilled Regard finished fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, and he has won just two of seven races in his career.

Van Dyke had more than $6 million in earnings in 2014, when he was an apprentice, but he has failed to reach that level in any year since. He ranked 40th in earnings last year, and he does not appear to be ready to compete against the sport's best jockeys.